【正文】 ondly, the risk of field spectator violence was constituted with risk factors of field spectator violence, accident and loss. Thirdly, the risk transmitting model of field spectator violence was constructed with field spectator violence event chain which analyzed the process of field spectator violence. TPB explained the process about spectators’ psychological changes. Then the theory of social amplification of risk explained the upgrade process of field spectator violence. In the end, the risk management of field spectator violence included risk identification, risk assessment and risk treatment. The risk treatment system could be analyzed from the selection and the implementation of the means of field spectator violence risk control. The purpose of this dissertation was to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical study. Key words: field spectator violence。 risk treatment 3 目 錄 1 引言 ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 2 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險特征及風(fēng)險構(gòu)成 .................................................................................................. 5 相關(guān)概念的界定 ........................................................................................................................... 5 球場觀眾暴力 ........................................................................................................................ 5 風(fēng)險 ......................................................................................................................................... 6 風(fēng)險管理 ................................................................................................................................ 6 大型社會活動風(fēng)險 ................................................................................................................ 6 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險 .............................................................................................................. 7 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險特征 ............................................................................................................... 7 球場觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險構(gòu)成 ........................................................................................................... 9 “實體 ”學(xué)派思維下的球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險構(gòu)成 ..................................................................... 9 從 “建構(gòu) ”學(xué)派思維角度看待球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險構(gòu)成 ...................................................... 11 哲學(xué)視野下球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險屬性與趨勢分析 ...................................................................... 11 從必然性與偶 然性的關(guān)系中認(rèn)識球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險的屬性 .......................................... 11 從可能性與現(xiàn)實性的關(guān)系上認(rèn)識球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險的趨勢 .......................................... 11 3 球場觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險發(fā)生模型 ........................................................................................................ 12 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險事件鏈 ......................................................................................................... 12 基于 TPB 的球場觀眾 “暴力意向 —暴力行為 ”過程分析 ......................................................... 13 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險社會放大效應(yīng) .............................................................................................. 14 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險發(fā)生模型 ..................................................................................................... 16 4 球場觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險識別 ................................................................................................................ 17 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險識別的基本內(nèi)容 .......................................................................................... 17 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險源與風(fēng)險因素分析 ...................................................................................... 18 國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究 ................................................................................................................... 18 基于 FTA 的球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險源與風(fēng)險因素分析 ......................................................... 19 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險因素之間相關(guān)關(guān)系 .............................................................................. 22 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險識別方法 ..................................................................................................... 23 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險識別工具 ............................................................................................... 23 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險識別方法 ............................................................................................... 24 5 球場觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險評估 ................................................................................................................ 28 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險評估的基本理論 .......................................................................................... 28 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險評估的內(nèi)容 ................................................................................................. 29 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險評估的方法 ................................................................................................ 29 6 球場觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對 ................................................................................................................ 32 選擇球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險控制手段的原則 ................................................................................ 32 區(qū)別對待原則 ——針對事件的不同性質(zhì) ......................................................................... 32 優(yōu)先原則 ——根據(jù)帕累托分析結(jié)果排序 ........................................................................... 33 “事件 —方法 ”對應(yīng)原則 ——根據(jù)事件的風(fēng)險狀況與風(fēng)險管理的目的 ............................ 34 4 球場觀眾暴力風(fēng)險控制手段的實施 .......................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險回避 ............................................................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)移 .............................................................................................................................. 35 風(fēng)險控制 ............................................................................................................................... 36 風(fēng)險自留 ..............................................................................