【正文】 had e for the conversion of our relationship from academic to romantic.經(jīng)過五個夜晚的辛勤努力，我竟然真的將波莉打造成了一個邏輯行家，她總算能夠分析思考了。t you think?“草率結(jié)論，”波莉伶俐地說，“或者是按一般人的說法，這個結(jié)論有些不成熟，你不這樣認(rèn)為嗎？”31 I laughed with amusement. She39?！澳愕那疤崾羌s會就如同吃東西。m nothing without you.“波莉，我愛你?！?7 Dicto Simpliciter, she said. Besides, you really should practice what you preach.“絕對判斷，”她說道，“而且，你自己教的東西應(yīng)該自己身體力行。你是否能給我一個充足的理由，為什么要選擇跟他？”43 Wow, what presumption! I39。2 Thankfully these biases can be avoided. Understanding how and in what situations they occur can give you an awareness of your own limitations and allow you to factor them into your decisionmaking.好在這些偏差是可以避免的。4 In other words, we typically demand more accountability from others than we do from ourselves. Not only does this lead to petty judgments about other people, it also leads to faulty risk assessment when you assume that certain bad things only happen to others. For example, you might assume, without evidence, that the price of your house will go up even though 90 percent of them have dropped in price, because you yourself are more petent.換句話說，我們通常要求別人承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任，而不是自己。所以，要克服“確定性偏差”，就要以同樣的努力認(rèn)真探究論點(diǎn)的正反兩面。當(dāng)法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時，對他們證詞的信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的。11 The sunk cost fallacy has a periodic application and was first identified by economists. A good example of how it works is the casino slot machine. Gamblers with a high threshold for risk put money into a slot machine hoping for a big return, but with each pull of the lever they lose some money playing the odds. If they have been pulling the lever many times in a row without success, they might decide that they had better keep spending money at the machine, or they will have wasted everything they already put in.“沉沒成本謬誤”也時有發(fā)生，它最初是由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的。unit 2 TextAThe confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的對美的追求1 If you39。大多數(shù)男性對自己外表的評價在七年級時就形成了，而且終生不變。如果他們偶爾想到自己外表的話，他們愿意認(rèn)為自己樣貌中等?！币晃慌浚瑹o論她看起來多么吸引人，她對自己的看法總是由于受美容業(yè)的影響而蒙著一層陰影。與女孩玩具的這種荒唐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相比，小男孩們得到的“動作玩偶”卻是完全不同的模樣?？藙陴ズ脱莶ナ依锏挠^眾分享了自己的化妝秘訣。t face the same societal focus purely on physical beauty, and they39。s bare nails.當(dāng)然，女性會爭辯說她們對外表的熱衷追求是出于對來自男性的壓力的一種反應(yīng)。t shower her with empty pliments about how her shoes plement her dress nicely because she39。克勞馥的一樣。t get there via technology. It39。re about the same age, and our looks have corroded a bit over time. After almost 20 years, though, we have grown together in ways that go far deeper than the surface of our skin. Our life is lovely even if it doesn39。我們一起歡笑，一起分擔(dān)日常生活的磕磕絆絆。t realize that they39。s about growing and deepening your soul.我要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，世界上所有的面霜、健身鍛煉、飲食風(fēng)尚、抗抑郁癥的百憂解膠囊，乃至許多人在一起打坐冥思等等，都不能改善一個人的生活、身體或精神狀況。7 The humans in my life are not the barren, selfabsorbed beautiful people of the screen. We39。s workout, and though we may groan and plain, we can feel the growth eventually.我們來自各種不同的背景，而且有時意見相左，但是我們盡力互相關(guān)心。