北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-免費閱讀
【正文】 ManagerialUniversitiesPublicpersistdoanarchyContinuedStreamslookingfortrainingIntuitionAffectinitiateddecisionsExperiencedbased decisionsValues orethicsbaseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitivebaseddecisions169。basedonJianjun ZhangWhatanalysisjudgment?doesdecisions(cont.)Role Jianjun Zhang三 .在討論過程中，決策者必須作出一副積極傾聽和關(guān)注的姿態(tài)。 Jianjun Zhang二 .考慮 /體諒程序上的公平 — 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者做最終決策，但必須要讓過程中的參與者認(rèn)為他們的觀點已被考慮到并且影響了最終的決定。把團(tuán)隊分成兩組 。感情上的，包括個人摩擦、敵對，會削減人們的合作熱情，讓決策過程變得沒有效率，是 Advocacy的一種特征 ?終止169。弱化風(fēng)險、有選擇的匯報信息216。169。experienceSelectionrationality BoundedmodelAssumptionsofMakingCriteria Jianjun Zhang比較群體和個人決策 :三個臭皮匠頂?shù)牧酥T葛亮嗎？復(fù)雜問題 簡單問題2. 一艘，即挽救你20萬的貨物.方案二 這套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘總計 60萬的貨物；當(dāng)然有三分之二的概率什么都挽救不了.方案一如果你是風(fēng)險規(guī)避型，會選擇方案一。 Jianjun Zhang表述陷阱情境： Jianjun Zhang可靠證據(jù)陷阱169。Jianjun Zhang169。decisions169。toadaptefficient,manyconsistencytoapproachAtopersistSource:topersist NegativeofinitialmaytosolutionsanaMakerJianjun Zhang169。to(cont.)– Uncertainty Jianjun ZhangTheRevenuesprobabilityoute–multiplyalternative? expected valueestimateisMakerinOrganizationTopLowerWellstructuredIllstructuredTypeTypesdecisionsTypicalpoliciesConsiderabledecisionVariable Type of Decisionprogrammeddecisionsproblems? produceornew,Makerdecisionnotstepsdiscretion–facilitatestructuredfamiliar,MakerOfdecisiongoal–makealternativeawithinDecisiondesigndecisionprocesssimpledelayscauseevaluation,recognition,sequenceStimulus:IncrementalthefailprocessandconveyingtheCriteriaValuesevaluatedresolveinweight(cont.)– Step 2 Identifying Decision Criteria? decision criteriahascharacterizeita8stepAlternativeEvaluationofCriteriaAllocationthelotalternatives– all Jianjun Zhang 63169。certainty,usedandlearnintomaker– ContrastisstepsOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB169。insothedecisiontheto:–Identifythetorisk, Jianjun ZhangImportanceanizationalofManagementofWeightsDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisprocess– Step 1 Identifying a Problem? problemdesiredexertsaresourcesthethetheagainstof169。andbestthegettinginclinesifproblemDecisionopportunity,diagnosisDevelopment:bargainingchangeandimpasseprocessesmodifieddecisionMakerRationalspecifieddecisionproblem–havethatdecisionmakingRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblem isclear andunambiguousSingle, welldefined goalis to be achievedAll alternativesand consequencesare knownPreferencesare clearPreferencesare constantand stableNo time or costconstraints existFinal choicewill maximizepayoff169。(cont.)Typesandproblems–minimizeanizationalusedexplicittomaking169。(cont.)Typesunusualinplete– Nonprogrammed Decisionsainor Programmed NonprogrammedTypeguidancedecisionOfofProblem169。(cont.)DecisionMakingknown? idealistictheexpectedoffromManagerestimateoptimistic187。pessimisticminimi
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