【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 增幅落后于大盤。第三類是招商銀行。招商銀行在2007年股價(jià)漲幅仍高達(dá)227. 08%，遠(yuǎn)高于上證A股指數(shù)，在6家銀行中僅次于浦發(fā)銀行，這表明招商銀行的股價(jià)很可能被市場高估了。招商銀行是中國最早實(shí)施零售銀行發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)戰(zhàn)略性轉(zhuǎn)型的商業(yè)銀行，其非利息凈收入占比約為15%，在股份制商業(yè)銀行中名列榜首，并獲得了“中國最佳銀行”、“中國最佳零售銀行”、“中國本土最佳現(xiàn)金管理銀行”、“中國最受尊敬企業(yè)”“中國最具發(fā)展?jié)摿ζ髽I(yè)”等一系列榮譽(yù)。招商銀行卓越的品牌形象和社會(huì)地位，為其贏得了資本市場的投資偏好。 對EVA計(jì)算結(jié)果的分析—EVA與商業(yè)銀行未來增長價(jià)值的分析 EVA不僅能反映企業(yè)當(dāng)期的價(jià)值創(chuàng)造能力，而且通過EVA指標(biāo)體系的擴(kuò)展還能對企業(yè)未來增長價(jià)值進(jìn)行一定的分析。企業(yè)經(jīng)營的終極目標(biāo)是股東財(cái)富最大化。對上市公司來說，股東財(cái)富最大化就是公司市場價(jià)值最大化。上市公司股票價(jià)格由公司當(dāng)前價(jià)值(現(xiàn)實(shí)盈利)和未來價(jià)值(增長預(yù)期)兩個(gè)部分構(gòu)成。同樣，公司的市場價(jià)值((MV)也可分解為兩個(gè)部分：當(dāng)前營運(yùn)價(jià)值 (COV)和未來增長價(jià)值(FGV)。 (1) 當(dāng)前營運(yùn)價(jià)值(COV)借助EVA貼現(xiàn)模型，可以將COV定義為：在維持現(xiàn)有價(jià)值創(chuàng)造能力不變(即EVA不變)的情況下公司當(dāng)前的價(jià)值，用公式表示：COV=權(quán)益資本十將當(dāng)期EVA作為以后各期盈利標(biāo)準(zhǔn)并按設(shè)定的資本成本率折現(xiàn) 銀行名稱COV2006年EVAWACCTC浦發(fā)銀行%民生銀行%招商銀行%華夏銀行%中國銀行%工商銀行%資料來源:根據(jù)各銀行公開披露的年報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)。從表2看，2007年商業(yè)銀行股價(jià)總體上保持較快增長，但與當(dāng)年上證A股指數(shù)的增長相比，增幅的差異較大。大致可分為三類情況： 第一類是浦發(fā)銀行、華夏銀行和民生銀行。2007年，浦發(fā)銀行、華夏銀行的股價(jià)漲幅遠(yuǎn)高于上證A股指數(shù)的漲幅，民生銀行股價(jià)漲幅也高于上證A股指數(shù)。這表明在2006年末，這三家銀行(尤其是浦發(fā)銀行和華夏銀行)的股價(jià)被低估了，市場經(jīng)過一個(gè)階段的價(jià)值挖掘，使其股價(jià)向真實(shí)水平回歸。 第二類是中國銀行和工商銀行。中國銀行和工商銀行的股價(jià)在2007年雖有所增長，但增幅遠(yuǎn)小于上證A股指數(shù)。一個(gè)合理的解釋是，這兩家銀行都是在2006年進(jìn)行IPO的，市場對其公開上市后未來增長的較高預(yù)期已提前反映在2006年的股價(jià)中了，從而導(dǎo)致其2007年的增幅落后于大盤。結(jié)論 本文首先闡述了EVA的起源和發(fā)展，以及選擇商業(yè)銀行開展EVA研究的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義，對國內(nèi)外關(guān)于EVA有效性實(shí)證研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了綜述。然后，對EVA的本質(zhì)內(nèi)涵和理論來源進(jìn)行了論述，提出了企業(yè)主權(quán)理論和經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤理論是EVA理論的會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)淵源和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)淵源的觀點(diǎn)，并對從經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤、剩余收益到EVA的理論發(fā)展脈絡(luò)進(jìn)行了梳理。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文對我國商業(yè)銀行EVA績效評價(jià)模型的構(gòu)建進(jìn)行了研究。EVA績效評價(jià)模型主要取決于三個(gè)因素：稅后凈經(jīng)營利潤、資本總額和資本成本率。本文選取2006年在上海證券交易所上市的浦發(fā)銀行、民生銀行、招商銀行、華夏銀行、中國銀行、工商銀行等6家銀行作為研究樣本，以其公開披露的年度財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)和大智慧證券分析系統(tǒng)提供的股價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。主要研究成果概括如下：測算出各家銀行的每股EVA，得出的結(jié)論是：由于考慮了資本結(jié)構(gòu)和資本成本率因素，以及通過會(huì)計(jì)項(xiàng)目調(diào)整減少了對利潤指標(biāo)的人為干預(yù)，EVA比傳統(tǒng)績效評價(jià)指標(biāo)更真實(shí)地揭示了商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力，是商業(yè)銀行價(jià)值創(chuàng)造的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。 將每股EVA,與商業(yè)銀行年末股票價(jià)格，以及年末到年報(bào)公布前后的股票價(jià)格變動(dòng)情況進(jìn)行了比較。得出的結(jié)論是：EVA與商業(yè)銀行股票價(jià)格之間存在一定的關(guān)聯(lián)性，EVA所揭示的當(dāng)年的價(jià)值創(chuàng)造能力在跨年度的股票價(jià)格變動(dòng)中有所反映。 致謝本文是在李奇志老師的悉心指導(dǎo)下完成的，從選題和研究方案，提煉到最終成稿，李老師提出了許多重要的意見，給予了有力的指導(dǎo)和幫助。他深厚的學(xué)術(shù)造詣嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)闹螌W(xué)態(tài)度和寬厚待人的品格，給我留下了深刻的印象，使我受益匪淺。在此一并感謝在我四年專業(yè)學(xué)習(xí)期間和論文寫作過程中給予指導(dǎo)和幫助的各位老師和同學(xué)。感謝我的家人給予的支持，使我有比較充裕的時(shí)間安心完成學(xué)業(yè)和論文寫作。 參考文獻(xiàn)[1] Milunovich amp。 Tseui A． EVA in the Computer Industy[J].Journal of Applied Corporate Finance． 1996, (9)：104115．[2]Chen S amp。 Dodd J．L． Economic Value Added (EVATM)：An Empirical Examination of A New Corporate Performance Measure[J]．Journal of Managerial Issues, 1997[3] Stern J． M.，Shirly J． S　Ross I EVA Challenge：Implementing ValueAdded Change in An Organization[J] John Wiley amp。 Sons, Inc 2001．