9 The secret is that this growth is visible to others, and the effort registers on one39。t be bought in a jar.這其中的秘密就在于這種成長是他人可見的，而且這種努力在一個人的全身上下都能得到展現(xiàn)。我們努力抗拒新奇事物的潮流的誘惑及廣告的操縱。我們只是平凡的、實(shí)實(shí)在在的、有缺點(diǎn)的人。生活的意義不在于通過維持某種年輕時髦的外表來掩蓋自己，而在于精神的成長和升華。每天我都要接待許多客戶，他們都是因?yàn)樯畈粔颉巴昝馈倍妒芮楦型纯?。世界上任何一位肌肉發(fā)達(dá)的男模都不能取代我自己的這位性感、外向的伴侶。t replace my very own, sensual, outgoing friend. It took me 37 years to find him, and I39。s about meaning, and being real. It39。TextBMaking the choice to be truly beautiful選擇擁有真正的美麗1 Extreme makeovers are all the rage these days, with too many people addicted to Botox injection parties and reality shows. Plastic surgery is on the rise. Many people are trying to match the extraordinary measures actors and actresses go through to look perfect on the screen. Yet, the shortcuts to create biomedical happiness by having surgery, taking supplements or dieting don39。re lying. She has spent countless hours worrying about the differences between her looks and Cindy Crawford39。四十多年來，我在聽男性談?wù)撆詴r，從來沒有一次聽到過哪位男性這樣說：“她的指甲真漂亮啊！”對大多數(shù)男性來說，像指甲這樣小的東西看起來都一樣，無論一個女士的指甲是用粉色指甲油涂得完美無瑕，還是光光的毫無修飾，男性都一概視而不見。我的意思是你不可能讓一群中年男子在布拉德所有這些婦女都非常忠實(shí)地按照辛迪說的做了。這個玩偶盡管樣子不好看，但仍然非常自信。她把身體上的極小的不完美之處加以放大，并且幻想這些缺點(diǎn)十分明顯，以至于全世界的人都會注意到并且嘲笑她。男性不是特別注重自己的外貌，也不會從美學(xué)的角度去審視自己。4 Most men, I believe, are not arrogant about their looks. If the transient thought passes through their minds at all, they like to think of themselves as averagelooking. Being average doesn39。2 You must be careful how you answer this question. The best technique is to form an honest yet sensitive response, then promptly excuse yourself for some kind of emergency. Trust me, this is the easiest way out. No amount of rehearsal will help you e up with the right answer.對于如何應(yīng)對這個問題，你一定得小心。賭徒們冒著高風(fēng)險，把錢投入老虎機(jī)，期望能夠得到很大的回報，但隨著一次次拉動拉桿，他們也一次次把錢賭輸了。由于記憶的留存和重拾會因?yàn)槭录纳鷦优c否、震撼程度和情感觸動程度的不同而產(chǎn)生偏差，那么，基于這些記憶所作出的決定也往往會是奇怪或不準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論。s confidence vastly exceeds the accuracy of those judgments. This bias most frequently es into play in areas where someone has no direct evidence and must make a guess — estimating how many people are in a crowded plaza, for example, or how likely it will rain. To make matters worse, even when people are aware of overconfidence bias, they will still tend to overstate the chances that they are correct. Confidence is no prophet and is best used together with available evidence. When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.與“確定性偏差”相類似的是“過度自信偏差”。舉一個例子，你可能會毫無根據(jù)地假定自己的房子會升值，哪怕周圍百分之九十的房子都已經(jīng)貶值了，因?yàn)槟憧傉J(rèn)為自己的能力更強(qiáng)。3 One of the most mon biases is what is known as the fundamental attribution error. Through this people attribute the failures of others to character flaws and their own to mere circumstance, subconsciously considering their own characters to be stainless. Jenkins lost his job because of his inpetence。是我讓他同意你們的協(xié)議的，這樣他就能擁有你的夾克！”TextBWhy do smart people do dumb things?聰明人為何會做蠢事？1 Orthodox views prize intelligence and intellectual rigor highly in the modern realm of universities and tech industry jobs. One of the underlying assumptions of