【正文】 ndly, the risk of field spectator violence was constituted with risk factors of field spectator violence, accident and loss. Thirdly, the risk transmitting model of field spectator violence was constructed with field spectator violence event chain which analyzed the process of field spectator violence. TPB explained the process about spectators’ psychological changes. Then the theory of social amplification of risk explained the upgrade process of field spectator violence. In the end, the risk management of field spectator violence included risk identification, risk assessment and risk treatment. The risk treatment system could be analyzed from the selection and the implementation of the means of field spectator violence risk control. The purpose of this dissertation was to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical study. Key words: field spectator violence。 risk treatment 3 目 錄 1 引言 ..............................................................................................................................................................5 2 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 .......................................................................................................5 相關(guān)概念的界定 ..................................................................................................................................5 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力 ..............................................................................................................................5 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ................................................................................................................................................6 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 ......................................................................................................................................6 大型社會(huì)活動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ......................................................................................................................6 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ....................................................................................................................7 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征 .....................................................................................................................7 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 .................................................................................................................9 “實(shí)體 ”學(xué)派思維下的球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 ........................................................................9 從 “建構(gòu) ”學(xué)派思維角度看待球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)成 .........................................................11 哲學(xué)視野下球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)屬性與趨勢(shì)分析 .........................................................................11 從必然性與偶然性的關(guān)系中認(rèn)識(shí)球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性 .............................................11 從可能性與現(xiàn)實(shí)性的關(guān)系上認(rèn)識(shí)球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的趨勢(shì) .............................................11 3 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生模型 ............................................................................................................. 12 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件鏈 .............................................................................................................. 12 基于 TPB 的球場(chǎng)觀眾 “暴力意向 —暴力行為 ”過(guò)程分析 ........................................................... 13 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)社會(huì)放大效應(yīng) ................................................................................................. 14 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生模型 .......................................................................................................... 16 4 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別 ..................................................................................................................... 17 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的基本內(nèi)容 ............................................................................................. 17 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分析 .......................................................................................... 18 國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究 ........................................................................................................................ 18 基于 FTA 的球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素分析 ............................................................ 19 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間相關(guān)關(guān)系 ................................................................................. 22 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法 .......................................................................................................... 23 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別工具 ................................................................................................... 23 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法 ................................................................................................... 24 5 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 ..................................................................................................................... 28 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的基本理論 ............................................................................................. 28 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的內(nèi)容 ...................................................................................................... 29 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方法 .................................................................................................... 29 6 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì) ..................................................................................................................... 32 選擇球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制手段的原則 ................................................................................... 32 區(qū)別對(duì)待原則 ——針對(duì)事件的不同性質(zhì) ............................................................................ 32 優(yōu)先原則 ——根據(jù)帕累托分析結(jié)果排序 .............................................................................. 33 “事件 —方法 ”對(duì)應(yīng)原則 ——根據(jù)事件的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目的 ............................. 34 4 球場(chǎng)觀眾暴力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制手段的實(shí)施 ............................................................................................. 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回避 .................................................................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移 ................................................................................................................................... 35 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制 .............................................................