sars對中國物流影響研究報(bào)告(sarsandchinalogistics)(編輯修改稿)
2024-09-10 21:19 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 ecast is published in the Asian Development Outlook 2003 (ADO), an annual publication of ADB, which analyzes economic trends in the region. The ADO forecasts gross domestic product growth at % in 2004.In 2003, besides SARS, the economy will face downward pressure as a result of the negative effects of the Iraq war on external demand, and a general slowdown in the world economy.If the world economy experiences a modest recovery, domestic private sector investment gathers momentum, and rural ines rise moderately, the economy will maintain its high growth in 2004, says the ADO.This follows the strong economic performance in 2002 when the economy grew by 8%. In 2002, exports grew faster than expected, with record levels of foreign direct investment, and buoyant domestic demand.As PRC39。s suppliers from around the world, particularly Asia, exploit opportunities in PRC39。s rapidly growing domestic market, imports are expected to exceed that of exports, resulting in a smaller trade surplus. Imports will likely increase by 12% in 2003 and % in 2004 after a 21% expansion in 2002.Substantial inflows of foreign direct investment will partly offset a decline in the current account surplus resulting from the deteriorating trade balance. The current account surplus will likely be % of GDP in 2003 over % in 2002.The ADO says the growing fiscal deficit will limit the continued use of fiscal stimulus packages. However, potential fiscal risks will accumulate as the PRC contemplates another bank bailout and seeks ways to fund its fledgling pension system.Although affected by the spread of SARS, domestic consumption will remain robust. The economy will continue to face deflationary pressure in 2003 because of large excess capacity in many industries and cheap imports related to World Trade Organization (WTO) trade liberalization.Challenges the PRC faces include:? Creating a sufficient number of jobs to employ new market entrants, including laidoff SOE (stateowned enterprise) workers and surplus rural labor. ? Creating a better environment for the private sector, which is PRC39。s engine of job creation, by improving the legal framework and judicial system。 honoring contracts。 eliminating fake products and protecting intellectual property rights。 eliminating barriers to fair petition。 reducing corruption and setting better accounting and auditing standards. ? Reducing ine inequalities between the coastal and the poorer interior provinces and between rural and urban areas and reducing poverty. Successfully addressing poverty and inequality is essential to maintain broadbased public support for the reform program. ? Addressing vulnerabilities in the financial system. The large volume of nonperforming loans and a poorly performing banking system have hindered the development of an efficient nationwide financial system and imposed large costs on the economy. The private sector and rural sector have difficulty accessing financial resources. 003 Conclusions:SARS has caused serious disruption to shortterm economic growth. Its longterm impact largely depends on whether governments can speedily implement effective public health policies. Given theexternalities related to contagious diseases, governments need to play a major role in preventing and containing diseases, and in generating research outes to facilitate rapid and effectivediagnosis and treatment. (i) The accurate, timely, and transparent provision of information on the nature and extent of diseases bygovernments is critical for educating the p
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