【正文】 八十地正確，以此類推。9 In action this bias might lead someone to cancel a trip to, for example, the Canary Islands because of a report that the biggest plane crash in history happened there. Likewise some people might stop going out at night for fear of assault or rape.在具體行為中，這種偏差可能會使某人取消比如前往加那利群島的行程，因為有報道說，史上最慘重的空難就發(fā)生在那里。如果他們多次連續(xù)拉動拉桿而沒有一次成功，他們可能會決定最好還是繼續(xù)把錢投入老虎機，否則他們之前投入的成本就悉數(shù)浪費了。最好的對策就是給一個誠實但又謹慎的回答，然后借口有急事馬上脫身。t bother them。他們的打扮方式主要就是刮刮胡子，就像打理自家草坪一樣。6 Why do women consider their looks so deficient? This chronic insecurity isn39。你肯定無法想象他會問別人說：“這個配飾的紫羅蘭色和這件外套配不配呢？”7 But women grow up thinking they need to look like Barbie dolls or girls on magazine covers, which for most women is impossible. Nonetheless, the multibilliondollar beauty industry, plete with its own aisle in the grocery store, is devoted to constant warfare on female selfesteem, convincing women that they must buy all the newest moisturizing creams, bronzing powders and appliances that promise to stimulate and restore their skin. I once saw an Oprah Show in which supermodel Cindy Crawford dispensed makeup tips to the studio audience. Cindy had all these middleaged women apply clay masks and other wrinkleremoving products to their faces?？墒菍θ魏我粋€理智的旁觀者來說，無論她們如何認真地使用這些產品，她們都不可能擁有辛迪那樣的面容或膚色。皮特的指導下把化妝品敷到自己臉上，期望自己能看起來更像布拉德。10 By participating in this system of extreme conformity, women are actually opening themselves up to the scrutiny of other women, the only ones qualified to judge their efforts. What is the real benefit of working this hard to appease men who don39。s. Also, she suspects that you39。t usually fulfill their promise. Besides, beautiful people are not automatically happy people.當今，過度追求相貌修整的風氣無比盛行，太多的人沉迷于肉毒桿菌注射的宣講會和真人秀，整容手術也日趨流行。s an emotional and spiritual walk, and it requires faith fueled with liberal doses of loving kindness.最大限度地實現(xiàn)你自己的美并不是指要讓自己在社交時漂亮或在生理上完美，況且這些也不是通過技術就能實現(xiàn)的。m not about to replace him with the socalled esthetic perfection.能有幸每天愛著理查德，我感到很高興。我花了37年時間才找到他，我決不會因為所謂的“審美標準上的完美”而另尋他人。由于無法獲得大屏幕上所看到的那種生活，他們感到力不從心、絕望無助，并因嫉妒而陷于沮喪。6 The only way I know to develop my soul is through feelings. Witnessing natural phenomena — the starlit galaxy, a centuriesold redwood, the symphony of birds39。我們一起勤奮努力，患難與共，盡力完善自我，和家人及朋友緊密相處，努力用我們的個人道德和志向去照亮世界。我們會經歷自己并不贊同的社會現(xiàn)象，經歷那些奪走我們所摯愛的人和財物的錯綜交織的自然及人為災難， 經歷不良的時尚和幻想。它成了一種真實的存在，使一個人的精神像圣人那樣光彩四溢。雖然我們會抱怨、發(fā)牢騷，我們終會感受到自己的成長。t agree with, through interwoven natural and unnatural disasters that take our loved ones and possessions, through fads and fancies that are often unhealthy. From each event, we learn, we stretch, we sometimes fracture, we process the emotional oute, and we move on. These life events are the soul39。愛情促使我的精神成長并煥發(fā)光彩，親情激發(fā)了我對永恒的感受，因此我學會了接受他人的真實本色。t going to make their lives, their bodies, or their mental state much better. In fact, they often hamper happiness by distracting from the things that lead to real inner beauty. Life is not about maintaining some young and stylish outward costume to hide behind. It39。