ted演講中英對照(1)(完整版)
【正文】 back up that claim. So here39。我們讓他們當(dāng)中一半的人預(yù)測了一下在未來10年中，他們的價值觀會發(fā)生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們在過去的10年中，他們的價值觀發(fā)生了多大的變化。在我們的數(shù)據(jù)庫從18歲到68歲的每一個年齡段中，人們大大的低估了在未來的10年他們會經(jīng)歷多少變化。比如說，人格。ve seen it twice now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they39?！盌oes any of this matter? Is this just a form of misprediction that doesn39。那么，在一個完全理性的世界里，這兩個數(shù)字應(yīng)該是相同的，但是我們?yōu)槌两诋?dāng)前喜好中的機會付了更多的錢，因為我們高估了它們的持久性。re describing.為什么會發(fā)生這樣的變化呢？我們也不是很確定，不過這可能與記憶的消逝和想象的難度相關(guān)。ve ever been. The one constant in our life is change.總而言之，時間是一種強大的力量。它是一個使我們最終成為我們自己的時刻?，F(xiàn)在的你只是處于過渡中，轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝，暫時的的狀態(tài)而已，就像所有那些過去的你。它重塑了我們的價值觀。很遺憾，當(dāng)人們說“我可想象不出來”，他們通常是在表達他們?nèi)狈ο胂罅Γ皇撬麄兯枋龅牟豢赡馨l(fā)生的事情。re not entirely sure, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining. Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we39。ll give you an example of why. It bedevils our decisionmaking in important ways. Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musician 10 years ago. I put mine up on the screen to help you along. Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticket. And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite 10 years ago perform today, they say only 80 dollars. Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.這有什么關(guān)系嗎？這只是一種并不會有
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