【正文】 ‘regular evacuation drills’ plan is 80 %. ? 類似的對(duì)公寓建筑中成功 /或失敗地實(shí)施了“常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)”的可能性，也沒(méi)有容易找到的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。 plan) (failure probability of ‘sprinkler system’) (failure probability of implementing a ‘regular evacuation drills’ plan). ? In the eventtree method, the probability of fire occurrence for each fire scenario is assessed based on the inherent rate of fire occurrence and the impact of various fire prevention measures to minimize this inherent rate of fire occurrence. In Figure , the impact of each of the fire protection measures on the inherent rate of fire occurrence is assessed using a residual probability multiplier. ? 在事件樹(shù)方法中，每一個(gè)火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景出現(xiàn)的可能性基于火災(zāi)發(fā)生的固有頻率和各種火災(zāi)安全措施對(duì)降低火災(zāi)發(fā)生固有頻率的影響來(lái)確定。 whereas Scenario E, F, G, H, all with a success of implementing the ‘no smoking material’ plan, have a residual probability multiplier of . ? 每一個(gè)火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景的這個(gè)殘余可能性因子在圖 顯示出來(lái)。 ? 如果沒(méi)有統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)可用，則需要進(jìn)行主觀判斷。 ? 每個(gè)火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景可能性的值是與此場(chǎng)景相關(guān)的火災(zāi)安全措施成功或失敗的所有分支可能性的乘積。 ? This allows the fire protection engineers and regulators to assess the impact of these fire protection measures based on their assessments of the reduction of the consequence. Some of these residual consequence multipliers can be obtained from statistics, if they are available. ? For example, NFPA statistics show that, based on the 1989–1998 data, the reduction in deaths in apartment buildings with sprinklers is 81% when pared with similar buildings without sprinklers (Kimberly and Hall, 2023). The residual consequence multiplier of a sprinkler system therefore is . ? That is, the consequence of installing a sprinkler system is the reduction of the death rate per fire to of its inherent value. ? 例如 NFPA統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，基于 1989–1998的數(shù)據(jù)，公寓建筑有自噴系統(tǒng)的建筑與類似沒(méi)有自噴系統(tǒng)的建筑比較，火災(zāi)死亡率降低了 81%(Kimberly and Hall, 2023)，這樣自噴系統(tǒng)的殘余后果因子為。即在“在公寓中使用阻燃材料”成功，其結(jié)果是將火災(zāi)發(fā)生的頻率下降到其固有頻率的。例如 Scenario A 的可能性為 10?03, 這是 (公寓中使用阻燃材料失敗的可能性 ) (自噴系統(tǒng)失敗的可能性 ) (實(shí)施常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)失敗的可能性 )，三者的乘積。例如對(duì)在“公寓中使用阻燃材料”的可能性 (從而對(duì)火災(zāi)發(fā)生可能性造成影響 )的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，不容易找到，我們只得對(duì)此進(jìn)行假設(shè)。 ? A typical apartment building usually has some fire protection measures, such as fire resistant construction and fire alarms. Additional fire protection measures would lower the risk further. This example considers the same six different binations of three additional fire protection measures which were considered in the checklist method in Section . ? The three additional fire protection measures are: ? (1) no smoking material (such as cigarettes) in the apartments, ? (2) sprinklers and ? (3) regular evacuation drills. ? Each of the three fire protection measures has an impact on either the probability of fire occurrence or the consequence of a fire occurrence. 這三種額外的火災(zāi)安全措施為： ? (1) 公寓中使用阻燃材料－ flame retardant material in the apartments； ? (2) 自動(dòng)噴水滅火系統(tǒng)－ sprinklers； ? (3) 常規(guī)疏散演習(xí)－ regular evacuation drills. ? 每一種火災(zāi)安全措施都可能對(duì)火災(zāi)發(fā)生的可能性或火災(zāi)后果的嚴(yán)重程度產(chǎn)生影響。 ? 與檢查表方法不同，事件樹(shù)不僅列出一系列潛在的火災(zāi)危害，火災(zāi)安全措施，火災(zāi)危害出現(xiàn)的可能性和后果嚴(yán)重程度，以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值；從某一初始事件開(kāi)始， 它還能夠構(gòu)建一系列的火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景，并顯示出火災(zāi)場(chǎng)景發(fā)生的邏輯過(guò)程。 ? The multiplication of the residual factors is based on the argument that each fire protection measure reduces the residual death rate by a certain percentage in succession. ? The death rate is first reduced by the sprinklers suppressing the severity of the fires, and then further reduced by faster evacuation of the occupants. ? The reduction of the risk values of the six binations of additional fire protection measures is shown in Table . ? The residual risk multiplication factors range from to . ? The quantification of the risk values allows numerical parisons of the various fire protection options. ? This is not the case in qualitative fire risk assessment (Table in Chapter 4). ? 。 ? 因此相應(yīng)的安裝自動(dòng)噴水滅火系統(tǒng)的火災(zāi)后果固有嚴(yán)重程度殘余乘法因子的值為 ，如表 。 ? 這樣 7% 14%≈ % 的家庭火災(zāi)是在主起居室由吸煙引起的。 ? 某些機(jī)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中可能會(huì)收集這樣的數(shù)據(jù)信息，但在其公布的報(bào)告中未必直接能夠獲取，因?yàn)檫@些數(shù)據(jù)報(bào)告中通常顯示的是比較基本的數(shù)據(jù)信息；而對(duì)火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估所需要的很專門的數(shù)據(jù)信息，則往往沒(méi)有直接列出。 ? In Table , the inherent fire risk values (without the help of any fire protection measures) were obtained previously in Chapter 3. Table in Chapter 3 shows that the probability of fire occurrence in Canadian houses was 10?3 fires/house/year in 1996 and the percentage of these house fires that occurred in the main living area was %. ? 表 ，固有的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值 (inherent fire risk values ——沒(méi)有任何火災(zāi)安全措施起到幫助作用的情況 )是從之前第 3章表 。 ? A typical house usually has some fire protection measures, such as smoke alarms. Additional fire protection measures would lower the risk further. Similar to the example in Chapter 4, this example considers six different binations of three additional fire protection measures. ? 一個(gè)典型的住宅建筑中通常有一些火災(zāi)安全措施，比如感煙報(bào)警系統(tǒng)。 ? 這種方法對(duì)火災(zāi)事件的邏輯發(fā)展過(guò)程 (logical development of fire events)是不加以考慮的，對(duì)此在 。 ? （ potential fire scenarios）并量化其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 ? The overall fire risk value can be used for parisons with those of alternative or codepliant fire safety designs. ? 通常有兩種方式進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的定量化的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估： ? 1. 安全檢察表方法，詳盡考察一系列的潛在火災(zāi)危害（ potential fire hazards）及量化其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)； by using a checklist to go through a list of and the quantitative assessment of their fire risks。 ? 它被用來(lái)辨識(shí)所存在的任何不足的方面和確定將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低到最小所需要的補(bǔ)救措施。 ? 一個(gè)全面的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估應(yīng)包括對(duì)所有潛在火災(zāi)危害的辨識(shí)以及采取火災(zāi)安全措施降低其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況。當(dāng)然，在火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估中，并沒(méi)有嚴(yán)格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的安全檢查表方法。 ? 對(duì)火災(zāi)安全措施的作用，一種方法是基于統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)確定；但這樣的數(shù)據(jù)不一定總能找得到。 ? For example, there is some statistical information on the benefits of restricting smoking material and of installing sprinklers, but not much information on the benefits of implementing regular evacuation drills. ? NFPA statistics show that approximately 7% of fires in homes are caused by smoking materials (NFPA Fire Statistics, 2023) and approximately 14%of these fires occur in the main living area (Hall, 2023). ? Therefore, 7 14% or approximately % of fires in homes are fires that both originate in the main living area and are caus