【正文】 。第二，前等比后等額還貸模式。當時，并設時，可稱為前等額后等比還貸模式，可推導出還貸方式為：其中：當g=0或t=1時，即為等額還款模式；拼T時為全程等比還貸模式；g0時為遞增方式還貸；gO時為遞減方式還貸。該方式適用于目前收入按一定的比例增長(或減少)，而增長(或減少)到一定期限后，收入將趨于穩(wěn)定的家庭。第三，階段性等比還貸模式。當，并設時，可稱為階段式還貸模式，推導得出還貸公式為：令當kt=T，有k二T/t，a可簡化為：當g=0或t=T時，即為等額還款模式；t=1時為全程等比還貸模式；g0時為遞增方式還貸；g0時為遞減方式還貸。該模式適用于收入按階段等比(或減少)，呈現(xiàn)一種穩(wěn)定、跳躍、穩(wěn)定、跳躍.…變化趨勢的家庭。（二）、等額累進還款法。與等比累進還款法基本相同，只是把固定比例改為固定數(shù)額。參考文獻[1]郝鈺 中南財經(jīng)大學 2005（01）[2]李勇 商業(yè)銀行個人住房貸款分析 2005(6)[3]周浩 商業(yè)銀行個人住房貸款分析2005（9）[4]張勇 個人住房貸款風險分析及防范 現(xiàn)代金融 2005（12）[5]董易 關于個人住房貸款風險分析 東南金融 2005（1）[6]張智瑞 陳靜 談個人住房貸款風險的防范 財政金融2006（12）[7]孫德春 田淑華 個人住房貸款操作風險防范要點 金融理論與實踐2006（12）[8]約瑟夫F(中譯本)，北京:中國金融出版社，2001[9]王福林，田傳浩，中國房地產(chǎn)金融，2003(8)[10]余麗鵬 ，2003(8)[11]汪利娜 ，2002(9)[12]張紅 個人住房按揭貸款提前償付風險問題研究，中國房地產(chǎn)金融2002（10）[13]侯新貸 田策 住房抵押貸款保險研究（J），中國房地產(chǎn)金融2002(11)[14]丁磊 異地購房者引發(fā)個人住房貸款問題探析（J），中國房地產(chǎn)金融2002[15] Jacky laoluns mercial housing mortgage loans and the legal relationship of risk prevention 2006(3)[16] individual housing loan risk analysis 2005(5)　[17] shipin Lee Dayyang Liu2001 An analysis of default risk on residential mortgage loans International joural of management vol18(4) 421致謝本論文的工作是在我的導師陶新桂老師的悉心指導下完成的，從論文的選題、寫作、修改到定稿，每個環(huán)節(jié)都滲透著她的心血和汗水，得到了她的精心指導和熱心幫助。導師嚴謹?shù)闹螌W態(tài)度，淵博的學識造詣，睿智的科學思考，知難而進的科研追求，忘我的工作作風，以及對我的悉心指導、鼓勵和關懷，時刻激勵和鞭策著我，是我戰(zhàn)勝困難的巨大動力，使我終身受益，終身難忘。導師高尚的學術(shù)風格、博大的處世胸懷、平易近人的作風將對我今后的工作產(chǎn)生深遠的影響，在此謹向?qū)熤乱哉\摯的感謝和崇高的敬意!同時，深深感謝上海大學，特別是房地產(chǎn)學院所有對我的學業(yè)給予過幫助、關心、支持和諄諄教導的各位老師!最后衷心地感謝將要花費大量寶貴時間和精力審閱本論文以及參加答辯的諸位專家學者、評委老師!由于作者學識有限，論文難免有錯誤之處，敬請批評指正。謝謝!附錄：節(jié)選自：Jacky laoluns mercial housing mortgage loans and the legal relationship of risk preventionIn recent years, the rapid development of China39。s real estate industry, and gradually bee a new growth point of national economy and consumption of hot spots. As we all know, the real estate industry is a typical capitalintensive industry, a lot of money to support their development needs, the current Chinese real estate enterprises rarely direct financing through capital markets, most of the indirect financing through banks, other financial support to individual housing consumption also the main channel or banks, so the real estate industry being more and more dependent on mercial bank credit. However, our current credit system, as imperfect and Commercial Bank of China within the current system of imperfect credit, real estate on the banks of a high degree of dependence will inevitably bring about a potential real estate credit risk, if the macroeconomic, policy and marketoriented may result in loss of assets to the bank would form a nonperforming assets. Therefore, the real estate lending of banks to strengthen risk management of research on preventing and eliminating the risk of bank real estate loans, to improve the quality of bank real estate loan assets, the promotion of fundamental improvement in the situation of banks to ensure a healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, has a very significance. First, the paper analysis of the status quo of the real estate credit risk, the mercial bank real estate credit risk management, risk management into real estate development loans, individual housing loans and mercial bank risk management operational risk management within the three areas, then the