【正文】 諸階段的途徑。 Widespread access to information technologies, for example, promises to condense the time required to change from laborintensive assembly work to industries that involve engineering, marketing, and design. 例如，信息技術的廣泛應用有望縮短勞動密集型的組裝工業(yè)轉向涉及工程、營銷和設計的那些產(chǎn)業(yè)所需的時間。 Modern munications will give countries like China and Vietnam a huge advantage over countries stuck with old technology.現(xiàn)代通信技術“將使中國、越南這樣的國家比那些困于舊技術的國家擁有巨大的優(yōu)勢”。 How fast these nations should push ahead is a matter of debate. 這些國家應以多快的速度向前發(fā)展是人們爭論的一個問題。 Many experts think Vietnam is going too far by requiring that all mobile phones be expensive digital models, when it is desperate for any phones, period. 許多專家認為，越南在目前急需電話的情況下，卻要求所有的移動電話都必須是昂貴的數(shù)字型電話，這種做法太超前了。 These countries lack experience in weighing costs and choosing between technologies, says one expert.一位專家說：“這些國家缺乏成本估算和選擇技術的經(jīng)驗?！?Still, there39。s little dispute that munications will be a key factor separating the winners from the losers. 然而毋庸爭辯，通信技術將是區(qū)分輸贏的關鍵因素。 Consider Russia. 看一看俄羅斯的情況吧。 Because of its strong educational system in mathematics and science, it should thrive in the Information Age.由于其堅實的數(shù)學和科學教育基礎，它應該在信息時代有繁榮的發(fā)展。 The problem is its national phone system is a rusting antique that dates from the l930s. 問題是，它的國內(nèi)電話系統(tǒng)是一堆生銹的20世紀30年代的老古董。 To lick this problem, Russia is starting to install optical fiber and has a strategic plan to pump $40 billion into various munications projects.為了解決這一問題，俄羅斯已經(jīng)開始鋪設光纖電纜，并制定了投入400億美元建設多項通信工程的戰(zhàn)略計劃。 But its economy is stuck in recession and it barely has the money to even scratch the surface of the problem.但是由于其經(jīng)濟陷于低迷，幾乎沒有資金來著手解決最基本的問題。 Compare that with the mainland of China. Over the next decade, it plans to pour some $100 billion into telemunications equipment. 與俄羅斯相比，在未來10年中，中國大陸計劃對通信設備投入1,000億美元。 In a way, China39。s backwardness is an advantage, because the expansion occurs just as new technologies are being cheaper than copper wire systems. 從某種意義上說，中國的落后成了一種有利因素，因為這一發(fā)展正好發(fā)生在新技術比銅線電纜系統(tǒng)更便宜的時候。 By the end of 1995, each of China39。s provincial capitals except for Lhasa will have digital switches and highcapacity optical fiber links. 到1995年底，中國除了拉薩以外的省會都將有數(shù)字轉換器和高容量的光纖網(wǎng)， This means that major cities are getting the basic infrastructure to bee major parts of the information superhighway, allowing people to log on to the most advanced services available.這意味著其主要城市正在具備必需的基礎設施，成為信息高速公路的主要部分，使人們能夠進入系統(tǒng)，獲得最先進的服務。 Telemunications is also a key to Shanghai39。s dream of being a top financial center. 電信工程也是上海實現(xiàn)其成為一流的金融中心這一夢想的關鍵。 To offer peak performance in providing the electronic data and paperless trading global investors expect, Shanghai plans telemunications networks as powerful as those in Manhattan.為了能給國際投資者提供其所期望的電子數(shù)據(jù)和無紙化交易方面的出色服務，上海計劃建設與曼哈頓同樣強大的電信網(wǎng)絡。 Meanwhile, Hungary also hopes to jump into the modern world. 與此同時，匈牙利也希望躍入現(xiàn)代世界。 Currently, 700,000 Hungarians are waiting for phones. 目前，有70萬匈牙利人等著裝電話。 To partially overe the problem of funds and to speed the import of Western technology, Hungary sold a 30% stake in its national phone pany to two Western panies.為了部分地解決資金問題，加速引進西方技術，匈牙利將國有電話公司30%的股份出售給了兩家西方公司。 To further reduce the waiting list for phones, Hungary has leased rights to a DutchScandinavian group of panies to build and operate what it says will be one of the most advanced digital mobile phone systems in the world.為進一步減少電話待裝戶，匈牙利已將權利出租給一家荷蘭－斯堪的納維亞企業(yè)集團，來建造并經(jīng)營一個據(jù)說位居世界先進行列的數(shù)字移動電話系統(tǒng)。 In fact, wireless is one of the most popular ways to get a phone system up fast in developing countries. 事實上，無線方式是在發(fā)展中國家快速建設電話系統(tǒng)的最受歡迎的方式之一。 It39。s cheaper to build radio towers than to string lines across mountain ridges, and businesses eager for reliable service are willing to accept a significantly higher price tag for a wireless call—the fee is typically two to four times as much as for calls made over fixed lines.建造無線電發(fā)射塔要比翻山越嶺架設線路更便宜。而且，急切盼望可靠服務的企業(yè)樂于花費可觀的高價來換取無線電話服務──其資費通常是固定線路電話資費的二至四倍。 Wireless demand and usage have also exploded across the entire width and breadth of Latin America. 整個拉丁美洲對無線通信的需求和使用已急速增長。 For wireless phone service providers, nowhere is business better than in Latin America—having an operation there is like having an endless pile of money at your disposal. 對于無線電話服務商來說，沒有任何地方的業(yè)務比拉丁美洲更好了──在那里有一個營運點就好像有一堆無窮無盡供你使用的鈔票。 BellSouth Corporation, with operations in four wireless markets, estimates its annual revenue per average customer at about $2,000 as pared to $860 in the United States. 在四個無線電話市場有營運點的貝爾南方電話公司估計，來自于其每個客戶的平均年收入均為2,000美元，而在美國僅為860美元。 That39。s partly because Latin American customers talk two to four times as long on the phone as people in North America.產(chǎn)生這種情況的部分原因是拉丁美洲客戶的通話時間是北美洲客戶的二至四倍。 Thailand is also turning to wireless, as a way to allow Thais to make better use of all the time they spend stuck in traffic. 泰國也在求助于無線通信方式，以便讓泰國人在發(fā)生交通堵塞時更好地利用時間。 And it isn39。t that easy to call or fax from the office: The waiting list for phone lines has from one to two million names on it. 而且在泰國，從辦公室往外打電話或發(fā)傳真并不那么容易：待裝電話的名單上有一二百萬個名字。 So mobile phones have bee the rage among businesspeople who can remain in contact despite the traffic jams.因此移動電話在商務人士中成為時尚，他們在交通堵塞時也能與外界保持聯(lián)系。 Vietnam is making one of the boldest leaps. 越南正在做一個最大膽的跳躍。 Despite a per person ine of just $220 a year, all of the 300,000 lines Vietnam plans to add annually will be optical fiber with digital switching, rather than cheaper systems that send electrons over copper wires. 盡管越南人均年收入只有220美元，它計劃每年增加的30萬條線路將全部為有數(shù)字轉換功能的光纖電纜，而不是那些以銅線傳送電子信號的廉價系統(tǒng)。 By going for nextgeneration technology now, Vietnamese telemunications officials say they39。ll be able to keep pace with anyone in Asia for decades.由于現(xiàn)在就選用了