北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-文庫(kù)吧在線(xiàn)文庫(kù)
【正文】 arningthepervasiveperfectlymaking– ExplaindecisionmakingthetwosolveandofmembersdecisionsFunctions169。toofAlternativesSelectionstatepressuresituationnecessarywhat’scriteriadecision– Step 4 Developing Alternatives? listproblemtheNotebook Jianjun ZhangEvaluationWeights169。alternativedecisiontheirpeopleitisProcessproblem,search,evaluationchoiceAuthorizationinspeedupsprehensivedecisionsearchprocessesdynamicDecisionconstraints– managersmakeramaximizesinseldomJianjun Zhang有限理性環(huán)境復(fù)雜，模糊、不一致信息；不完備、不對(duì)稱(chēng)信息人們解釋不同 (經(jīng)歷經(jīng)驗(yàn)、身份角色、利益，等）私有利益（組織作為政治聯(lián)合體）時(shí)間壓力注意力分配169。ofeasilytheefficiency? proceduretostatementdo? policyJianjun Zhang169。ofproblemscustommadethenonprogrammedoffrommakerLowerlevelDecisions,Jianjun Zhang169。Conditions– CertaintyratherprobabilitytherevenueeachtheAsnotprobabilities? psychologicalmaximizing187。theMatrix169。Rationality–behavedecisionmakingabilityarepreviousbeenmaytoto1976Makerdecisionordersimultaneously– definelogical? Analyticcopecreative Jianjun ZhangDecisionMaking Jianjun Zhang錨定（定準(zhǔn)，支架）陷阱 人口多少 ？169。從哪里 你公司的三艘貨運(yùn)船昨天沉船，每艘船上有價(jià)值 20萬(wàn)的貨物，如若不能在72小時(shí)內(nèi)打撈，貨物將全部報(bào)廢。實(shí)驗(yàn)中 80%的人選擇四169。 Jianjun Zhang卡內(nèi)基模型下的決策過(guò)程不確定性信息有限管理者之間持有不同的目標(biāo)、看法、價(jià)值觀(guān)及經(jīng)驗(yàn)充分溝通4.Effectiveness Groups Jianjun Zhang群體決策的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)優(yōu)點(diǎn)：－－集思廣益－－互補(bǔ)－－開(kāi)放－－有效性－－穩(wěn)妥性和效率缺點(diǎn)－－反應(yīng)慢－－團(tuán)體偏移：妥協(xié)結(jié)果可能是保守或冒險(xiǎn)－－遵從壓力－－矛盾和對(duì)抗169。Model BoundedofalternativesOptimal壓制新的想法、Inquiry調(diào)查咨詢(xún)式鼓勵(lì)意見(jiàn)交換、peting見(jiàn)解本身力量的競(jìng)爭(zhēng) Jianjun Zhang兩個(gè)決策例子 — 古巴導(dǎo)彈危機(jī)自由討論兩種方案：封鎖或者空中打擊互相檢驗(yàn)對(duì)方方案KENNEDY最終拍板169。觀(guān)念上的、針對(duì)工作有不同看法而產(chǎn)生的沖突，健康的、有益的，對(duì) Inquiry至關(guān)重要 Jianjun Zhang一．建設(shè)性沖突?把辯論當(dāng)作常態(tài)而不是例外 169。Watchdog由 A組以書(shū)面和口頭的形式提交給 B組由 B組產(chǎn)生一個(gè)或多個(gè)備選的行動(dòng)計(jì)劃 。如果參與者相信過(guò)程公平，他們會(huì)非常樂(lè)意執(zhí)行這個(gè)決定，即使他們的觀(guān)點(diǎn)并沒(méi)有被真正的采納。而且，還要設(shè)法讓每一位參與者知道他們的意見(jiàn)如何影響了最終的決策，或者為什么決策有異于他們的建議。過(guò)早制定決策和過(guò)遲制定決策都非常有害。這種方式隨著 strong敵對(duì)兩方都不肯屈服，一遍遍的重申他們的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。團(tuán)隊(duì)成員堅(jiān)持聽(tīng)取每個(gè)觀(guān)點(diǎn)解決每個(gè)問(wèn)題，再得出結(jié)論。?需要決策者及時(shí)找出關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。Intuition–intuitive decision makingtherelytheIntuition?DecisionsvaluesorCanissuesissues,eventsexistchoicesbeingCasablanca,MakingDecisionMakingProcessTypes of Problems and Decisions? Wellstructured programmed? Poorly structured nonprogrammedDecisionMaking Conditions? Certainty? Risk? UncertaintyDecision Maker Style? Directive? Analytic? Conceptual? BehavioralDecisionMaking Approach? Rationality? Bounded Rationality? Intuition Decision? Choose best alternative maximizing satisficing? Implementing? Evaluating169。modelOverviewareproblemsproblemswhenforsituations,randomChoicesbasedonfeelingsrationalorandofDecision 終止 過(guò)早決策169。 Jianjun Zhang二 .考慮 /體諒在整個(gè)決策過(guò)程中，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都要注重 “consideration”的重要性。兩個(gè)組周而復(fù)始的進(jìn)行這種修改 批評(píng) 修改的環(huán)節(jié) ,直至他們會(huì)聚于共同的焦點(diǎn) 。由 A組提出一個(gè)計(jì)劃 ,包括建議 ,關(guān)鍵假設(shè) ,支持?jǐn)?shù)據(jù) 。?conflictCIA從自己部門(mén)利益出發(fā)力主入侵216。divisions得出多次檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)論本質(zhì)區(qū)別產(chǎn)生多種選擇、model NormativeanalysisBoundedDecisionboundedIndividual169。 Jianjun
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