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【正文】 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 線性回歸直線 332 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性模型 010203040500 5 10 15 20 25X Y7 152 106 134 1514 2515 2716 2412 2014 2720 4415 347 17經(jīng)計算得出的 因果關(guān)系 328 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程 ? b ＝ 直線斜率 Yt = a + bt 0 1 2 3 4 5 t Y b = n (ty) t y n t 2 ( t) 2 a = y b t n ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 322 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 簡單移動平均 圖 34 MAn = n Ai i = 1 ? n 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù) MA3 MA5 316 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 主觀預(yù)測 ? 經(jīng)理人員的意見 ? 與顧客直接接觸人員的意見 ? 消費(fèi)者調(diào)查 ? 其它預(yù)測方法 –德爾非法 Delphi method 39 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 第２講 需求預(yù)測 32 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 好的預(yù)測方法的基本要素 適時 精度 可靠 書面 36 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting ? 平穩(wěn)時間序列數(shù)據(jù) – F(t) = A(t1) ? 季節(jié)變動 – F(t) = A(tn) ? 長期趨勢數(shù)據(jù) – F(t) = A(t1) + (A(t1) – A(t2)) 簡單預(yù)測法應(yīng)用 313 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 指數(shù)平滑法 ?假設(shè) —最近的觀測具有最高的預(yù)測價值 . – 因此在預(yù)測時，應(yīng)該給更近的數(shù)據(jù)賦予更高的權(quán)重 . Ft
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