運籌學(xué)與供應(yīng)鏈管理-第2講-預(yù)覽頁
【正文】 McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 簡單移動平均 圖 34 MAn = n Ai i = 1 ? n 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12實際數(shù)據(jù) MA3 MA5 316 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 加權(quán)移動平均之例 月份 權(quán)重 數(shù)據(jù) 八月 17% 130 九月 33% 110 十月 50% 90 十一月的預(yù)測 3 130 50 90 0 33 110 0 17 130103 4WMA W Di ii??? ? ???( . )( ) ( . )( ) ( . )( ). 318 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程 ? b ＝ 直線斜率 Yt = a + bt 0 1 2 3 4 5 t Y b = n (ty) t y n t 2 ( t) 2 a = y b t n ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 322 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 季節(jié)性調(diào)節(jié) ?? ? DDS ii 季節(jié)因子? 需求重復(fù)性地增加／減少 ? 使用季節(jié)因子來調(diào)節(jié)預(yù)測 325 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性模型 010203040500 5 10 15 20 25X Y7 152 106 134 1514 2515 2716 2412 2014 2720 4415 347 17經(jīng)計算得出的 因果關(guān)系 328 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 線性回歸計算 y = a + bx 此處 , a = 截距 b = 直線斜率 x = 自變量 y = 給定 x 時的預(yù)測值 b = a = y b x 此處 , n = 期數(shù) x = ?x , x 的平均值 n y = ? y , y 的平均值 n ? x2 nx 2 ? xy nxy 330 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 線性回歸直線 332 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 跟蹤信號 跟蹤信號 = (實際值 預(yù)測值 ) MAD ? 跟蹤信號 = (實際值 預(yù)測值 ) 實際值 預(yù)測值 ? ? n
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