[4] Kleiman R T． Some New Evidence on EVA Companies [J]．Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1999,(12)：8091．[5]蘭永．2005．EVA在中國上市公司應(yīng)用價(jià)值的研究(博士論文)．[6]易傳和，邦麗莎．，2007, (1)：6163．[7]甘秋瑾．2006．EVA在商業(yè)銀行業(yè)績評價(jià)中的應(yīng)用(碩士論文)．[8]：存在一個(gè)具體的比例嗎[J].財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué)，2006, (3)：18.附錄EVA (Economic Value Added) Economic Value Added that is a certain period of time aftertax net profit of enterprises with investment capital of the difference between the cost of capital， used to measure the volume of business to the increase in wealth, which in fact is reflected in a certain period of time profits of Economics。 Specifically：EVA = have been put into the benefits of capital has invested capital the weighted average cost of capital， if the value of EVA is positive， it means that the pany gains more than its capital weighted capital，that is，operators shareholders to create a new value； if EVA is negative，it undermines the interests of the shareholders， in fact， embodied in EVA is wellknown economist Marshall as early as 100 years ago，the “economic benefits”concept， but more operational EVA of it。EVA is that it39。s contribution to economics and management science for a bridge between，can be expected，the EVA used in the operator39。s performance evaluation， performance evaluation may lead to a revolution，and deeply influence the manager Incentive mechanisms for innovation。 One based on EVAbased performance appraisal system characteristics and advantages。With the traditional performance evaluation system pared to the use of EVA for performance evaluation， with distinct characteristics and obvious advantages, in fact, it is characterized by the location of its superiority。To sum up， the superiority of its main performance characteristics of that in the following areas： EVA is not generally accepted accounting criteria， the user can make an appropriate adjustment on the basis of need to obtain a relatively accurate data， thereby reducing the Accounting Standards arising from distortions in performance。EVA because， despite the current profit and loss account in the concept of accounting profits, but there are fundamental differences between the two：(1) as a result of EVA used in the calculation of the have been put into the capital“ is the equity interest with all the shortterm liabilities and longterm liabilities and，therefore calculation of EVA is the cost of containing the cost of liabilities，but also the cost of the rights and interests。However， according to GAAP in the preparation of the profit and loss account，the profit is deducted from the cost of the debt，which is obviously inplete。 (2) EVA and accounting profit basis upon which the cost of puting is very different， because “the capital have been put into” the concept of strategy involved in some of the cost of capital. For example, in accordance with GAAP， “R amp。 D costs” as the cost of dealing with the period， and the fact that the input and the construction of fixed assets is similar，so as EVA has invested capital。Similar needs of the cost of capital also includes some marketing costs，training and reconstruction costs。 A result of this approach will help the operator to grasp the true profit of the cost base，calculated by the EVA is inherently more economically rational。 (3) Even if the operator does not exist in order to achieve some kind of accounting information for the purposes of the act for a cosmetic， GAAP itself is inevitably distorted corporate profits and the determination of the cost。 For example， GAAP does not change the amount of deferred ine tax items included in net ine，and EVA is included in the requirements，it i