【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 he best Asian concoctions with Western technology. For instance, we have orange blossom and green tea lipsticks.”This blend of East and West may not captivate all consumers, but a lot of smart people are betting it will be enough to help launch Chinese brands into global markets.Chapter 2The New EconomyHow Real Is It?Does the New Economy exist? Not long ago, with growth strong and markets booming, the answer seemed an obvious yes. But then came the bust. In the first half of this year, output grew at an annual rate of just 1% and there’s still a chance of an outright recession. Many pundits have left the New Economy for dead. Now they’re talking about the “Bubble Economy”.Not so fast. We think that there really is a New Economy, properly defined, and that it’s here to stay. In our view, the wild excesses of the late 1990s and the stock market plunge of 2000 – 2001 bined to obscure a fundamental change in the structure of the . economy. The New Economy was never about the end of the business cycle. Recessions can still occur. Nor was it about price – earnings multiples rising to the ionosphere. It was – and is – about an economy capable of growing more rapidly without inflation than it did during the long slump of 1973 to 1995, because of technology – driven increases in productivity, the world’s best financial system, and the unleashing of entrepreneurial energies through deregulation.Looking ahead, we’re cautious about the immediate future. But we remain optimistic about the two – to – three – year outlook. Since the middle of the 1990s, labor productivity – the output per hour of work – has grown at a rate of % annually, even after the latest downward revisions. These gains are likely to continue, though probably a lightly slower pace. At the same time, immigration is helping to expand the labor force. Put those together, and the . can most likely sustain annual gross – domestic – product growth of around %. That’s a healthy contrast with the period of 1973 to 1995, when GDP growth averaged %. Moreover, it’s safely below the overheated 4% plus growth of the late 1990s – and right in line with the average for the 20th century as a whole, when America experienced the greatest increase of wealth in the world history. Other nations seem to agree. They’re betting on the long – term strength of the . economy by investing in American assets ranging from Treasury bills to new auto plants.In contrast, the short term isn’t so pretty. Those who thought the New Economy meant good times forever have been mugged by reality. Along with being faster –growing, the New Economy is more exposed to the forces of volatility. The tech investment cycle has extreme ups and downs. Innovations, once funded by fairly stable corporate research – and – development budgets and government grants, is whipsawed by fluctuations in financing from venture capitalists and initial public offerings. And deregulation exposes once – insulated businesses like phone and electric panies to the unpredictable forces of petition. Even globalization may add to volatility, if it means tech investment goes cold all over the world instead of in different countries at different times, as before.Overall, the good news outweighs the bad. So far, it looks likely that the . economy will manage to skirt a recession this year, if just barely. The outright bust has been confined to a few sectors, such as Internet panies and tele – equipment makers. Even though the slump in capital spending substracted almost 2 percentage points from economic growth in the second quarter of 2001, the overall economy still managed to grew a bit. A rapid series of interest – rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has buoyed consumer spending and housing, and there is likely to be at lest one more. Lower rates have offset the hit to consumers from the tech – induced decline in their stock market wealth. In short, the new sources of volatility haven’t been severe enough to drag the entire economy into recession.The timing of a full rebound boils down to when businesses resume serious investing in new plants and equipment. Right now, they’re reluctant to buy new gear because they have plenty on hand from the last capital – spending binge. Industry is using just 77% of its capacity, the lowest rate since 1983. Companies are filling orders out of inventory instead of new production. David A. Wyss, chief economist at Standard amp。 Poor’s, which like Business Week is a unit of The McGraw – Hill Companies, says this business cycle is similar to those of the 1950s: Capital spending was the first ponent of GDP to slump and will be the last to recover.Wave of InnovationThe best bet: Capital spending will finally e back strong sometime next year. With inventories running low, panies will need new equipment and software. Plus, some of the gear they already have will be outmoded. In the cutthroat business world, panies can’t afford to keep using out – of – date equipment even if it still has years of serviceable life. Equipment that lowers costs will be in demand. With capital spending back to track, the economy should reach full strength a year from now, if not sooner. The latest survey of 50 economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators pegs GDP growth at % this year and 3% next year, with the annualize growth rate reaching % by the second half of 2002.The next expansion may well look different from the last one, with a new plement of panies leading the charge. Pharmaceutical and biotech panies are likely to expand rapidly, riding the wave of innovation that results from the unraveling of the human genome. As for info tech, expect a mixed bag. It’s hard to see who’s going to sizzle by making slightly faster routers or stringing yet more optical fibers across prairies and oceans. What consumers and businesses want now are systems that produce immediate, concrete benefits. Computing on demand, for instance, is supposed to make puting as easy as turning on