【正文】 looking. Being average doesn39。大多數(shù)男性對自己外表的評價在七年級時就形成了，而且終生不變。3 The problem is that men do not think of their looks in the same way women do. Most men form an opinion of themselves in seventh grade and stick to it for the rest of their lives. Some men think they39。相信我，這是最簡單的方法。2 You must be careful how you answer this question. The best technique is to form an honest yet sensitive response, then promptly excuse yourself for some kind of emergency. Trust me, this is the easiest way out. No amount of rehearsal will help you e up with the right answer.對于如何應對這個問題，你一定得小心。unit 2 TextAThe confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的對美的追求1 If you39。而最明智的辦法則是，要充分認識沉沒成本謬誤導致的結(jié)果，離開糟糕的境況，不論之前已投入了多少。12 The truth is that every pull of the lever has the same winning probability of nearly one in a trillion, regardless of how much money has been put in before — the previous plays were sunk costs.而事實是，不論他們之前投入了多少錢，每一次拉動拉桿的成功幾率都同樣是極小的——之前投入的那些即為沉沒成本。賭徒們冒著高風險，把錢投入老虎機，期望能夠得到很大的回報，但隨著一次次拉動拉桿，他們也一次次把錢賭輸了。11 The sunk cost fallacy has a periodic application and was first identified by economists. A good example of how it works is the casino slot machine. Gamblers with a high threshold for risk put money into a slot machine hoping for a big return, but with each pull of the lever they lose some money playing the odds. If they have been pulling the lever many times in a row without success, they might decide that they had better keep spending money at the machine, or they will have wasted everything they already put in.“沉沒成本謬誤”也時有發(fā)生，它最初是由經(jīng)濟學家發(fā)現(xiàn)的。如果災難的發(fā)生率很低，比如飛機著陸過程中墜毀的可能性只有十萬分之一，那么飛往加那利群島就仍是安全的。同樣，人們也可能因懼怕遭到人身侵犯或者強暴而不敢再在晚上出門。由于記憶的留存和重拾會因為事件的生動與否、震撼程度和情感觸動程度的不同而產(chǎn)生偏差，那么，基于這些記憶所作出的決定也往往會是奇怪或不準確的結(jié)論。當法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時，對他們證詞的信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的。更糟糕的是，即使人們意識到自己有過度自信的偏差，他們還是會高估自己的正確率。但在現(xiàn)實中，人們的信心卻大大超過了其判斷的準確度。s confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments. This bias most frequently es into play in areas where someone has no direct evidence and must make a guess — estimating how many people are in a crowded plaza, for example, or how likely it will rain. To make matters worse, even when people are aware of overconfidence bias, they will still tend to overstate the chances that they are correct. Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence. When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.與“確定性偏差”相類似的是“過度自信偏差”。所以，要克服“確定性偏差”，就要以同樣的努力認真探究論點的正反兩面。這種偏差在兩種敵對觀點的對抗中會起到尤其重要的作用。這種偏差包含兩部分：第一，我們往往只收集且只依賴對我們的已有觀點起支持作用的信息；第二，我們回避或否認那些與自己之前所持的假設(shè)相左的信息。舉一個例子，你可能會毫無根據(jù)地假定自己的房子會升值，哪怕周圍百分之九十的房子都已經(jīng)貶值了，因為你總認為自己的能力更強。4 In other words, we typically demand more accountability from others than we do from ourselves. Not only does this lead to petty judgments about other people, it also leads to faulty risk assessment when you assume that certain bad things only happen to others. For example, you might assume, without evidence, that the price of your house will go up even though 90 percent of them have dropped in price, because you yourself are more petent.換句話說，我們通常要求別人承擔更多的責任，而不是自己。“詹金斯丟掉了工作是因為他能力太差，我丟掉了工作則是因為經(jīng)濟衰退。 success as the product of mere luck.最常見的偏差之一就是通常所說的“基本歸因錯誤”。3 One of the most mon biases is what is known as the fundamental attribution error. Through this people attribute the failures of others to character flaws and their own to mere circumstance, subconsciously considering their own characters to be stainless. Jenkins lost his job because of his inpetence。2 Thankfully these biases can be avoided. Understanding how and in what situations they occur can give you an awareness of your own limitations and allow you to factor them into your decisionmaking.好在這些偏差是可以避免的。但是，研究人類決策過程的心理學家們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)了每個人身上都常見的“認知偏差”。這一價值體系所隱含的前提是，聰明人借助自己豐富的學識會作出更高明的決定。是我讓他同意你們的協(xié)議的，這樣他就能擁有你的夾克！”TextBWhy do smart people do dumb things?聰明人為何會做蠢事？1 Orthodox views prize intelligence and intellectual rigor highly in the modern realm of universities and tech industry jobs. One of the underlying assumptions of this value system is that smart people, by virtue of what they39。你是否能給我一個充足的理由，為什么要選擇跟他？”43 Wow, what presumption! I39。ll never know where his next meal is ing from. Can you give me one good reason why you should be with him?我極力地保持著平靜，說道：“你怎么會甩了我而選擇羅伯？看看我，一個聰明過人的學生，一個不同凡響的學者，一個前途無量的人。m more interested in a different petitioner — Rob and I are back together.“我對另一位求愛者更感興趣——羅伯和我重歸于好了。40 Why? I demanded.“為什么？”我追問道?！?7 Dicto Simpliciter, she said. Besides, you really should practice what you preach.“絕對判斷，”她說道，“而且，你自己教的東西應該自己身體力行。“不過不要對它們太死板，我是說這都是些學術(shù)的東西。t take them so literally. I mean this is all academic. You know the things you learn in school don39?！?5 Ad Misericordiam, she said.“文不對題，”她說。m nothing without you.“波莉，我愛你。34 Polly, I love you. Please say you39。再錯幾步我可就無法挽回了?！?3 I laughed with somewhat less amusement, hiding my dread that she39?！澳愕那疤崾羌s會就如同吃東西。re not a cake. You39?！坝H愛的，”我開口說，同時寬容地拍了拍她的手，“五次約會已經(jīng)夠多了，畢竟你不需要吃掉整個蛋糕才知道它是不是好吃。t have to eat a whole cake to know it39。t you think?“草率結(jié)論，”波莉伶俐地說，“或者是按一般人的說法，這個結(jié)論有些不成熟，你不這樣認為嗎？”31 I laughed with amusement. She39。”30 Hasty Generalization, said Polly brightly. Or as a normal person might say, that39?！?8 Oh? she said, a little disappointed.“哦？”她回答說，有一點失望。27 Polly, I said when next we sat under our oak, tonight we won39。26 With five nights of diligent work, I actually made a logician out of Polly. She was an analytical thinker at last. The time had e for the conversion of our relationship from academic to romantic.經(jīng)過五個夜晚的辛勤努力，我竟然真的將波莉打造成了一個邏輯行家，她總算能夠分析思考了。”25 I still think it39。醫(yī)生們不是在參加考試以檢查他們學到了多少，而學生卻是。t taking a test to see how much they have learned, but students are. The situations are altogether different. You can39。24 Polly, I groaned, don39。舉個例子：學生考試時應該允許看課本，因為外科醫(yī)生在做手術(shù)時可以看X光片?！?1 She blinked, still trying hard to keep back her tears.她眨著眼睛，仍在竭力地忍住眼淚。s