北大光華組織與管理week9-決策-預(yù)覽頁
【正文】 kingCriteriaAllocationAlternativeEvaluationofanAlternative169。8stepbetweenaaffairs–mustitact–managercharacterizeahasactDecision(cont.)– Step 2 Identifying Decision Criteria? decision criteriainweightgiveinviableresolveevaluatingevaluatedMakingValuesAlternativesLaptopCriteriaMakingtheamongconveyingthoseandtoprocesssupportfailnotthe Jianjun ZhangDecisionIncrementalresearch:sequenceStimulus:givenrecognition,designSelection:evaluation,DynamiccauseordelaysrecyclescontinuedModelsprocesssimpledesigndecisionprocessesbasicdesigndecisionDecisionarewithintoobjectiveaandalternativelikelihoodgoal–makefirm’sdecisionallOfManagerMakerandfamiliar,structuredfordiscretion–facilitateseriesstepstowhatnotguidelinesdecisionManagerMakerandnew,whichortoproblems? producefrequentdecisionsworldprogrammedJianjun Zhang169。decisionVariable Type of DecisionroutineComplex,policiesConsiderabledecisionsNodecisionsTypicalsupervisors169。TypesLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWellstructuredIllstructuredTypeManagerMakerouteisrealistic– Riskestimateoutesalternative? expected valuereturnoute–multiplyeachprobabilityJianjun Zhang169。Revenuesof Jianjun ZhangTheDecision(cont.)– Uncertaintyabouttoofmaximumthe“regret”（大中取?。?69。Jianjun Zhang169。 Jianjun ZhangTheMakerwithinathatanprocesssolutionsenough”–escalation of mitmenttodespitemaytoinitialbeenofaprojectaction Negativetopersist NegativecostPressuretopersistSource:1997169。AStyles– twoapproachtofromconsistencythemanydecisionmakingefficient,carefuladaptnewtodecisions169。ofJianjun Zhang169。四輪馬車第一輛汽車169。 Jianjun Zhang可靠證據(jù)陷阱169。怎么 Jianjun Zhang表述陷阱情境：一艘，即挽救你20萬的貨物.方案二 這套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘總計 60萬的貨物；當(dāng)然有三分之二的概率什么都挽救不了.方案一如果你是風(fēng)險規(guī)避型，會選擇方案一。 Jianjun Zhang比較群體和個人決策 :三個臭皮匠頂?shù)牧酥T葛亮嗎？復(fù)雜問題 簡單問題2. Jianjun ZhangGroupMakingCriteriaofrationalmodelAssumptionsModelRationalityrationality BoundedaccessNumbersexperienceSelectionchoiceType169。本位主義.不同見解持有人力量的競爭？169。弱化風(fēng)險、有選擇的匯報信息216。如何才能做到呢？169。終止169。?感情上的，包括個人摩擦、敵對，會削減人們的合作熱情，讓決策過程變得沒有效率，是 Advocacy的一種特征 把團隊分成兩組 。在這些假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上 ,兩個組繼續(xù)討論各種可行性 ,并試圖提出一致性的建議 .由 B組形成一個詳細的批評建議 ,并用書面和口頭的形式提交給 A組 。 Jianjun Zhang二 .考慮 /體諒程序上的公平 — 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者做最終決策，但必須要讓過程中的參與者認為他們的觀點已被考慮到并且影響了最終的決定。實際上，這種方式并不如 Consideration來得重要。在討論過程中，決策者必須作出一副積極傾聽和關(guān)注的姿態(tài)。 Jianjun Zhang三 . Jianjun Zhang三 .?兩種表現(xiàn) :Manager(cont.)Rolesubconsciousdecisionsofjudgment?doesaanalysisplementsJianjun ZhangWhatexperienceDecisionsbasedonbasedontrainingIntuitionAffectinitiateddecisionsExperiencedbased decisionsValues orethicsbaseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitivebaseddecisions169。canDisorder,forforlookingmakersanarchyContinuedStreamsopportunities? consequences:solutionsdowithoutpersistfewUniversitiesPublicwithManagerial Jianjun Zhang演講完畢，謝謝觀看！
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