ted演講中英對照(1)(更新版)
【正文】 什么后果的錯誤的預(yù)測嗎？不，這有很大的關(guān)系，我會舉例告訴你們?yōu)槭裁?。ll enjoy in 10 years, and yet, people who are 10 years older all say, Eh, you know, that39。回到原來的話題，我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中自己會有多大的變化，以及他們在過去的10年中發(fā)生了多少變化，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了，你們會習慣不斷地看到這個圖表，因為又一次，變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長減慢了。為了讓你們了解這種影響有多大， 你們可以把這兩條線連接起來，你們現(xiàn)在看到的是18歲的人群預(yù)期的改變僅僅和50歲的人群實際經(jīng)歷的一樣。Here39。s personal values over time. Here39。如此沒完沒了。re going to bee, and then when we bee those people, we39。你們每個人都知道變化的速度隨著人的年齡增長不斷放慢，孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化，而父母們的變化則要慢得多。這里有3種價值觀。t slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years. We call this the end of history illusion. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18yearolds anticipate changing only as much as 50yearolds actually do.這是我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)。s all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Again, we asked people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years, and what we found, well, you39。t just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation, what39。比如說，說出你最好朋友的名字，你最喜歡什么樣的假期，你最大的愛好是什么，你最喜歡什么樣的音樂。我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作為提示。s not likely to happen. Sorry, when people say I can39。s a watershed on the timeline. It39。只有在我們回首過去的時候我們才會認識到在過去的十年里發(fā)生了多么大的
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