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2024-08-19 17:05 本頁面
【正文】 長不斷放慢，孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化，而父母們的變化則要慢得多。那么生命中這個讓變化突然間從飛速變得緩慢的神奇轉(zhuǎn)折點應(yīng)該叫什么呢？是青少年時期嗎？是中年時期嗎？是老年階段嗎？其實對大多數(shù)人來說，答案是，現(xiàn)在，無論現(xiàn)在發(fā)生在什么。今天我想讓大家明白的是，我們所有人都在圍繞著一種錯覺生活，這種錯覺就是，我們每個人的過去，都已經(jīng)結(jié)束了，我們已經(jīng)成為了我們應(yīng)該成為的那種人，在余下的生命中也都會如此。Let me give you some data to back up that claim. So here39。s a study of change in people39。s personal values over time. Here39。s three values. Everybody here holds all of them, but you probably know that as you grow, as you age, the balance of these values shifts. So how does it do so? Well, we asked thousands of people. We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years, and the others to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years. And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis, because it allowed us to pare the predictions of people, say, 18 years old, to the reports of people who were 28, and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.我想給你們展示一些數(shù)據(jù)來支持這個觀點。這是一項關(guān)于人們的個人價值觀隨時間變化的研究。這里有3種價值觀。每個人的生活都與這三個價值觀相關(guān)，但是你們可能知道，隨著你們慢慢長大，變老，這三個價值觀的平衡點會不斷變化。到底是怎么回事呢？我們詢問了數(shù)千人。我們讓他們當(dāng)中一半的人預(yù)測了一下在未來10年中，他們的價值觀會發(fā)生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們在過去的10年中，他們的價值觀發(fā)生了多大的變化。這項調(diào)查可以讓我們做一個很有趣的分析，因為它可以讓我們將大約18歲左右的人的預(yù)測同大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，這項分析可以貫穿人的一生。Here39。s what we found. First of all, you are right, change does slow down as we age, but second, you39。re wrong, because it doesn39。t slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years. We call this the end of history illusion. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18yearolds ant
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