【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 %，可能性亦變?yōu)樵档?88%。 ? The reduction of fire occurrence from to % is 12 %. The corresponding residual multiplication factor of the inherent probability value by restricting smoking material is therefore , which is shown in Table . ? NFPA statistics also show that, based on 1989–1998 data, the reduction in deaths in one and two family dwellings with sprinklers is 51% when pared with similar dwellings without sprinklers (Kimberly and Hall, 2023). ? The corresponding residual multiplication factor of the inherent consequence value by installing sprinklers is therefore , which is shown in Table . ? NFPA 的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，基于 1989–1998 的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，單個住戶或兩個住戶，具備自動噴水滅火系統(tǒng)的的民居，比不具備自動噴水滅火系統(tǒng)的類似的民居相比，火災(zāi)造成的死亡人數(shù)減少了51%(Kimberly and Hall, 2023)。 ? 因此相應(yīng)的安裝自動噴水滅火系統(tǒng)的火災(zāi)后果固有嚴(yán)重程度殘余乘法因子的值為 ，如表 。 ? The corresponding residual multiplication factor of the inherent consequence value by installing sprinklers is therefore , which is shown in Table . ? With regard to the benefits of implementing regular evacuation drills, there is no information on the reduction of death rates that is easily available. ? For this example, we have to make an assumption. ? We know that if regular evacuation drills are carried out, there will be faster evacuations and therefore lower death rates. For this example, let us assume a reduction of the death rate by 60 %. ? 至于進(jìn)行常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)的好處，沒有可用的死亡人數(shù)縮減比率的數(shù)據(jù)可用。 ? 我們知道如果實(shí)施常規(guī)的疏散演習(xí)，疏散會更快，從而降低死亡率。在本例中，我們只得對此進(jìn)行假設(shè)，主觀認(rèn)為減少了 60%的死亡人數(shù)。 ? 因此相應(yīng)的實(shí)施常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)的火災(zāi)后果固有嚴(yán)重程度殘余乘法因子的值為 ，如表 。 ? The residual multiplication factor of the inherent consequence value by implementing regular evacuation drills is therefore . ? 在實(shí)際的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估中，主觀假定的量，需要在火災(zāi)安全工程師、審批監(jiān)督人員以及甲方之間，就此達(dá)成一致。 ? Table also shows that the impacts on the consequence of installing sprinklers and of implementing regular evacuation drills are multiplied together. That is, the benefits of sprinklers and of regular evacuation drills have a bined residual consequence factor of or . ? 表 ，將安裝自噴系統(tǒng)和實(shí)施常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)對火災(zāi)后果嚴(yán)重程度的影響相乘，作為二者同時存在時對火災(zāi)后果嚴(yán)重程度的影響。即聯(lián)合嚴(yán)重程度殘余乘法因子 (bined residual consequence factor )的值為 : ≈ ? 此做法是基于這樣的考慮：每一種火災(zāi)安全措施接續(xù)地以一定的比率縮減火災(zāi)致死率，比如自噴系統(tǒng)降低了火災(zāi)后果的嚴(yán)重程度，在此基礎(chǔ)上，疏散演習(xí)使人員疏散速度加快，又進(jìn)一步降低了火災(zāi)后果的嚴(yán)重程度。 ? The multiplication of the residual factors is based on the argument that each fire protection measure reduces the residual death rate by a certain percentage in succession. ? The death rate is first reduced by the sprinklers suppressing the severity of the fires, and then further reduced by faster evacuation of the occupants. ? The reduction of the risk values of the six binations of additional fire protection measures is shown in Table . ? The residual risk multiplication factors range from to . ? The quantification of the risk values allows numerical parisons of the various fire protection options. ? This is not the case in qualitative fire risk assessment (Table in Chapter 4). ? 。殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)乘法因子 (The residual risk multiplication factors)變化范圍從 － 。 ? 不同的殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)乘法因子結(jié)果的比較為各種火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)方案的選擇提供了依據(jù)，這在定性評估中是無法進(jìn)行的 (第 4章，表 )。 江老師注解－優(yōu)化火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)的考量 ? 提出設(shè)計(jì)安全目標(biāo)和限制條件，比如經(jīng)濟(jì)上的或建筑結(jié)構(gòu)功能上的限制要求； ? 之后要明確現(xiàn)在條件下或不同火災(zāi)安全方案降低火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的效果； ? 考量不同火災(zāi)安全方案的一次性經(jīng)濟(jì)投入和長期經(jīng)濟(jì)投入，方案的實(shí)際可行性，技術(shù)措施的可維護(hù)性等； ? 做出選擇，確定火災(zāi)安全設(shè)計(jì)方案 ? It should be emphasized again that the values in Table are selected as an example to show how such a checklist method can be carried out. These values were selected from available statistical information without much indepth search. ? As more statistical information bees available, more extensive search and detailed analysis are needed to find the correct values. ? In actual fire risk assessments, these values need to be carefully selected and agreed upon by stakeholders. ? 表 災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。此例中采用的數(shù)據(jù)，來自于可查到的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)信息，但對其符合實(shí)際情況的程度，并未進(jìn)行深入的分析和探究。 ? 當(dāng)火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的實(shí)施者能夠獲取更多的火災(zāi)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的時候，就需要對數(shù)據(jù)信息進(jìn)行更廣泛、深入的分析，來確定哪些數(shù)據(jù)信息是適用的。 ? 在實(shí)際的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估過程中，相關(guān)人員要對數(shù)據(jù)來源，對采用的數(shù)據(jù)達(dá)成一致。 ? In actual fire risk assessments, these values need to be carefully selected and agreed upon by stakeholders. ? Subjective judgment of the probabilities and consequences provides a quick assessment of the potential fire risks. ? More fundamental and rational approaches to quantification, including the use of mathematical modeling of fire development and occupant evacuation, will be discussed in later chapters. 事件樹方法 ——EventTree Method ? 事件樹是另一種辨識火災(zāi)危害，確定其出現(xiàn)的可能性和后果嚴(yán)重程度，最終得到火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的方法。 ? 與檢查表方法不同，事件樹不僅列出一系列潛在的火災(zāi)危害，火災(zāi)安全措施，火災(zāi)危害出現(xiàn)的可能性和后果嚴(yán)重程度，以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值；從某一初始事件開始， 它還能夠構(gòu)建一系列的火災(zāi)場景，并顯示出火災(zāi)場景發(fā)生的邏輯過程。 ? EventTree Method ? An event tree is another way to identify potential fire hazards, assess their probabilities and consequences, and arrive at risk values. Different from the checklist method, an event tree shows more than a list of potential fire hazards and fire protection measures for the assessment of the probabilities, consequences and eventually the risk values. ? The eventtree method involves the construction of an event tree of various fire scenarios subsequent to the initiation of a fire hazard, as described in Chapter 2. The fire scenarios provide more logical information for the judgment of probability, consequence and risk values ? An example of an eventtree method employing quantitative fire risk assessment is shown in Figure . This is the same example that was used in Chapter 4, except that quantitative assessment is employed rather than qualitative assessment. ? 圖 例子，此例與第 4章中給出的例子相似，但在此進(jìn)行的是定量的評估，而非定性的評估。 某一種火源出現(xiàn) A type of Fire source flame retardant material ? Figure An example of an eventtree method for the assessment of probability, consequence and residual risk values for the various fire scenarios in an apartment building. 圖 可能性、后果嚴(yán)重程度及殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的例子 江老師注解：初始事件為某一種火源出現(xiàn)并做用于可燃材料，總的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還應(yīng)該考察火源出現(xiàn)