銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)原文-資料下載頁(yè)
2025-04-19 01:00本頁(yè)面
【正文】 banking problem.由于這個(gè)原因，最重要的制度特征是金融自由化時(shí)期，一段金融自由化時(shí)期經(jīng)常與一個(gè)嚴(yán)肅的銀行業(yè)問題聯(lián)系在一起。The particular measure of financial liberalization in Hutchison and McDill is the deregulation of interest rates. In many economies, this era usually heralded liberalization not only in the pricing of financial assets, but also in the types of assets allowed and the development of more open and petitive financial markets. 在哈奇森和麥克迪爾看來，金融自由化的具體措施是放寬利率。在許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，通常不僅預(yù)示著金融資產(chǎn)定價(jià)的自由化，更是一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類型開放和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力激烈的金融市場(chǎng)。In other words, banks faced greater market petition at a time when they also were taking on new and unfamiliar risks on both the asset and liability side of balance sheets. The evidence suggests that this is a particularly vulnerable time for banks in managing risk that sends a clear warning signal for financial supervisors. 換句話說,銀行面臨更大的一次市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)他們還對(duì)新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)在采取資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債方。有證據(jù)表明，這是一個(gè)在向管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)部門，金融監(jiān)管特別是陷入危機(jī)的銀行發(fā)送一個(gè)明確的警告信號(hào)。Avoiding banking crises An example of the model39。s (modest) predictive power is Japan. Figure 1 shows the model39。s forecasts of the probability of the onset of Japanese banking distress that did in fact emerge in the early 1990s. 事實(shí)上在上個(gè)世紀(jì)90年代早期，日本的一個(gè)模型預(yù)測(cè)了日本銀行發(fā)生危機(jī)的可能性。Only oneyear lagged macroeconomic variables were used in the forecast, so the reported forecasts of the probability of the onset of an episode may be interpreted as an early Warning indicator of impending problems. 在預(yù)測(cè)中只使用了一年的滯后宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，所以預(yù)測(cè)危機(jī)發(fā)生的概率是作為一個(gè)早期危機(jī)預(yù)警。The forecast probability of a problem rises from 2% in 1990 to 13% in 1992, roughly tracking the emergence of serious banking distress in Japan. (The model with contemporaneous variables predicts a 20% probability of banking distress in 1992.) Though 13% may not seem a high probability, it should be seen in light of the magnitude of the event: the sharp rise warns that something is amiss. 對(duì)一種危機(jī)的預(yù)測(cè)概率從1990年的2%到1992年的13%，大約跟蹤除了銀行危機(jī)在日本的產(chǎn)生（模型顯示20%的預(yù)測(cè)概率銀行將在1992年陷入危機(jī)）。雖然13%的概率看上去不高，但它應(yīng)被視為嚴(yán)重性事件，所以大幅度提高警惕沒什么不妥。Early warning systems of impending banking sector problems are not very accurate. Nonetheless, case studies and the empirical evidence point to some policy implications. 早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)與銀行業(yè)來說不是很準(zhǔn)確，然而，案例研究和實(shí)證結(jié)果指出了一些政策的影響。In particular, the vulnerable transition period as financial markets liberalize appears to warrant a larger mitment of resources and a more vital role for the regulatory and supervisory authorities. 特別是脆弱的過渡時(shí)期金融市場(chǎng)需要一個(gè)更大的資源保證，為此監(jiān)管當(dāng)局發(fā)揮著更重要的作用。Financial liberalization in many countries proceeded without these safeguards. Resources devoted to the supervision of . thrifts, for example, were reduced as the industry was increasingly deregulated in the early 1980s. 很多國(guó)家的金融自由的進(jìn)展沒有這些保障，例如，在20世紀(jì)80年代初美國(guó)儲(chǔ)蓄機(jī)構(gòu)日益減少對(duì)行業(yè)的管制。The supervisory authorities of Japan, Sweden, and elsewhere were similarly unprepared for the enhanced banking risks associated with the era of financial liberalization. Banking problems have provided an impetus to institutional reform of the supervisory agencies of the . and elsewhere. For example, recently created financial supervisory agencies in Japan and Koreaallowing greater autonomy, emphasizing rules rather than discretion in dealing with problem institutions, and forcing greater disclosure and transparency in the supervisory processappear to be appropriate responses to these countries39。 banking problems. 日本，瑞典的監(jiān)管當(dāng)局，以及類似的其他地方，對(duì)于加強(qiáng)銀行與金融自由化時(shí)代相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備。銀行問題提供了一個(gè)推動(dòng)的美國(guó)和其他地方的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的改革。例如，最近在日本和韓國(guó)建立金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu) ， 允許多的自主權(quán)，注重規(guī)則，而不是自由處理機(jī)構(gòu)問題，在處理國(guó)家銀行問題時(shí)，提高信息披露的透明度。16 / 1
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