【正文】 C Vanke A Vanke B Zhongnan WorldUnion (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (HK$) (RMB) (RMB) 6 0 0 13 1 2 9 6 6 1 0 8 11 0 35 5 12 7 5 5 0 19 6 38 9 56 4 30 14 17 17 1 22 4 1 2 3 1 2 0 8 8 2 1 4 7 6 5 3 9 10 7 7 2 4 7 11 7 16 5 18 19 2 2 6 1 Onshore average Total average 1 0 6 5 18 11 0 (2) (1) (5) (5) (11) Note: (1) We use nonGAAP EPS for EHouse。 (2) We use DPU for Perennial.(3) We have excluded EHouse and WorldUnion in the average numbers calculation. Source: Bloomberg, Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. 高華證券投資研究 8 2022 年 12 月 4 日 中國：房地產(chǎn) Updating NAV, target prices and our bull/bear case valuations We introduce our end2022E NAV (Exhibit 6), which are on average 8% higher than our 2022E NAV estimates, mainly as a result of our change in our property price assumptions updating of panies’ land bank/development pipelines. We roll over our target price base year to 2022E and also adjust our target NAV discounts to NAV for our off/onshore coverage universe by 015 percentage points. (See later sections) Exhibit 6: Summary of 12month target prices, 2022E NAV and rating changes Rating chg NAV chg TP chg Potential upside/downside Ticker LCY New Old New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) Share price as of Nov 30 Upside/ downside Offshore coverage Greentown Longfor Poly Property (H) Sunac KWG CRL Country Garden Evergrande COGO Sino Ocean Franshion Shimao SOHO Ehouse Agile COLI Ramp。F Shui On Land Yanlord Perennial EJ (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (US$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (S$) (S$) Buy* Buy* Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Sell Sell Buy* Buy* Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Sell Sell . . 16 9 2 5 12 11 11 8 12 8 11 12 8 . 15 13 10 10 12 0 35 25 23 26 31 25 12 8 11 30 13 30 8 21 14 27 28 10 12 0 43% 42% 40% 39% 29% 28% 24% 24% 20% 16% 15% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 0% 2% 9% Offshore average 10 17 19% Onshore coverage Vanke A BCD Zhongnan CMP Gemdale OCT Vanke B Poly A WorldUnion Risesun SMC (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (HK$) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) Buy* Buy* Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Sell Buy Buy* Buy Neutral Buy Sell Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral . . 9 7 7 7 6 24 9 15 . 6 5 9 16 7 25 13 49 9 9 14 14 21 53% 50% 40% 34% 27% 22% 19% 19% 18% 14% 2% Onshore average 5 4 27% Note: (1) *Denotes that this stock is on our Regional Conviction List. (2) Ratings that have changed are in bold typeface. Source: DataStream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. . 高華證券投資研究 40 30 8 10 4 9 2022 年 12 月 4 日 Exhibit 7: Offshore developers’ existing NAV discount 中國：房地產(chǎn) Exhibit 8: Onshore developers’ existing NAV discount (%) 120% NAV prem/disc (left scale) Adjusted sector market cap index (right scale) Base point 2022/12/9=100 1,100 (%) 200% NAV prem/disc (left scale) Adjusted sector market cap index (right scale) Base point 2022/2/17=100 1,600 1,000 1,400 100% 80% 60% 40% 900 800 700 600 500 400 150% 100% 1,200 1,000 800 600 300 20% 0% 200 100 0 50% 400 200 20% 40% 60% 80% The offshore sector market cap weighted average discount to NAV is % 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0% 50% 100% The onshore sector marketcap weighted average discount to NAV is % 0 200 400 600 800 Source: DataStream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Exhibit 9: Offshore coverage 12mth forward P/E at Off shore 12mth Forward P/E(x) 70 60 Source: DataStream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Exhibit 10: Onshore coverage 12mth forward P/E at On shore 12mth Forward P/E(x) 28 24 50 20 +2STD, +1STD Average, Current, 20 16 12 +2STD, ?+1STD, Average, 1STD, Current, 1STD, 0 Source: DataStream, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Exhibit 11: Off