【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 finding sources of new data that can serve as leading indicators or by having different products share mon ponents as much as possible so that the demand for ponents bees more predictable. 供應(yīng)鏈的響應(yīng)能力 ?創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的反應(yīng)性供應(yīng) ? 第一步只不過是 接受 這一事實：不確定性是創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品所固有的。 ? 一旦一個公司承認了需求的不確定性，它就可以運用三種相互協(xié)調(diào)的策略對這種不確定性予以管理： ?它可以繼續(xù)致力于 降低 不確定性 ——譬如通過找到可以充當前導(dǎo)指標的新數(shù)據(jù)來源；或者通過讓不同產(chǎn)品共享盡可能多的共用元件，以提高元件需求的可預(yù)測性。 SC Responsiveness ?It can avoid uncertainty by cutting lead times and increasing the supply chain’s flexibility so that it can produce to order or at least manufacture the product at a time closer to when demand materializes and can be accurately forecast. ?Once uncertainty has been reduced or avoided as much as possible, it can hedge against the remaining residual uncertainty with buffers of inventory or excess capacity ? New movement: mass customization (building the ability to customize a large volume of products and deliver them at close to massproduction prices ? Sport Obermeyer’s approach, which has been called accurate response, has cut the cost of both overproduction and underproduction in half—enough to increase profits by 60%. 供應(yīng)鏈的響應(yīng)能力 ?它可以通過縮短前導(dǎo)時間和增加供應(yīng)鏈的靈活性來避免不確定性，這樣，它就可以按訂單生產(chǎn)，或者至少可以在臨近需求實現(xiàn)并可進行準確預(yù)報的時間點上制造產(chǎn)品。 ?一旦不確定性得到盡可能的減少或避免，它就可以通過利用庫存緩沖力或超剩余產(chǎn)能來防范殘余的不確定性。 ? 新發(fā)展：大量定制化（培養(yǎng)大量產(chǎn)品的定制化能力，并以接近批量生產(chǎn)的價格發(fā)貨） ? 奧伯邁耶體育用品公司采用的方法，即所謂精確響應(yīng)，將生產(chǎn)過剩和生產(chǎn)不足的成本都降低了一半 ——足以將利潤提高 60%。 ? The intangible costs of coordination include the cost of inventory meant to ensure that products are available. ? Reason 1: managers typically place orders with their own suppliers before they receive their “customers” orders, so they must forecast—or guess—how much demand there will be for which of their large variety of items. Sport Obermeyer places its orders in November, but only receives its first orders from retailers in March, all for a selling season that begins in September ? Reason 2: The anizations in supply chain often do not share information about sales forecasts。 instead, each level of the supply chain uses finished goods inventory to try to have on hand what is needed for their customers: each supplier makes extra orders “justincase,” swelling raw materials and finished goods inventories. Because they pass orders up and down the supply chain with lots of guessing, they (in addition) tend to exaggerate small changes seen at the consumer leveljust as in a large game of telephone in which each person whispers the message they hear to the next person, but the message bee highly garbled after a fairly short series of transmissions Sketch of Sport Obermeyer Timing of Operations and Orders Throughout the Year ?協(xié)調(diào)方面的無形成本包括為確保產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)而付出的庫存成本 ? 理由 1: 經(jīng)理人一般在他們收到“客戶”訂單之前向自己的供應(yīng)商提出訂單，因此，他們必須預(yù)測 ——或者猜測 ——其種類繁多的貨品當中到底哪一種商品有需求、需求量有多大。奧伯邁耶體育用品公司在 11月份提出訂單，但直到次年 3月才收到首批零售商的訂單，全部是為 9月份開始的銷售季節(jié)訂的貨。 ? 理由 2: 供應(yīng)鏈上的各個單位一般不共享銷售預(yù)測信息；而供應(yīng)鏈的每一層都盡量利用成品庫存保證現(xiàn)貨以應(yīng)客戶所需：每個供應(yīng)商都超額訂購只為“以防萬一”，使得原材料和成品存貨猛增。由于在供應(yīng)鏈中向上和向下傳遞訂單時帶有大量的猜測因素，他們（還）傾向于夸大發(fā)生在客戶層的微小變化 ——就象一場大型的電話游戲，每個人都把自己聽到的信息悄聲傳給下一個人，但是經(jīng)過短短的一段傳遞之后，原來的信息已經(jīng)面目全非了。 奧伯邁耶體育用品公司全年運作和訂單時間選擇略圖 November (previous year) November March August September February Far East Take orders Make fabric Assemble clothes Deliver to Colorado Colorado Design clothes Make forecasts of sales and hot styles Order textiles and styles Las Vegas show Warehouse Distribution to retailers American retailers