【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 centives to increase their risk positions in newly petitive environments and allow them to avoid full responsibility for mistakes in monitoring and evaluating risk. Further, deficiencies in accounting, disclosure, and legal frameworks contribute to the problem because they allow financial institutions (or financial regulators) to disguise the extent of their stresses. Governments frequently have failed to identify problem institutions quickly or to take prompt corrective action when a problem arises, resulting in larger and more difficult crisis situations. 在出現(xiàn)問題時或在嚴重的銀行危機產(chǎn)生的情況下，政府經(jīng)常未能很快找出問題或機構未能迅速采取糾正措施。Hutchison and McDill (1999) consider a number of early warning indicators of the onset of banking sector distress. 哈奇森和麥克迪爾（1999）考慮了銀行業(yè)危機爆發(fā)的一些早期預警指標。Since focusing only on episodes of banking distress would introduce an inherent bias, a broad sample of developing, emergingmarket, and industrial economies were considered.因為偏重于對銀行危機事件的介紹，廣泛的樣本將新興市場和工業(yè)經(jīng)濟的因素也考慮在內(nèi)。 Important information may be gleaned from an environment that may have appeared ripe for the onset of banking sector distress but avoided it. In this way, a control group of countries that did not experience banking distress helps isolate those indicators that actually may predict banking problems 重要的信息可能是來源于一種環(huán)境，從銀行業(yè)危機的開始出現(xiàn)到成熟，但是危機可以避免的。這樣，一個沒有經(jīng)歷過銀行危機的國家和經(jīng)歷過銀行危機的國家形成實驗對照組，實際上可以預測銀行業(yè)問題The study identifies two groups of indicators likely to be candidates signaling the onset of banking crises: macroeconomic and institutional. The choice of variables for each group is limited, of course, by the availability of data across a large number of countries and over a sustained period. 該研究確定了兩個可能預示著銀行群體發(fā)生危機的候選指標：宏觀經(jīng)濟和制度。在一個持續(xù)的時期內(nèi)收集大量國家的實用性數(shù)據(jù)，當然，每個組變量的選擇是有限的But enough data are available to draw out some of the main statistical features mon to most episodes of banking sector distress.但是足夠的數(shù)據(jù)可以用來繪制銀行業(yè)危機的主要統(tǒng)計特征。 Specifically, starting with a sample of over 130 countries over the 197597 period, with over 90 banking crises identified, the study examined 97 countries, of which 53 had severe banking problems at some point.具體來說，在1975至1997年期間首先有130多個國家出現(xiàn)銀行危機，用 90多個樣本來確定的銀行危機，研究的97個國家中53個已在某種程度出現(xiàn)了嚴重的銀行危機Since several countries had multiple occurrences over the sample period, 65 episodes of banking distress are identified for detailed statistical analysis (using the probit model regression procedure on a panel data set). 由于幾個國家已多次出現(xiàn)在樣本期內(nèi)，65個危機銀行被確定為詳細的統(tǒng)計分析（使用面板數(shù)據(jù)集的概率模型回歸過程）。On the macroeconomic side, a large number of variables were investigated to see if they either provided an early warning signal or were contemporaneously associated with the onset of banking problems. 在宏觀經(jīng)濟方面，將大量的變量進行了調(diào)查，檢驗他們是否提供一個早期預警信號或進行或預測銀行危機的誕生。These variables include real output growth, exchange rate changes, real credit growth, real interest rates, inflation, changes in asset prices, and the ratio of international reserves to the money stock. Each factor has been offered, in different contexts, as an indicator of the likelihood of banking distress. 這些變量包括實際產(chǎn)出增長，匯率變動，真正的信貸增長，實際利率，通貨膨脹，資產(chǎn)價格的變化，以及國際儲備貨幣存量的比率。在不同環(huán)境下提供每一個因素，作為銀行危機的可能性的指標。Hutchison and McDill, however, find that only two of the macro variables are systematically correlated with the onset of banking sector distress: declines in real output and declines in asset values (reflected by equity values). This is not surprising