【正文】 ngmorepricepressureforcars,parts,andservices.Underthenewrules,manufacturerscan:167。 Optforexclusivity,grantingexclusivesalesterritoriesfortheirdistributors(thuslimitingpetitionamongdealerssellingthesamebrand).167。 Optforselectivity,givingthedealertherighttosellcarstononauthorizedresellers,whichcan,inturn,sellthemanywhereintheEU.ThisalsoallowsmanufacturerstobannonauthorizedresellersbutpermitsdealerstosellandmarketcarsdirectlytoconsumersanywhereintheEU.167。 Muchofthisnewlegislationwillleadtoincreasedpetition.Restrictionsonmultibranddealershipsarebeingeased,sobrandswillgetevenmorepetitive.Crossbordertradewillalsoincrease,whichcouldleadtogreaterIntersales,anaccelerationoftheconsistencyofcarprices(whichvarywidelyacrosstheEU).167。 Newrulesalsothreatencarmanufacturersshareandmarginsintheaftersalesmarket(wheretheyactuallymakemostoftheirprofit),bybreakingdownthecarbusinessvaluechain.167。 Carmakerswillalsobeforcedtogiveindependentserviceproviderspletetechnicalinformation,aswellasauthorizationofserviceproviders.Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy Business, Wall Street Journal, EIUBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Outlook: Poor in Short Term, Fair Long TermTheoutlookforUnitedStatespassengercarsalesgrowthispoorintheshorttermwhilelongtermprospectsarenobetterthanfair.167。 Thesalespictureoverthelast18monthshasbeendistortedbysalesincentiveschemes(like0%financing)whichhadimmediateresults.Salescreatedoutofincentivestendtoreflectconsumptionbroughtforwardratherthannewspending.Thusvolumeswillfallfurtherover2023.167。 TheUSmarketislesslikelytofallprecipitouslylikepreviouspeaktotrougherasintheautomotiveindustry.Salesfell29%intheearly1980sand23%intheearly1990s.Thepeaktotroughsalesfrom2023to2023areexpectedtoamounttoonly7%.167。 TheUSmarketiscurrentlysaturatedwhichdoesnotbodewellforlongtermgrowth(averageannualgrowthinpassengercarregistrationsbetween2023and2023areexpectedtobejust%ayear).ThisissimilartoGermany,FranceandItaly,butslowerthanemergingmarkets.167。 CurrentlynoneoftheUS’sBig3automakersarewellpreparedforamajordownturnintheautomobilemarketandtheirmediumtermprospectswillbeconstrainedbyglobalovercapacityanddownwardpressureonprices.167。 Competitionislikelytoincreaseandtheindustry’scapacitywillgrowbuttheelasticityofdemandiscurrentlydeclining.Source: The Economist, , Man StanleyBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Outlook: Macroeconomic Drivers n Theautomotiveindustryhasbeendrivenbyinterestrateswhichwereat48yearlows.Ratesareforecasttoincreasethrough2023whichwillhavesomeeffectonsales.n GDPisexpectedtoincreasein3Q03andincreasebyapointin4Q03.GDPshouldstabilizethrough2023.n Unemploymentisexpectedtostabilizeasjobcreationpicksup,howevernotatarapidrate.ForecastSource: GDP and Interest Rate forecasts, Interest Rates GDPNotes: (1) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Commercial Bank(2) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Finance CompanyForecastBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPUS Automotive Outlook: Expense and Profitability ForecastsSource: n Saleshaveincreasedbutprofitmarginshavesuffereddueto0%financingandareonlyreboundingslightly.Netprofitsandoperatingmarginsshouldstayflatfortheremainderoftheforecast.n Capitalspendingisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyovertheforecast.Fordisexpectedtospend$1,210oncapex/unitproduced(GMisat$886).n Saleswillstayflatthrough2023andincreaseonlyslightlyin2023.Thebiggestjumpinsalesisexpectedbetween2023and2023.n Highend,SUVandminivanmodelsofferhigherprofitmargins,buttheirsaleshavedeclinedreducingprofitability.ForecastForecastBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPGlobal Automotive Industry Outlook: Emerging Markets, ConsolidationIntheyearahead,therearesomesignificantchangesthatshouldaffecttheglobalautomotiveindustry,especiallyinlightofitsconsiderablepressureslikecost,maintainingproductionschedules,andsustainingorgainingmarketshare.167。 LargestemergingmarketsBrazilandChinawillcontributethemostgrowthintermsofdemand.167。 Consolidationcontinuestobeanissuehoweverlocalplayersthatareregionallyornichefocusedwillstillhaveanimportantpresence.167。 Governmentsafetyandenvironmentalregulationscouldbecostlyforautomakersbutalsoleadtogreaterinvestmentsinhightechsuppliers,leadingtoentirelynewautomotiveinnovations.167。 Itislikelythattheglobalautomotiveindustrywilleventuallyneedtoresorttoradicalchangesinordertoseepastprofitability.AutofactsGlobalAutomotiveForecast,2Q‘03Automotive Regional Markets: Business ChallengesBUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUPWestern Europe: Difficult EnvironmentInthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear,theEuropeanautomarketshrank%paredwiththesameperiodin2023.ContinueddifficultmarketsinEuropecouldleadtomoreexportstotheUnitedStateswhichwillfurtherweakenpricingthere.167。 EconomicrecoveryremainsweakinEuropeandgrowthofpassengercarandmercialvehiclesalesisnegative.Europeandemandfortrucksislikelytoremainweakthroughoutthisyear,perhapsstartingtorecoverin2023and2023,dependingonthesegmentandgeographicarea.167。 ConstantpricepressuresarecausingEuropeanmanufacturerstoseekgreaterefficiencyimprovementsandcostsavingsmeasures.ManyEuropeanmanufacturersareconcentratingoninternaloperationstoimprovetheirfinancialperformanceandcashflowgenerationover2023.167。 ThedivergenttaxingsystemscurrentlyinplaceacrossE