【導讀】Global. Regional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorld. incentives.problemcontinues.

　　

【正文】 will need to work through dealers to forge a consensus that benefits both them and the dealers to overe regulatory impediments. Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy amp。 Business, Wall Street Journal, EIU BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP European Automotive Distribution: Increased Competition from EU Legislation Adopted in July 2002, and eventually fully implemented in October 2020, EU legislation for block exemptions will force the automotive distribution systems to bee more petitive, likely creating more price pressure for cars, parts, and services. Under the new rules, manufacturers can: ? Opt for exclusivity, granting exclusive sales territories for their distributors (thus limiting petition among dealers selling the same brand). ? Opt for selectivity, giving the dealer the right to sell cars to nonauthorized resellers, which can, in turn, sell them anywhere in the EU. This also allows manufacturers to ban nonauthorized resellers but permits dealers to sell and market cars directly to consumers anywhere in the EU. ? Much of this new legislation will lead to increased petition. Restrictions on multibrand dealerships are being eased, so brands will get even more petitive. Crossborder trade will also increase, which could lead to greater Inter sales, an acceleration of the consistency of car prices (which vary widely across the EU). ? New rules also threaten car manufacturers share and margins in the aftersales market (where they actually make most of their profit), by breaking down the car business value chain. ? Car makers will also be forced to give independent service providers plete technical information, as well as authorization of service providers. Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy amp。 Business, Wall Street Journal, EIU BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Poor in Short Term, Fair Long Term The outlook for United States passenger car sales growth is poor in the short term while long term prospects are no better than fair. ? The sales picture over the last 18 months has been distorted by sales incentive schemes (like 0% financing) which had immediate results. Sales created out of incentives tend to reflect consumption brought forward rather than new spending. Thus volumes will fall further over 2020. ? The US market is less likely to fall precipitously like previous peaktotrough eras in the automotive industry. Sales fell 29% in the early 1980s and 23% in the early 1990s. The peaktotrough sales from 2001 to 2020 are expected to amount to only 7%. ? The US market is currently saturated which does not bode well for long term growth (average annual growth in passenger car registrations between 2020 and 2020 are expected to be just % a year). This is similar to Germany, France and Italy, but slower than emerging markets. ? Currently none of the US‘s Big 3 automakers are well prepared for a major downturn in the automobile market and their medium term prospects will be constrained by global overcapacity and downward pressure on prices. ? Competition is likely to increase and the industry?s capacity will grow but the elasticity of demand is currently declining. Source: The Economist, , Morgan Stanley BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Macroeconomic Drivers ? The automotive industry has been driven by interest rates which were at 48year lows. Rates are forecast to increase through 2020 which will have some effect on sales. ? GDP is expected to increase in 3Q03 and increase by a point in 4Q03. GDP should stabilize through 2020. ? Unemployment is expected to stabilize as job creation picks up, however not at a rapid rate. 3 . 5 1 . 50 . 52 . 54 . 56 . 51Q012Q013Q014Q011Q022Q023Q024Q021Q032Q033Q034Q031Q042Q043Q044Q041Q052Q053Q054Q05Forecast Source: GDP and Interest Rate forecasts, Interest Rates 34567891011121995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2020 2020 2020 2020I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 1 ) I n t e r e s t R a t e ( 2 ) U n e m p l o y m e n tGDP Notes: (1) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Commercial Bank (2) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Finance Company Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Outlook: Expense and Profitability Forecasts Source: 00 . 511 . 522 . 532000 2001 2002 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rNet Profit Margin (%)99 . 5101 0 . 5111 1 . 5121 2 . 5Operating Margin (%)N e t P r o f i t M a r g i n ( % ) O p e r a t i n g M a r g i n ( % )? Sales have increased but profit margins have suffered due to 0% financing and are only rebounding slightly. Net profits and operating margins should stay flat for the remainder of the forecast. ? Capital spending is expected to increase slightly over the forecast. Ford is expected to spend $1,210 on cap ex/unit produced (GM is at $886). ? Sales will stay flat through 2020 and increase only slightly in 2020. The biggest jump in sales is expected between 2020 and 2020. ? High end, SUV and minivan models offer higher profit margins, but their sales have declined reducing profitability. 01002003004005006007008009002000 2001 2002 2020 2020 2020 2020Y e a rMillions ($)S a l e sO p e r a t i n gE x p e n s e sN e tI n c o m eC a p i t a lS p e n d i n gForecast Forecast BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Global Automotive Industry Outlook: Emerging Markets, Consolidation In the year ahead, there are some significant changes that should affect the global automotive industry, especially in light of its considerable pressures like cost, maintaining production