use of information economics theory, wave theory of economic cycles and real estate bubbles formation of the risk model underlying causes Finally, based on risk identification, risk assessment and risk prevention, and treatment procedures, the above three aspects were discussed according to their characteristics. Risk management in real estate development loans, the first empirical analysis with the main risk types, then use real estate development loan risk degree on the assessment of credit risk, credit risk with the risk warnings size chart for visual analysis, and finally made the real estate business diversification of financing channels, such as credit funds of closedend management measures to prevent and resolve。 in individual housing loan risk management, focusing through right encourage borrowers default behavior and mathematical and physical analysis, made from the establishment of macro and micro level evaluation model to assess the risk of individual housing loans, the last person actually paid by building capacity analysis framework and the Chinese mercial bank mortgage securities operation mode measure Lai Fang Fan and spread credit risk。 in the mercial bank’s internal operational risk management, analysis of the current mercial bank real estate loan problems in the internal operation of proposed real estate loan process by retransformation of the whole process of operation of strict management, real estate loan officer incentive scheme design, bank real estate credit risk information sharing and the establishment to control Linkage System control the bank39。s internal operations real estate credit risk. 譯文：近幾年來，我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展，并逐漸成為國民經(jīng)濟新的增長點和消費熱點。眾所周知，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是典型的資金密集型行業(yè)，其發(fā)展需要大量資金支持，目前我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)很少能通過資本市場直接融資，絕大部分是通過銀行間接融 資，另外個人住房消費資金支持的主要渠道也還是銀行，所以房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展越來越依賴商業(yè)銀行的信貸支持?？墒怯捎谖覀兡壳靶庞弥贫鹊牟煌晟埔约拔覈壳吧虡I(yè)銀行內(nèi)部信貸制度的不完善，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對銀行的高度依賴性勢必會帶來潛在的房地產(chǎn)信貸風險，如果宏觀經(jīng)濟、政策以及市場變化，也可能就會給銀行造成資產(chǎn)損失，形成不良資產(chǎn)。所以加強對銀行房地產(chǎn)貸款業(yè)務的風險管理研究，對防范和化解銀行房地產(chǎn)貸款風險，提高銀行房地產(chǎn)貸款資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量，促進銀行經(jīng)營狀況的根本好轉(zhuǎn)，保障房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，都具有十分重要的意義。論文首先從分析我國房地產(chǎn)信貸風險現(xiàn)狀入手，把商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)信貸風險管理分為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款風險管理、個人住房貸款風險管理和商業(yè)銀行內(nèi)部操作風險管理三個方面，然后利用信息經(jīng)濟學原理、經(jīng)濟周期波動理論以及房地產(chǎn)泡沫形成模型分析風險形成的深層原因，最后依據(jù)風險識別、風險評估以及風險防范和處理的程序，對以上三方面根據(jù)各自特點分別論述。在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款風險管理中，先用實證法分析主要風險類型，然后利用貸款風險度對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款風險進行評估，借助貸款風險示警圖進行對風險大小進行直觀分析，最后提出房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)融資渠道的多元化、信貸資金的封閉式管理等防范與化解措施；在個人住房貸款風險管理中，著重通過對借款人違約行為和違約機理進行數(shù)理分析，提出從宏觀和微觀兩個層面建立評估模型對個人住房貸款風險進行評估，最后通過構(gòu)建個人實際支付能力分析框架及我國商業(yè)銀行住房抵押貸款證券化運作模式等措施來防范和分散貸款風險；在商業(yè)銀行內(nèi)部操作風險管理中，分析了目前商業(yè)銀行房地產(chǎn)信貸內(nèi)部操作中存在的問題，提出通過房地產(chǎn)信貸流程的再改造、操作全過程嚴格管理、房地產(chǎn)信貸人員激勵機制的設計、銀行信息共享與房地產(chǎn)信貸風險控制聯(lián)動體系建立來控制銀行內(nèi)部房地產(chǎn)信貸的操作風險