【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 phet and is best used together with available evidence. When witnesses are called to testify in a court trial, the confidence in their testimony is measured along with and against the evidence at hand.與“確定性偏差”相類似的是“過度自信偏差”。在一個(gè)理想的世界，當(dāng)我們百分之百地確信某件事時(shí)，我們就百分之百地正確；當(dāng)我們百分之八十地確信某件事時(shí)，我們就百分之八十地正確，以此類推。但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，人們的信心卻大大超過了其判斷的準(zhǔn)確度。在一個(gè)人缺乏直接證據(jù)而必須要作出某種猜測的情況下，這一偏差就最有可能起作用，比如，估計(jì)一個(gè)擁擠的購物廣場有多少人，或下雨的可能性有多大。更糟糕的是，即使人們意識(shí)到自己有過度自信的偏差，他們還是會(huì)高估自己的正確率。光靠自信是無法進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測的，只有在切實(shí)證據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上，自信才能發(fā)揮最大的作用。當(dāng)法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時(shí)，對(duì)他們證詞的信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的。8 The availability bias is also related to errors in estimation, in that we tend to estimate what oute is more likely by how easily we can recount an example from memory. Since the retention and retrieval of memories is biased toward vivid, sensational, or emotionally charged examples, decisions based on them can often lead to strange, inaccurate conclusions.與估計(jì)失誤相關(guān)的還有“可得性偏差”，因?yàn)槲覀兂３?huì)憑借回憶某一例證的難易程度來推測哪種結(jié)果更可能出現(xiàn)。由于記憶的留存和重拾會(huì)因?yàn)槭录纳鷦?dòng)與否、震撼程度和情感觸動(dòng)程度的不同而產(chǎn)生偏差，那么，基于這些記憶所作出的決定也往往會(huì)是奇怪或不準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論。9 In action this bias might lead someone to cancel a trip to, for example, the Canary Islands because of a report that the biggest plane crash in history happened there. Likewise some people might stop going out at night for fear of assault or rape.在具體行為中，這種偏差可能會(huì)使某人取消比如前往加那利群島的行程，因?yàn)橛袌?bào)道說，史上最慘重的空難就發(fā)生在那里。同樣，人們也可能因懼怕遭到人身侵犯或者強(qiáng)暴而不敢再在晚上出門。10 Repelling the availability bias calls for an empirical approach to a particular decision, one not based on the obscured reality of vivid memory. If there is a low incidence of disaster, like only one out of 100,000 plane landings results in a crash, it is safe to fly to the Canary Islands. If one out of one million people who go out is assaulted, it is safe to go out at night.要排除“可得性偏差”，就必須在作某一具體決定時(shí)，以實(shí)證方法所取得的證據(jù)為依據(jù)，而不是以與現(xiàn)實(shí)不太相符的某個(gè)鮮明的記憶為依據(jù)。如果災(zāi)難的發(fā)生率很低，比如飛機(jī)著陸過程中墜毀的可能性只有十萬分之一，那么飛往加那利群島就仍是安全的。如果人們外出只有百萬分之一的幾率遭到人身侵犯，那么夜晚出行也就仍是安全的。11 The sunk cost fallacy has a periodic application and was first identified by economists. A good example of how it works is the casino slot machine. Gamblers with a high threshold for risk put money into a slot machine hoping for a big return, but with each pull of the lever they lose some money playing the odds. If they have been pulling the lever many times in a row without success, they might decide that they had better keep spending money at the machine, or they will have wasted everything they already put in.“沉沒成本謬誤”也時(shí)有發(fā)生，它最初是由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的。其作用機(jī)理最好的例證就是賭場老虎機(jī)。賭徒們冒著高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，把錢投入老虎機(jī)，期望能夠得到很大的回報(bào)，但隨著一次次拉動(dòng)拉桿，他們也一次次把錢賭輸了。如果他們多次連續(xù)拉動(dòng)拉桿而沒有一次成功，他們可能會(huì)決定最好還是繼續(xù)把錢投入老虎機(jī)，否則他們之前投入的成本就悉數(shù)浪費(fèi)了。12 The truth is that every pull of the lever has the same winning probability of nearly one in a trillion, regardless of how much money has been put in before — the previous plays were sunk costs.而事實(shí)是，不論他們之前投入了多少錢，每一次拉動(dòng)拉桿的成功幾率都同樣是極小的——之前投入的那些即為沉沒成本。