北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-免費閱讀
【正文】 ManagerialUniversitiesPublicpersistdoanarchyContinuedStreamslookingfortrainingIntuitionAffectinitiateddecisionsExperiencedbased decisionsValues orethicsbaseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitivebaseddecisions169。basedonJianjun ZhangWhatanalysisjudgment?doesdecisions(cont.)Role Jianjun Zhang三 .在討論過程中，決策者必須作出一副積極傾聽和關注的姿態(tài)。 Jianjun Zhang二 .考慮 /體諒程序上的公平 — 領導者做最終決策，但必須要讓過程中的參與者認為他們的觀點已被考慮到并且影響了最終的決定。把團隊分成兩組 。感情上的，包括個人摩擦、敵對，會削減人們的合作熱情，讓決策過程變得沒有效率，是 Advocacy的一種特征 ?終止169。弱化風險、有選擇的匯報信息216。169。experienceSelectionrationality BoundedmodelAssumptionsofMakingCriteria Jianjun Zhang比較群體和個人決策 :三個臭皮匠頂?shù)牧酥T葛亮嗎？復雜問題 簡單問題2. 一艘，即挽救你20萬的貨物.方案二 這套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘總計 60萬的貨物；當然有三分之二的概率什么都挽救不了.方案一如果你是風險規(guī)避型，會選擇方案一。 Jianjun Zhang表述陷阱情境： Jianjun Zhang可靠證據(jù)陷阱169。Jianjun Zhang169。decisions169。toadaptefficient,manyconsistencytoapproachAtopersistSource:topersist NegativeofinitialmaytosolutionsanaMakerJianjun Zhang169。to(cont.)– Uncertainty Jianjun ZhangTheRevenuesprobabilityoute–multiplyalternative? expected valueestimateisMakerinOrganizationTopLowerWellstructuredIllstructuredTypeTypesdecisionsTypicalpoliciesConsiderabledecisionVariable Type of Decisionprogrammeddecisionsproblems? produceornew,Makerdecisionnotstepsdiscretion–facilitatestructuredfamiliar,MakerOfdecisiongoal–makealternativeawithinDecisiondesigndecisionprocesssimpledelayscauseevaluation,recognition,sequenceStimulus:IncrementalthefailprocessandconveyingtheCriteriaValuesevaluatedresolveinweight(cont.)– Step 2 Identifying Decision Criteria? decision criteriahascharacterizeita8stepAlternativeEvaluationofCriteriaAllocationthelotalternatives– all Jianjun Zhang 63169。certainty,usedandlearnintomaker– ContrastisstepsOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB169。insothedecisiontheto:–Identifythetorisk, Jianjun ZhangImportanceanizationalofManagementofWeightsDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisprocess– Step 1 Identifying a Problem? problemdesiredexertsaresourcesthethetheagainstof169。andbestthegettinginclinesifproblemDecisionopportunity,diagnosisDevelopment:bargainingchangeandimpasseprocessesmodifieddecisionMakerRationalspecifieddecisionproblem–havethatdecisionmakingRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblem isclear andunambiguousSingle, welldefined goalis to be achievedAll alternativesand consequencesare knownPreferencesare clearPreferencesare constantand stableNo time or costconstraints existFinal choicewill maximizepayoff169。(cont.)Typesandproblems–minimizeanizationalusedexplicittomaking169。(cont.)Typesunusualinplete– Nonprogrammed Decisionsainor Programmed NonprogrammedTypeguidancedecisionOfofProblem169。(cont.)DecisionMakingknown? idealistictheexpectedoffromManagerestimateoptimistic187。pessimisticminimi
教學課件相關推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號-1