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2024-09-02 17:05本頁(yè)面
【正文】 stimate their stability.這有什么關(guān)系嗎？這只是一種并不會(huì)有什么后果的錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)測(cè)嗎？不，這有很大的關(guān)系，我會(huì)舉例告訴你們?yōu)槭裁??！盌oes any of this matter? Is this just a form of misprediction that doesn39。人們可以說出這些事情。你們可以問問人們關(guān)于他們喜好和厭惡的事，他們基本的偏好。ll enjoy in 10 years, and yet, people who are 10 years older all say, Eh, you know, that39。ve seen it twice now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they39。s your favorite hobby, what39。And it isn39。回到原來的話題，我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中自己會(huì)有多大的變化，以及他們?cè)谶^去的10年中發(fā)生了多少變化，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了，你們會(huì)習(xí)慣不斷地看到這個(gè)圖表，因?yàn)橛忠淮?，變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長(zhǎng)減慢了。比如說，人格。re going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over, because once again the rate of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade.現(xiàn)在不僅僅是價(jià)值觀了。s not just values. It39。為了讓你們了解這種影響有多大， 你們可以把這兩條線連接起來，你們現(xiàn)在看到的是18歲的人群預(yù)期的改變僅僅和50歲的人群實(shí)際經(jīng)歷的一樣。在我們的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)從18歲到68歲的每一個(gè)年齡段中，人們大大的低估了在未來的10年他們會(huì)經(jīng)歷多少變化。首先，你們是對(duì)的，隨著我們年齡的增長(zhǎng)，變化會(huì)減緩。re wrong, because it doesn39。Here39。我們讓他們當(dāng)中一半的人預(yù)測(cè)了一下在未來10年中，他們的價(jià)值觀會(huì)發(fā)生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們?cè)谶^去的10年中，他們的價(jià)值觀發(fā)生了多大的變化。每個(gè)人的生活都與這三個(gè)價(jià)值觀相關(guān)，但是你們可能知道，隨著你們慢慢長(zhǎng)大，變老，這三個(gè)價(jià)值觀的平衡點(diǎn)會(huì)不斷變化。這是一項(xiàng)關(guān)于人們的個(gè)人價(jià)值觀隨時(shí)間變化的研究。s personal values over time. Here39。Let me give you some data to back up that claim. So here39。那么生命中這個(gè)讓變化突然間從飛速變得緩慢的神奇轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)應(yīng)該叫什么呢？是青少年時(shí)期嗎？是中年時(shí)期嗎？是老年階段嗎？其實(shí)對(duì)大多數(shù)人來說，答案是，現(xiàn)在，無(wú)論現(xiàn)在發(fā)生在什么。ll try to convince you today — is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time. Every one of you knows that the rate of change slows over the human lifespan, that your children seem to change by the minute but your parents seem to change by the year. But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl? Is
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