13 In everyday life this can lead people to stay in damaging situations because of how much they have already put in, stuck on the erroneous belief that the value of that time or energy they have invested will decay or disappear if they leave. The wisest course is to recognize the effects of the sunk cost fallacy and to leave a bad situation regardless of how much you have already invested.在日常生活中，這種謬誤會(huì)導(dǎo)致人們由于顧及之前所投入的成本，而持續(xù)停留在損失的狀態(tài)中，同時(shí)困頓于一種錯(cuò)誤的觀念，即他們害怕自己一旦離開，之前所投入的時(shí)間和精力就會(huì)貶值或付諸東流。而最明智的辦法則是，要充分認(rèn)識(shí)沉沒成本謬誤導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果，離開糟糕的境況，不論之前已投入了多少。14 While there are still more biases, the key to avoiding them remains the same: When a decision matters, it is best to rely on watertight logic and a careful examination of the evidence and to remain aware that what seems like good intuition is always subject to errors of judgment.盡管還有其他更多的偏差，避免這些偏差的關(guān)鍵其實(shí)都一樣：當(dāng)涉及重要決策時(shí)，最好是依靠嚴(yán)密的邏輯并仔細(xì)審查證據(jù)；同時(shí)，要保持警惕，那些看上去良好的直覺總是很容易導(dǎo)致判斷失誤。unit 2 TextAThe confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的對(duì)美的追求1 If you39。re a man, at some point a woman will ask you how she looks.如果你是一位男士，肯定在某個(gè)時(shí)候會(huì)有女士問你她看起來怎么樣。2 You must be careful how you answer this question. The best technique is to form an honest yet sensitive response, then promptly excuse yourself for some kind of emergency. Trust me, this is the easiest way out. No amount of rehearsal will help you e up with the right answer.對(duì)于如何應(yīng)對(duì)這個(gè)問題，你一定得小心。最好的對(duì)策就是給一個(gè)誠實(shí)但又謹(jǐn)慎的回答，然后借口有急事馬上脫身。相信我，這是最簡單的方法。對(duì)于她的這一問題，無論你事先練習(xí)多少次，都不會(huì)找到正確答案。3 The problem is that men do not think of their looks in the same way women do. Most men form an opinion of themselves in seventh grade and stick to it for the rest of their lives. Some men think they39。re irresistibly desirable, and they refuse to change this opinion even when they grow bald and their faces visibly wrinkle as they age.其原因是，男性和女性對(duì)外表的看法截然不同。大多數(shù)男性對(duì)自己外表的評(píng)價(jià)在七年級(jí)時(shí)就形成了，而且終生不變。有些男性認(rèn)為自己有不可抗拒的魅力，即使隨著年齡的增長，他們頭發(fā)掉光了，臉上布滿皺紋，他們?nèi)匀痪芙^改變這種看法。4 Most men, I believe, are not arrogant about their looks. If the transient thought passes through their minds at all, they like to think of themselves as averagelooking. Being average doesn39。t bother them。 average is fine. They don39。t affix much value to their looks, or think of them in terms of aesthetics. Their primary form of beauty care is to shave themselves, which is essentially the same care they give to their lawns. If, at the end of his four minute allotment of time for grooming, a man has managed to wipe most of the shaving cream out of the strands of his hair and isn39。t bleeding too badly, he feels he39。s done all he can.我相信，大多數(shù)男性都不會(huì)對(duì)自己的相貌感到過分自傲。如果他們偶爾想到自己外表的話，他們?cè)敢庹J(rèn)為自己樣貌中等。長相普通不會(huì)使他們有任何煩惱，因?yàn)槠胀ň鸵呀?jīng)是很好了。男性不是特別注重自己的外貌，也不會(huì)從美學(xué)的角度去審視自己。他們的打扮方式主要就是刮刮胡子，就像打理自家草坪一樣。對(duì)于一位男性來說，如果能花四分鐘刮刮胡子，結(jié)束之后再把粘到頭發(fā)上的剃須膏擦凈，又沒有出血太厲害，他就覺得自己已經(jīng)盡心盡力了。5 Women do not look at themselves this way. If I had to guess what most women think about their appearance, it would be: Not good enough. No matter how attractive a woman may be, her perception of herself is eclipsed by the beauty industry. She has trouble thinking I39。m beautiful. She magnifies the smallest imperfections in her body and imagines them as glaring flaws the whole world will notice and ridicule.女性可不是這樣看待自己的。如果非要我猜測大多數(shù)