【文章內(nèi)容簡介】
’ 34%, roughly the reverse of their shares eight years ago. “以前有一種觀點,即美國是世界消費者而新興市場是制造商,”摩根大通首席經(jīng)濟學家Bruce Kasman如是說?!暗@種情形已經(jīng)改變了?!彼J為美國今年僅會在全球消費中占到27%的比重,而新興市場會占34%,這與八年前的情形剛好相反。 Start with history. The modern conception of a united Europe was born in the embers of World War 2 and rested upon the notion that binding Germany’s fortunes to those of France and the rest of Europe could end the violence that had regularly engulfed the continent for centuries. Judged by that measure the EU has worked out fine.以歷史為開端。現(xiàn)代意義上的一個統(tǒng)一的歐洲出生于二戰(zhàn)的余燼之中,基于將德國的命運與法國和歐洲其他國家聯(lián)合在一起的概念可以結(jié)束定期吞沒了大陸幾個世紀的暴力。依據(jù)這個措施歐盟已經(jīng)解決的很好了。 1While Japan suffers from many problems, most prominently the rapid graying of its society, it is this decline of a once wealthy and dynamic nation into a deep social and cultural rut that is perhaps Japan’s most ominous lesson for the world today.而日本存在許多問題,最突出的快速老齡化的社會,正是這種下降使一個曾經(jīng)富有的和動態(tài)的國家社會和文化陷入了深深的車轍,這也許是日本對于如今的世界最不祥的教訓。1Japan has already created an entire generation of young people who say they have given up on believing that they can ever enjoy the job stability or rising living standards that were once considered a birthright here。日本已經(jīng)創(chuàng)造了整整一代聲稱已經(jīng)放棄相信他們能享受工作穩(wěn)定或不斷上升的生活水平的年輕人,而這些享受曾被認為是一種與生俱來的權(quán)利。1It helps to start with a cleareyed view of SmootHawley itself, which was just one of many mistakes mitted by Depressionera policymakers—and not the most consequential of them. If we want to avoid the sort of destructive, beggarthyneighbor trade wars that contributed to bringing down the world economy in the 1930s, we have to draw the right lessons from this chapter of our history.它有助于以斯穆特霍利稅法本身有遠見的觀點為開始,這不是大蕭條時期政策制定者犯下的許多錯誤中最重要的一個。如果我們想避免那種具有破壞性的,以鄰為壑的在1930年代導致世界經(jīng)濟下降的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭, 我們必