運(yùn)籌學(xué)與供應(yīng)鏈管理-第2講-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 hts reserved. Forecasting 指數(shù)平滑法 ?假設(shè) —最近的觀測(cè)具有最高的預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)值 . – 因此在預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)，應(yīng)該給更近的數(shù)據(jù)賦予更高的權(quán)重 . Ft = Ft1 + ?(At1 Ft1) 319 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 14 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting ? 平穩(wěn)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù) – F(t) = A(t1) ? 季節(jié)變動(dòng) – F(t) = A(tn) ? 長期趨勢(shì)數(shù)據(jù) – F(t) = A(t1) + (A(t1) – A(t2)) 簡單預(yù)測(cè)法應(yīng)用 313 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè) ? 長期趨勢(shì) –數(shù)據(jù)的長期移動(dòng) ? 季節(jié)性變動(dòng) – 數(shù)據(jù)短期規(guī)則變化 ? 不規(guī)則變動(dòng) – 異常情況引起的變動(dòng) ? 隨機(jī)變動(dòng) – 各種可能性引起的變動(dòng) 310 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 好的預(yù)測(cè)方法的基本要素 適時(shí) 精度 可靠 書面 36 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 預(yù)測(cè) : ? 是關(guān)于未來的描述 ? 預(yù)測(cè)用于幫助管理人員 – 系統(tǒng)計(jì)劃：產(chǎn)品服務(wù)的類型、設(shè)施配置、 廠址選擇 – 實(shí)施計(jì)劃：庫存、勞動(dòng)力、采購、生產(chǎn)進(jìn)度 33 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 第２講 需求預(yù)測(cè) 32 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 35 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 主觀預(yù)測(cè) ? 經(jīng)理人員的意見 ? 與顧客直接接觸人員的意見 ? 消費(fèi)者調(diào)查 ? 其它預(yù)測(cè)方法 –德爾非法 Delphi method 39 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting ? 簡單易用 ? 基本上不需要成本 ? 不需要數(shù)據(jù)分析 ? 容易理解 ? 不能提供較高的精度 ? 能夠作為衡量精度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 簡單預(yù)測(cè)法 312 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The
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