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it isn39。ve seen it twice now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they39。你們可以問問人們關于他們喜好和厭惡的事,他們基本的偏好?!盌oes any of this matter? Is this just a form of misprediction that doesn39。現在想想你們此時此刻最喜歡的音樂人,還有10年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。那么,在一個完全理性的世界里,這兩個數字應該是相同的,但是我們?yōu)槌两诋斍跋埠弥械臋C會付了更多的錢,因為我們高估了它們的持久性。s hard to imagine, it39。re describing.為什么會發(fā)生這樣的變化呢?我們也不是很確定,不過這可能與記憶的消逝和想象的難度相關。s as if, for most of us, the present is a magic time. It39。ve ever been. The one constant in our life is change.總而言之,時間是一種強大的力量。我們似乎會感激這個事實,但是只在回想過去的時候。它是一個使我們最終成為我們自己的時刻。Thank you.?,F在的你只是處于過渡中,轉瞬即逝,暫時的的狀態(tài)而已,就像所有那些過去的你。好像,對我們大多數人來說,當前是個有魔力的時刻。它重塑了我們的價值觀。s the moment at which we finally bee ourselves. Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they39。很遺憾,當人們說“我可想象不出來”,他們通常是在表達他們缺乏想象力,而不是他們所描述的不可能發(fā)生的事情。t imagine that, they39。re not entirely sure, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining. Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we39?,F在我們讓人們預測一下,告訴我們他們現在愿意付多少錢來參加他們現在最喜歡的音樂人從現在起10年后的音樂會,平均來講,人們會說他們會付129美元買票。ll give you an example of why. It bedevils our decisionmaking in important ways. Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musician 10 years ago. I put mine up on the screen to help you along. Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticket. And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who w