re naked), that the effort of maintaining their images is an exhausting, fulltime job. The beautiful people in the media are under enormous pressure to maintain their looks, and for some reason, my clients don39。盡管我們的生活不如虛幻的電影故事中描述的愛情生活那樣，它卻很美好。3 Every day, I have the delight and privilege of loving Richard, my husband, a real, human, emotionally accessible man. We39。2 Attaining the highest degree of your beauty is not about looking good during social interaction, or physiological perfection, and you can39。她已經花費了無數(shù)個小時發(fā)愁自己的容貌不能和辛迪t say she looks bad without receiving immediate and welldeserved outrage. But you also can39。s flawless pink polish is exactly as invisible as another39。re not going to get a group of middleaged men to plaster cosmetics to themselves under the instruction of Brad Pitt in hopes of looking more like him. Men don39。我曾經看過一期《奧普拉脫口秀》，在節(jié)目中，超級名模辛迪要達到這樣的標準是很荒唐的，尤其是當我們想想那種洋娃娃的腰圍尺寸，就知道其相對尺寸對任何一個活人來說都是不可企及的。如果非要我猜測大多數(shù)女性對自己的相貌是如何評價的話，那肯定是：“還不夠好。s done all he can.我相信，大多數(shù)男性都不會對自己的相貌感到過分自傲。re irresistibly desirable, and they refuse to change this opinion even when they grow bald and their faces visibly wrinkle as they age.其原因是，男性和女性對外表的看法截然不同。14 While there are still more biases, the key to avoiding them remains the same: When a decision matters, it is best to rely on watertight logic and a careful examination of the evidence and to remain aware that what seems like good intuition is always subject to errors of judgment.盡管還有其他更多的偏差，避免這些偏差的關鍵其實都一樣：當涉及重要決策時，最好是依靠嚴密的邏輯并仔細審查證據(jù)；同時，要保持警惕，那些看上去良好的直覺總是很容易導致判斷失誤。如果人們外出只有百萬分之一的幾率遭到人身侵犯，那么夜晚出行也就仍是安全的。光靠自信是無法進行準確預測的，只有在切實證據(jù)的基礎上，自信才能發(fā)揮最大的作用。每一方都會把自己的觀點隔離出來，認為其在邏輯上無懈可擊，并聲稱他們的對手忽略了某些要點?！蓖瑯樱@種偏差也會讓我們將自己的成功歸功于自身素質而不是運氣，而將別人的成功僅僅看作是運氣使然。不管智力水平如何，這些認知偏差都會引導人們作出錯誤的決定，不論他們是專家還是門外漢。再看看羅伯，一個肌肉發(fā)達的蠢材，一個有了上頓沒下頓的家伙。你知道，學校里學的東西和實際生活根本沒有什么聯(lián)系。ll go out with me. I39。re a boy.“錯誤類比，”波莉立即回應。s a little premature, don39。s a good idea, said Polly.“我仍然認為這是一個好主意，”波莉說?！?3 I like that idea, she said.“我喜歡這個主意，”她說。s awful, I agreed, but it39。“沒有人嗎？”14 This is also a fallacy, I said. The generalization is reached too hastily. Too few instances support such a conclusion.“這也是一種邏輯謬誤，”我說，“這一結論太草率了，因為能夠支持這一結論的例證太少了?！安ɡ?，”我解釋說，“這個推斷太過簡單化了。邏輯上出現(xiàn)的問題會歪曲事實，其中有些還很普遍。我的想法有些怪異。他可不那么聰明，而他的女友波莉也不太精明。unit 1 TextALove and logic: The story of a fallacy愛情與邏輯：謬誤的故事1 I had my first date with Polly after I made the trade with my roommate Rob. That year every guy on campus had a leather jacket, and Rob couldn39。2 But she was pretty, welloff, didn39。而這個地方能夠俯瞰燈火燦爛的城區(qū)，我覺得它會使人的心情變輕松。我們先來看看一種叫做‘絕對判斷’的邏輯謬誤。如果你有心臟病或者超級肥胖癥什么的，運動就變得有害而不是有益。”15 She seemed to have a good time. I could safely say my plan was underway. I took her home and set a date for another conversation.她似乎學得很開心，而我也可以放心地說我的計劃正在穩(wěn)步推進中。s no argument. The man never answered the boss39。24 Polly, I groaned, don39。26 With five nights of diligent work, I actually made a logician out of Polly. She was an analytical thinker at last. The time