【正文】 ...................................11從銀行股價(jià)變動(dòng)看兩次降息帶來(lái)的深刻影響 .........................................................................12一、第一次降息的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng) ................................................................................................................12二、第二次降息的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng) ................................................................................................................13三、我們離存款利率放開(kāi)管制還有多遠(yuǎn)？ ........................................................................................15四、銀行業(yè) ROE 水平將回落至 15%左右 .............................................................................................15五、現(xiàn)價(jià)隱含較高的不良率預(yù)期 ........................................................................................................17〖趨勢(shì)判斷〗 .............................................................................................................................18中國(guó)銀行業(yè) 10 年融資路與貨幣擴(kuò)張之變 ...............................................................................18一、銀行拿了多少錢(qián)？ ........................................................................................................................18二、銀行為什么拿這么多錢(qián)？ ............................................................................................................20三、銀行還能放貸多少？對(duì)貨幣擴(kuò)張有什么影響 ............................................................................24〖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理〗 .............................................................................................................................27淺析我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系的構(gòu)建 .........................................................................27一、商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本內(nèi)涵 ....................................................................................................27二、我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的現(xiàn)狀和存在的問(wèn)題 ............................................................................30三、完善我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系 ................................................................................................31〖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量〗 .............................................................................................................................36中國(guó) 17 家主要商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定狀況定量分析 ...........................................................................36一、盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................................................36二、資產(chǎn)分析 ........................................................................................................................................39三、負(fù)債、資本與流動(dòng)性 ....................................................................................................................40〖行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)〗 .............................................................................................................................417 月 PMI 顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)承壓政策預(yù)期未現(xiàn) ............................................................................41一、PMI 未能沖破淡季的束縛 .............................................................................................................41二、PMI 行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)印證經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑趨勢(shì)的延續(xù) .....................................................................................42三、總需求仍然疲弱，下半年政策將維持寬松 ................................................................................43〖企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)〗 .............................................................................................................................472022 年 16 月工 業(yè)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析 .....................................................................................47一、利潤(rùn)連續(xù)五個(gè)月負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，降速已出現(xiàn)收窄，但非銷(xiāo)售收入回暖 ............................................47二、預(yù)計(jì) 17 月份工業(yè)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)行較低增速水平 ................................................48三、公用事業(yè)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)，電子設(shè)備有回暖跡象 ................................................................................482 / 92集團(tuán)客戶(hù)授信管理體制問(wèn)題分析及其完善對(duì)策 .....................................................................50一、集團(tuán)客戶(hù)授信管理體制中存在的問(wèn)題分析 ................................................................................50二、完善集團(tuán)客戶(hù)授信管理體制的關(guān)鍵對(duì)策 ....................................................................................51〖經(jīng)營(yíng)分析〗 .............................................................................................................................52中國(guó)銀行業(yè) 7 月份月度盤(pán)點(diǎn)與分析 .........................................................................................52一、宏觀數(shù)據(jù)與信貸數(shù)據(jù) ....................................................................................................................52二、行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài) ........................................................................................................................................57三、銀行動(dòng)態(tài) ........................................................................................................................................60每周 銀 行 觀 察 .....................................................................................................62央行報(bào)告更加凸顯穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)保就業(yè)的重要性地位 .....................................................................62健全資本約束機(jī)制 提升銀行抗險(xiǎn)水平 ....................................................................................63正確認(rèn)知信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的“真面目” .........................................................................................64“促進(jìn)民間資本投資”已成拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要選項(xiàng) .....................................................................64樓市成交持續(xù)回暖中央強(qiáng)調(diào)調(diào)控從嚴(yán) .....................................................................................65政策 變動(dòng) 參考 .....................................................................................................67銀監(jiān)會(huì)召開(kāi)年中監(jiān)管及經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢(shì)分析會(huì)議 .....................................................................67銀監(jiān)會(huì)醞釀銀行資本充足率六年分步達(dá)標(biāo) .............................................................................69穩(wěn)健貨幣政策下的金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與創(chuàng)新 .................................................................................69政府規(guī)避覆轍重蹈 不會(huì)再推大規(guī)模刺激 ................................................................................71經(jīng)濟(jì) 金融 評(píng) 析 .....................................................................................................722022 年全年中國(guó)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)展望 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