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【正文】 l Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 回歸方法 ? 研究兩個(gè)或更多變量之間的關(guān)系 ? 因變量隨自變量而變 329 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting MAD amp。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 線性回歸之例 x y xy x2 4 16 6 36 6 36 8 424 64 6 264 36 7 49 5 195 25 7 49 49 311 )7())(()(8311))()(8(88497222???????????????????????yxyxbyaxnxyxnxybyx 331 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 季節(jié)性調(diào)節(jié)之例 需求 (1000件／季度 ) 年 1 2 3 4 總計(jì) 1995 1996 1997 總計(jì) Si 趨勢(shì)直線 y = + x 1998 (第 4年 )的預(yù)測(cè) = + (4) = 1998 1 1 42 0148 7 0 28S D D? ? ?? . . .SF1 = (S1) (F5) = ()() = SF2 = (S2) (F5) = ()() = SF3 = (S3) (F5) = ()() = SF4 = (S4) (F5) = ()() = 326 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 時(shí)期 實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù) A l p h a = 0 . 1 誤差 A l p h a = 0 . 4 誤差1 422 40 42 2 . 0 0 42 23 43 4 1 . 8 1 . 2 0 4 1 . 2 1 . 84 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 25 41 4 1 . 7 3 0 . 7 3 4 1 . 1 5 0 . 1 56 39 4 1 . 6 6 2 . 6 6 4 1 . 0 9 2 . 0 97 46 4 1 . 3 9 4 . 6 1 4 0 . 2 5 5 . 7 58 44 4 1 . 8 5 2 . 1 5 4 2 . 5 5 1 . 4 59 45 4 2 . 0 7 2 . 9 3 4 3 . 1 3 1 . 8 710 38 4 2 . 3 6 4 . 3 6 4 3 . 8 8 5 . 8 811 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 5 3 1 . 5 312 4 1 . 7 3 4 0 . 9 2指數(shù)平滑法舉例 320 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 簡單預(yù)測(cè) 唉 , 給我點(diǎn)時(shí)間 .... 上周我們賣了 250輪胎.... 那么 , 下周我們應(yīng)該賣 .... 314 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copy
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