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【正文】 化則要慢得多。s a study of change in people39。這里有3種價(jià)值觀。這項(xiàng)調(diào)查可以讓我們做一個(gè)很有趣的分析，因?yàn)樗梢宰屛覀儗⒋蠹s18歲左右的人的預(yù)測(cè)同大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，這項(xiàng)分析可以貫穿人的一生。t slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years. We call this the end of history illusion. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18yearolds anticipate changing only as much as 50yearolds actually do.這是我們的發(fā)現(xiàn)。我們把這叫做“歷史終止”錯(cuò)覺(jué)。s all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Again, we asked people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years, and what we found, well, you39。你們當(dāng)中的很多人知道現(xiàn)在心理學(xué)家們認(rèn)為人格可以分為五個(gè)基本維度：神經(jīng)質(zhì)性，經(jīng)驗(yàn)汲取度，協(xié)調(diào)性，外向性和道德感。t just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation, what39。ll have in 10 years, the vacation they most enjoy now is the one they39。比如說(shuō)，說(shuō)出你最好朋友的名字，你最喜歡什么樣的假期，你最大的愛(ài)好是什么，你最喜歡什么樣的音樂(lè)。t have consequences? No, it matters quite a bit, and I39。我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作為提示。Why does this happen? We39。s not likely to happen. Sorry, when people say I can39。我們中的大多數(shù)人都能記得10年前的我們是什么樣子，但是要想像我們會(huì)成為什么樣的人就困難了，然后我們會(huì)錯(cuò)誤地認(rèn)為因?yàn)楹茈y想象，就不太可能會(huì)發(fā)生。s a watershed on the timeline. It39。它改變了我們的喜好。只有在我們回首過(guò)去的時(shí)候我們才會(huì)認(rèn)識(shí)到在過(guò)去的十年里發(fā)生了多么大的變化。人類還處在發(fā)展變化的過(guò)程中，卻錯(cuò)誤地以為他們不會(huì)發(fā)生任何改
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