【正文】 age (0) 5 7 (0) 5 7 Onshore listed BCD CMP Gemdale OCT Poly A Risesun SMC Vanke A Vanke B Zhongnan (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) 1,877 2,013 2,377 2,803 2,592 3,237 4,294 5,479 3,017 3,272 3,611 4,221 3,177 3,646 4,330 4,874 6,531 8,405 10,374 12,774 1,532 2,050 2,493 2,909 1,184 1,313 1,426 1,588 9,625 13,192 15,791 18,040 9,625 13,192 15,791 18,040 932 1,227 1,650 2,189 2,137 3,228 3,260 3,214 8,465 2,018 1,206 13,994 13,994 1,242 2,584 3,883 3,614 3,195 10,895 2,208 1,338 15,031 15,031 1,652 2,983 3,966 3,869 3,129 12,316 2,224 1,395 15,369 15,369 2,176 6 0 0 13 1 2 9 6 6 1 8 11 0 36 5 13 7 5 5 0 6 38 9 56 4 31 14 17 17 1 1,877 2,592 3,017 3,177 6,531 1,532 1,053 9,625 9,625 932 2,013 3,237 3,272 3,646 8,405 2,050 1,313 13,192 13,192 1,227 2,377 4,294 3,611 4,330 10,374 2,493 1,426 15,791 15,791 1,650 2,803 5,479 4,221 4,874 12,774 2,909 1,588 18,040 18,040 2,189 2,137 3,228 3,260 3,214 8,465 2,018 1,206 13,994 13,994 1,242 2,584 3,883 3,614 3,195 10,895 2,208 1,338 15,031 15,031 1,652 2,983 3,966 3,869 3,129 12,316 2,224 1,395 15,369 15,369 2,176 6 0 0 13 1 2 9 6 6 1 8 11 0 36 5 13 7 5 5 0 6 38 9 56 4 31 14 17 17 1 WorldUnion (RMB) 157 186 247 308 186 305 395 0 19 22 207 186 247 308 186 305 395 0 19 22 Onshore average Total average 1 0 6 5 18 11 0 0 4 5 14 11 Note: (1) We use nonGAAP profit for EHouse。 down to Neutral WorldUnion (): Fewer benefits from ASP rise。 有關(guān)分析師的申明和其他重要 信息，見信息披露附錄，或請與您的投資代表聯(lián)系。首開股份仍位于強力買入名單，且我們維持對萬科 B 和中南建設的買入評級。 對大部分未實施限 購令的城市，我們預計 2022 年上半年房價 /交易量都會基本穩(wěn)定在今年下半年的 水平，但 2022 年下半年將逐步上升。目前我們假設 2022 年房價將同比上漲 5% 10%，其中已計入房價上漲過快而導致新調(diào)控措施出臺的可能。我們對海外上市開發(fā)商的評級不變，唯一例外是將合 景泰富評級從中性上調(diào)為買入。 投資研究 3 5 5 10 13 17 18 23 25 27 29 31 34 37 40 43 45 2 2022 年 12 月 4 日 Table of contents Overview and summary of rating and target price changes Updating our price/volume assumptions for 2022 Raising estimates, but still below Consensus Balance sheet improvement on track Accelerating land price recovery to drive buyer price expectations Narrowing target price NAV discounts among offshore coverage Restacking onshore coverage preferences。 to Neutral KWG (): Thriving on tier1/2 cities’ ASP recovery。 (2) We use distributable ine for Perennial. (3) We have excluded EHouse and WorldUnion in the average numbers calculation. Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. We factored in the revaluation gain the panies booked in 1H2022 in our 2022E total profit forecast, hence the difference between underlying profit and profit forecasts in 2022E for some panies. For all but the panies listed below, revisions are driven by the general impact of our 2022 price/volume adjustments: BCD: We revise down BCD’s 2022E2022E underlying profit forecast by 6%/8%/6% on 1%/1%/0% downward adjustment of underlying margins to 16%/15%/15, mainly due to adjustments in the pletion schedule of its Beijing JV project and higher financing cost from trust loan financing from 1H12 (we have raised our financing cost forecast by ). OCT: We revise up OCT’s 2022E2022E underlying profit forecast by 13%/36%/56% on 38 pp upward adjustment of underlying margins to 17%/17%/18%, mainly to factor in: (1) its ytd achieved presales ASP was % higher than our previous estimate for 2022E and (2) our new 2022E2022E price assumptions for the sector. Shanghai Shimao: We revise up SMC’s 2022E underlying profit forecast by 9% to reflect the Rmb113mn nonoperating gain in 3Q2022. As a result of our general 20222022 price/volume adjustment across the sector, our 2022E/2022E underlying profit was up 高華證券投資研究 ? ? ? 7 2022 年 12 月 4 日 中國：房地產(chǎn) 7%/14% respectively, but our earnings estimates for SMC is still 10%/19% lower than Wind consensus for 2022E/2022E. Vanke A/B: Our underlying profit cuts for Vanke A/B in 2022E mainly reflect the shift in earnings booking from 2022 to 2022 and 2022, given the risk from the concentration of pletions planned for 4Q12. Our earnings estimates for Vanke A/B are still 8%/7%/2% higher than Wind consensus for 2022E/2022E/2022E, respectively. World Union: We cut our margins forecasts for WorldUnion by 23 pp mainly due to slowerthanexpected gross margin recovery, which resulted in 19%/22% downward adjustments to 2022E2022E ine forecasts. We estimate that the pany shall have , which implies 45%/46% lockin ratio of 2022E/2022E revenue vs. average 37% during 20222022. EJ: We cut EJ’s 2022E2022E EPS (nonGAAP) to $$$ from $$$ respectively, after factoring in: 1) Slowerthanexpected online service revenue growth, especially dragged by online advertising business. We forecast 25%/17%/17% online revenue growth from 2022E2022E。F KWG Longfor Poly Property (H) Shimao Shui On Land SinoOcean SOHO Sunac Yanlord Perennial EHouse (RMB) (HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (RMB) (RMB) (HK$) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (HK$) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (RMB) (S $) (US$) 0 0 0 4