【正文】 CuhlsFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe,. Harold A. Linstone, the Chief Editor of TSFC, asked me to ment on the “brain drain” from Germany. He read an article in the New York Times (February 6, 2007) and seemed to be relatively astonished that “government data show that 144,800 Germans emigrated in 2005, more people leaving than returning. In particular, doctors, engineers, and architects are leaving, according to the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.”The discussion is not new, but now seems to have spread across the ocean. It is often thought that brain drain is typical for developing countries or countries in transition and so the problem was ignored at first in Germany, too. But it was noticed that it is more than a challenge, because in the knowledgeintensive economies of today, good brains are needed, knowledge is a “must”. Meanwhile, the problem is wellknown to the government, but there are only partial answers as yet. But what is a brain drain? The emigration from Germany has many reasons. Maybe there are too many facets and I am not a specialist in this field of , from the futurist39。s point of view, the development is crucial to science, technology, society and the economy. As far as we currently know – or better: assume – mainly specialists leave the country, scientists, medical doctors, engineers, but sometimes even “Facharbeiter”, specialists in crafts or elsewhere. Most people who leave are well educated and they will be sorely missed in the future. There are even TV programmes, mainly from private providers, with documentaries or better “Doku Soaps” which regularly describe how Germans start a new life in a foreign country (. “Goodbye Deutschland”, VOX). They describe the lives of specialists who move in order to foster their career, but also of unemployed persons who need to find a job and ine elsewhere. But let us start with the definition and some statistics of the present.1. Some statistics “Brain drain” is defined differently by different authors, . by Docquier and Marfouk as the “proportion of workingage individuals (aged 25 and over) with at least tertiary education, born in a given country but living elsewhere”. Migration has always taken place and there are different forms of migration.Some forms have to do with brain drain, because the specialists, and “good brains” leave, other types are more prehensive (. refugees, deportations, struggling for an existence, wars, environmental problems etc.).Some authors define “brain drain” via the loss to the source country, others define broader reasons. In most cases, people seem to migrate because their physical existence is in danger, or the institutional structure of society cannot fulfil their material and economic wishes and expectations, or the ideas for their life cannot be realised under the current political–ideological system. We also have permanent migration, nonpermanent migration and “circulation”. The last ones are . muters or the German former “Gastarbeiter” (“guest workers” who were expected to return home). What we are discussing here is a special case of brain drain which some call “innovation migration”, that is, migration in search of the new. The effects of brain drain are unexplored so that “until recently and despite much anecdotal evidence, nobody was able to estimate the cost of the brain drain and the size of its feedback effects for sending countries”. Some even argue that there are positive effects for the country of origin, . the “positive signal in the country of origin that motivates to acquire more education, thereby raising human capital and possibly promoting growth” Sometimes it is even doubted that “brain drain” is the right word for the phenomenon. But what do we really know about the phenomenon? The problem is that we have no statistics about the people who leave the country or federal state (means from one federal state inside Germany to the other), we only have the numbers. What is their background? How long do they intend to stay elsewhere? Where do they go and why?Even in Germany, we have strong and poor regions so that a kind of brain drain can take place. Or do the people leave for an “internal” migration in themselves? They physically stay but their mind is absent. The last point sounds ridiculous, but it is not if you look at the many unemployed persons and the debate about working women in Germany.Germany still has a high unemployment rate with about 4 million persons unemployed. The number is currently decreasing because of better economic perspectives, but economic renewal is still unstable and can change. Most of the unemployed are not well educated, or educated in a wrong “discipline” or subject — or just unemployed for so long that nobody is willing to invest in their reeducation. In spite of this unemployment, there is already a lack of welleducated personnel in certain sectors. That means that Germany39。s problem is also one of structural unemployment. And in the longterm perspective, the lack of personnel in the natural sciences, engineers, and in medicine will increase even more. Even economists or political scientists are already missing in some specific fields. This shortage of personnel will increase in the future because Germany is undergoing a severe demographic change at the moment: more people older than 60, fewer children. This is currently detected again by German family policy, especially as it was noted that the more highly educated people in the country are not having children anymore. And if they do, then at later stages of their life — which contributes again to the demographic change. Demographics always change over time, but this case means a structural shift and therefore family policy tries to react by financing better childcare, via socalled “parent money” (Elterngeld) paid for a limited time to allow maternal or paternal leave but makes people return to