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y just paid a $1 dividend and dividends are expected to grow at 5% per year. What is the required return? – R = [1()/] + .05 = 15% ? What is the dividend yield? – 1() / = 10% ? What is the capital gains yield? – g =5% Estimating Dividend Growth Rates g R O E b? ?? g = growth rate in dividends ? ROE = Return on Equity for the firm ? b = plowback or retention percentage rate – (1 dividend payout percentage rate) Growth Opportunities model ? We can depose firm value into two parts ? From this model, we can see the firm value will increase only when – the firm use retained earning to invest – The firm invest in positive NPV projects 0E PSV N PV G Or??Example Sarro Shipping, Inc., expects to earn $1 million per year in perpetuity if it undertakes no new investment opportunities. There are 100000 shares of stock outstanding. The firm will have an opportunity at date 1 to spend $1000000 in a new market campaign. The new project will increase earnings in every subsequent period by $210,000. The firm’s discount rate is 10%. What is the value per share before and after deciding to accept the marketing campaign? The NPVGO model ? Using the NPVGO model, you need to calculate – The present value of a single growth opportunity – The present value of all growth opportunities – The stock value without any growth opportunities – Add the firm value without growth opportunities to the present value of all growth opportunities – The value is the same as that calculated by DDM (dividend discount model) DDM vs NPVGOexample ? Cumberland Book Publishers has EPS of $10 at the end of the first year, a dividend payout ratio of 40%, a discount rate of 16% and a return on its retained earnings of 20%. Because the firm retains some of its earning each year, it is selecting growth opportunities each year. We wish to calculate the price per share using both DDM and NPVGO model Examplecont ? The NPVGO model – NPV per share of a single growth opportunity at Date 1 (6+) – NPV per share generated from investment at Date 2: +– NPV per share generated from investment at Date 3 +– NPVGO – NPV per share without growth opportunity 10/= – Total NPV +=100 2231 .5 1 .5 *1 .12 1 .5 *1 .12 1 .5... 37 .51 .16 1 .16 1 .16 0 .16 0 .12? ? ? ? ??P/E, growth, and retention ratio ? P/E Ratios are a function of two factors – Required Rates of Return (k) – Expected growth in Dividends ? Uses – Relative valuation – Extensive Use in industry P/E, growth, and retention ratio PDk gE bk b R O EPEbk b R O E01 10111????? ???? ?( )( )( )b = retention ration ROE = Return on Equit