【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 By Dai Lian Page43 條件圖法 PMBOK Conditional Diagramming Method GERT：圖形評(píng)審技術(shù) 允許回路（ LOOP，如：重復(fù)多次進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)測(cè)試）或條件分枝 （ Conditional branches，如：只有當(dāng)檢測(cè)出錯(cuò)誤時(shí)才進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)更新）的存在，這是 PDM和 ADM所不允許的。 Conditional and probabilistic treatment System Dynamics Models：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)模型 By Dai Lian Page44 工期 =7 Task A ES EF LS LF 工期 =6 Task C ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task G ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task B ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task D ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task F ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task E ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task H ES EF LS LF 開(kāi)始 結(jié)束 計(jì)算 By Dai Lian Page45 子網(wǎng)絡(luò) Sub Nets – Frags PMBOK 網(wǎng)絡(luò)模板（ Network templates） 使制圖過(guò)程更便捷。 可包括整個(gè)項(xiàng)目，也可是其中一部分。 網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一部分稱為：子網(wǎng)絡(luò)。 特別用于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中有重疊或相似內(nèi)容時(shí)。 例如：蓋樓的每一層、醫(yī)藥臨床等。 By Dai Lian Page46 趕工 Crashing: 成本與進(jìn)度的平衡 /折衷。（ cost and schedule tradeoff）。 確定如何用最小的成本獲得最大的工期壓縮。 通常成本增加。 快速跟進(jìn) Fast tracking: 將前后順序變?yōu)槠叫? （ change sequence to parallel）。 通常風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。 工期壓縮 Duration Compression PMBOK By Dai Lian Page47 Resource Leveling/Smoothing/Allocation: 用在 resources constraint circumstances. 將稀缺資源先分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上。 Allocate scare resources to the Critical Path Activities first. 通常導(dǎo)致比最初進(jìn)度更長(zhǎng)的工期。 Often result the longer duration than preliminary schedule. 資源重新分配 （ Resource Reallocation） : 用在 time constraint circumstances 將資源從非關(guān)鍵路徑上重新分配到關(guān)鍵路徑上，以彌補(bǔ)已經(jīng)落今后的進(jìn)度，或盡可能接近原定工期。（ Resources reallocated from noncritical to critical activities to bring the schedule back， or as close as possible to its originally intended overall duration.） Extend hours, weekends, multiple shifts. Increase productivity by using different technologies and machinery. 啟發(fā)式資源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics By Dai Lian Page48 啟發(fā)式資源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics 資源逆向分配 （ Reverse resource allocation scheduling） : 有限或關(guān)鍵資源（ Finite and critical resource). 從項(xiàng)目結(jié)束時(shí)間逆推進(jìn)度（ Scheduled backwards from ending date） 關(guān)鍵路徑資源計(jì)劃 Critical Chain resource Planning: A technique modifies the schedule to account for limited resources. Question: Add more people on a task can increase or decrease the productivity? By Dai Lian Page49 進(jìn)度更新 Schedule Updates PMBOK 更新 Update: Modification to schedule May or May Not require to adjustments to other aspects of project Plan. 修訂 Revision: Special category of Update. Change to the start and finish dates in approved project schedule. Generally in response to the scope changes or changes to estimate. 重新確定基線 Rebaselining: While schedule severe delay, the original performance measurement baseline not applicable Be careful, since the historical data will be lost. By Dai Lian Page50 成本管理 （ Cost Management） What’s cost management? Including: Initiate the project Estimating Organizing Controlling Analyzing Reporting Forecasting Taking necessary corrective action when required. By Dai Lian Page51 關(guān)于成本管理的問(wèn)題 成本管理的目的？ 確保在批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)算內(nèi)完成項(xiàng)目的各個(gè)過(guò)程。 成本管理的方法？ 資源計(jì)劃 、 成本的估算、預(yù)算、控制 誰(shuí)對(duì)成本在不同時(shí)間有不同的需求？ 管理層（實(shí)施結(jié)果，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)與識(shí)別），買方（不同的合同類型下） 針對(duì)不同的管理需要，成本有哪些類型？ 可控、不可控；固定、變動(dòng)；直接、間接 … 如何控制與管理變更？ 糾正措施？ S曲線？掙值？ By Dai Lian Page52 成本估算技術(shù) （ Cost Estimating Techniques） ? 模擬 (類比 )估算 Analogous Estimating – ―top down‖。 using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate ? Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise – form of expert judgment ? 參數(shù)模型 Parametric Modeling – uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs ( houses) ? Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve ? 從下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating – rolling up individual activities into project total – smaller work activities have more accuracy ? 計(jì)算機(jī)工具 Computerized tools – spreadsheets, software By Dai Lian Page53 估算的準(zhǔn)確性 (Accuracy of Estimates） ? 量級(jí)估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate: ? 25% to 75%。 ? Without detailed data, Best guess, usually made during Initiation Phase ? Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary ? 預(yù)算估算 Budget Estimate: ? 10% to 25%。 ? More better data, usually made during the Planning phase ? Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design ? 確定估算 Definitive Estimate: ? 5% to 10%。 ? Well defined data, usually bottom up. ? Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes. By Dai Lian Page54 估算的準(zhǔn)確性 ?Cost Estimates: – 量級(jí)估算 Order of Magnitude (ballpark estimate)： During initial evaluation – 預(yù)算估算 Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval. – 確定估算 Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract change etc. Order of Magnitude Definitive Estimate Budget Estimate 75% 25% 25% 10% 10% 5% By Dai Lian Page55 生命周期成本（ Life cycle costing） ?開(kāi)發(fā)成本 Development cost ?生產(chǎn)成本 Production cost ?運(yùn)維成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost ?處置成本 Discard cost – Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (. 電池，化學(xué)品 etc.) By Dai Lian Page56 Time Value of Money ? PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest)n ? NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflow – NPV0, go – NPV=0, consider – NPV0, no go ? IRR = that rate of discount at which the sum of the positive present values is equal to the sum of the negative present values. OR cost equal revenue and project is a break even. By Dai Lian Page57 相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)術(shù)語(yǔ)及概念的介紹 ? Accounting Standards – Distinguish Price and Cost. – Present Value: value today of future cash flows – Net Present Value: total benefits (ine or revenue) less the costs. NPV is the sum of each present value of each ine/revenue item – Internal Rate of Return (IRR): pany may select project based on highest IRR – Payback Period: number of time periods it takes to recover the investment in the project before generating revenues – Opportunity Cost: opportunity gi