運籌學(xué)與供應(yīng)鏈管理-第2講(編輯修改稿)
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【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 17 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 15 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 加權(quán)移動平均之例 月份 權(quán)重 數(shù)據(jù) 八月 17% 130 九月 33% 110 十月 50% 90 十一月的預(yù)測 3 130 50 90 0 33 110 0 17 130103 4WMA W Di ii??? ? ???( . )( ) ( . )( ) ( . )( ). 318 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 指數(shù)平滑法 ?假設(shè) —最近的觀測具有最高的預(yù)測價值 . – 因此在預(yù)測時，應(yīng)該給更近的數(shù)據(jù)賦予更高的權(quán)重 . Ft = Ft1 + ?(At1 Ft1) 319 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 時期 實際數(shù)據(jù) A l p h a = 0 . 1 誤差 A l p h a = 0 . 4 誤差1 422 40 42 2 . 0 0 42 23 43 4 1 . 8 1 . 2 0 4 1 . 2 1 . 84 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 25 41 4 1 . 7 3 0 . 7 3 4 1 . 1 5 0 . 1 56 39 4 1 . 6 6 2 . 6 6 4 1 . 0 9 2 . 0 97 46 4 1 . 3 9 4 . 6 1 4 0 . 2 5 5 . 7 58 44 4 1 . 8 5 2 . 1 5 4 2 . 5 5 1 . 4 59 45 4 2 . 0 7 2 . 9 3 4 3 . 1 3 1 . 8 710 38 4 2 . 3 6 4 . 3 6 4 3 . 8 8 5 . 8 811 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 5 3 1 . 5 312 4 1 . 7 3 4 0 . 9 2指數(shù)平滑法舉例 320 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 選擇平滑常數(shù) 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Pe r i o dDemand? ? .1 ? ? .4 實際數(shù)據(jù) 321 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程 ? b ＝ 直線斜率 Yt = a + bt 0 1 2 3 4 5 t Y b = n (ty) t y n t 2 ( t) 2 a = y b t n ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 322 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程舉例 t y 周 t2 銷售 ty 1 1 150 150 2
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