北大光華組織與管理week9-決策(編輯修改稿)
2025-03-08 14:15 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 velsupervisors169。 Jianjun ZhangTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisions LevelinOrganizationTopLowerWellstructuredIllstructuredTypeofProblem169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)DecisionMakingConditions– Certaintyouteofeveryalternativeisknown? idealisticratherthanrealistic– Riskabletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutesstemmingfromeachalternative? expected valuetheconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoute–multiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutebytheprobabilityofeachoute169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLiftJianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)DecisionMakingConditions(cont.)– Uncertaintynotcertainaboutoutesandunabletoestimateprobabilities? psychologicalorientationofdecisionmaker–maximaxchoiceoptimistic187。maximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff（大中取大）–maximinchoicepessimistic187。maximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff（小中取大）–minimaxminimizethemaximum“regret”（大中取?。?69。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangPayoffMatrix169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangRegretMatrix169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)BoundedRationality–behaverationallywithintheparametersofasimplifieddecisionmakingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation–satisficeacceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough”–escalation of mitmentincreasedmitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong?refusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangEscalationofCommitmentDecisiontoBeginaprojectaction Negativeresults Threattoego Decisiontopersist NegativeresultsThreattoegoSunkcostPressurefromOutsidepartiesDecisiontopersistSource:Staw,1976and1997169。 Jianjun ZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)DecisionMakingStyles– twodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmaking? way of thinkingdiffersfromrationaltointuitive? tolerance for ambiguitydiffersfromaneedforconsistencyandordertotheabilitytoprocessmanythoughtssimultaneously– definefourdecisionmakingstyles? Directivefast,efficient,andlogical? Analyticcarefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituations? Conceptualabletofindcreativesolutions? Behavioralseekacceptanceofdecisions169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangDecisionMakingStylesAnalyticDirective BehavioralRational IntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity169。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun Zhang常見的認(rèn)知陷阱錨定陷阱現(xiàn)狀陷阱沉默成本陷阱可靠證據(jù)陷阱表述陷阱估計(jì)與預(yù)測陷阱：過于自信和過于謹(jǐn)慎的陷阱，易回顧性事件陷阱169。 Jianjun Zhang錨定（定準(zhǔn)，支架）陷阱 人口多少 ？169。 Jianjun Zhang現(xiàn)狀陷阱 四輪馬車第一輛汽車169。 Jianjun Zhang現(xiàn)狀陷阱?舒服的現(xiàn)狀?賴床與溫水青蛙 —— 積
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