【正文】
urnal of Business 1991,.64,119.[10] Diba,B. and H. Grossman,Rational Inflationary Bubbles,Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 21,3546.[11] Diba,B. and H. Grossman,The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock prices, economics, economic journal, 1988, 98,746754.[12] Fama,E,Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of finance,1970,25,383417.[13] Froot,K. and M. Obsetfld, Exchangerate Dynamics under stochastic Regime Shitfs: A Unified Approach,Journal of international Economics,1991, 31,203229.[14] Froot,K. and M. Obstfeld,Intrinsic Bubble: The Case of Stock Price,American economic Review,1991, 81,11891214.[15] Genotte,G. and H. Leland,Market Liquidity,Hedging and Cashes,American Economic Review, 1990,80,9991021.[16] Gourieroux,C. J. Laffont and A. Monfort, Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions,Econometrica,1982,50,409425.[17] Grinblatt,M.,and B. Han.,Prospect Theory,Mental Accounting and Momentum [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2005,78,311399.[18] Grossman,Gene M. ,and Yanagawa,Noriyuki, Asset bubbles and endogenous growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993, 31,319.[19] Jos233。 A. Scheinkman and Wei Xiong Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles, the Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 111, 11831220.[20] Krugman,P.,Bubble,Boom,Crash: Theoretical Notes on Asia’s Crisis Mimeo, 1998.[21] Lux,T., Herd Behavior,Bubbles and Crashes,The Economic Journal,1995,105,881896.[22] Marsh,T. and R. Merton,Dividend、variability and variance Vounds Tests for the Rationality of stock market Prices,American economic Review,1986, 76,4349.[23] Max Kummerow,A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply,JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE RESEARCH,1999,18,233255[24] McKinnon, Ronald I. and Huw Pill, 1998, International overborrowing: a deposition of credit and currency risk. World Development, 1998, 26, 12671282.[25] McQueen,G. and Steven Thorley, Bubbles,Stock returns,and Duration Dependence, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1994, 29: 379401.[26] Samuelson,P.,proof that properly Anticipated prices Fluctuate Randomly. Industrial Management Review1965, 6,4149.[27] Shiller,R.,Stock prices and Social Dynamics,Brooking papers on Economic Activity,1984,2,457510.[28] Shiller,., Irrational Exuberance,Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000.[29] Shiller,.,1984,Stock Price and Social Dynamics,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1984, 2,457498.[30] Tiorle,J. , on the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations,Econometrica,1982, 50,11631151.[31] Tirole,J.,Asset Bubbles and overlapping Generations,Economertica,1985, 53,10711100.[32] Weil,Philippe,Confidence and the Real value of Money in a Overlapping Generation economy,Quarterly Journal of Economics,1987, 102,122.16 / 16