中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)：中期校正和長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)【外文翻譯】-文庫(kù)吧資料
2025-05-22 17:48本頁(yè)面
【正文】 wo to two and a half years (September 2020–early 2020). From a longerterm perspective, the factors for sustainable growth of the housing market remain sound. These include relatively strong economic growth, positive demographic trends, urbanization, and upgrades in living standards. Along with the credit crunch and global economic recession in the United States, China’ s gross domestic product (GDP) growth started to slow down in the second half of 2020 with the real estate market experiencing a midterm correction since late 2020. Understanding the development and current state of this sector is important in answering questions regarding the pace of China’ s overall growth and the likely government policies in the ing years. China’s Real Estate Market Development The real estate market began to take form after China’ s Constitution was changed to permit transfer of stateowned landuse rights in 1988. Since the housing market reform from 1998 to 1999, modity housing has e to China’ s property market, replacing and mainstreaming stateprovided housing. Being marketoriented, private developers built mainly modity housing, selling to a middle to highine group. The private sector’ s incentive in the development of lowend housing is low due to lower profitability, lack of petition, and payment of a penalty for being lean and efficient. Therefore, government needs to take the initiative in the development of housing for the low to middleine group which would be considered as “ quasipublic goods.” Real estate has bee a political football, kicked in different directions by peting interest groups. Regulators find themselves in multiple positions, enjoying revenues from land sales and property taxes, but are under great pressure to cool off the market when it is overheating and to revive the market when it is falling sharply. The current real estate market downturn started with a policy tightening in late 2020. In the first half of 2020, China’ s GDP growth reached a fiveyear record high of percent, with investment and lending expected to accelerate. Along with the global energy and modity bubbles,inflation was increasing rapidly, and plaints about rising housing prices and declining affordability became widespread. The American subprime crisis left a profound warning about the danger of a housing bubble and its subsequent correction. It was against this backdrop that the government had to gradually tighten macroeconomic policies and the property sector was singled out in the overall macro tightening. The most important ponent of China’ s macroeconomic tightening policy package launched in late 2020 was the austere measures imposed on the property sector. These can be summarized as: (1) tightening land policy to prevent land hoarding and improve efficiency of land use。 (2) tightening mortgage policy to reduce speculative investments。 (4) increasing the supply of smaller and cheaper housing units to lower the average prices of residential properties. Another macroeconomic factor was the influence of wealth originating from the stock market. This may have contributed to rising property prices, but it also contributed to the succeeding downside bust. The Shanghai Ashare posite index went up by 473 percent between January 2020 and October 2020, then subsequently fell by more than 60 percent. The driving forces of the sharp correction in the stock market include: (1) interest rate hikes, as well as other credit and investment tightening measures, reducing liquidity ing into the stock market。 (3) the prospect of a surging supply of shares produced by the unfreezing of nontradable shares and new share issuance. The property sector had been
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