北大光華組織與管理week9-決策(完整版)
【正文】 Zhang169。 Jianjun Zhang沉沒(méi)成本陷阱169。foracceptanceabletoneedfromdefineManagerOutsidetoJianjun Zhang169。thatthatincreasedlimitedparametersAs Jianjun ZhangPayoffpossiblepayoff（大中取大）–maximinmaker–maximaxand(cont.)DecisionMakingSkiValuebyeachfromableeveryATheOffromonversuseitherhigherlevelpoorlyis(cont.)– PoorlyStructured ProblemsAparametersdostructuredinterrelatedtotoAtests169。economicachievinggoal–selectlogical–carefullyrationalvaluemaximizingManagerdecisionprocessbasicstrategicdelaysfeedbacksuddenevaluationchoice,customizeddecisionaproperly– Step 8 Evaluating Decision Effectiveness? determinedecision–decisioninbyconsidered– Step 7 Implementing the Alternative? implementationProcessAlternativesDecision Jianjun Zhangalternativethatappropriatea Jianjun ZhangDecisionMakingunlessunlikelysuchexistingProcess– aAlternativesImplementationofof Jianjun ZhangDecisionstoordecisionmakingconditionsthatdecision(cont.)Youintuitionrationalrationaldecisionto:– OutlineMAKING:THEObjectivesYoudecisionmakinginrationaltheprocess169。twotypesthem–Differentiateuncertainty–DescribedecisionmakingDecisions– choicesmakein Jianjun ZhangTheCriteriaDevelopmentofdiscrepancyoftoastorelevanttothewithoutcriteriaDecisionComputerof Jianjun ZhangDecisionfromtomitmenttoisresolved169。ModelEmpiricalcrisisSolutions:screen,ContinuedpacecyclesfailureprocessespoliticaldecisiondesignMaking– decisionsassumedwould:–beclearthethemeets Jianjun ZhangTheProblemsdefined– Programmed Decisionsneedrespondof Jianjun ZhangTheProblemsforusedresponse? morereal169。task Simple,pastworkersUpperlevelAnd Jianjun ZhangThethanofconditionalfromoute169。AdditionAcertainorientationthemaximizingmaximumJianjun Zhang169。rationallyprocessto“gooddecisionwrong?refusalhaveBeginegoSunkand(cont.)DecisionMakingmaking? way of thinkingdifferstofourwithsolutions? BehavioralStylesAnalyticDirective BehavioralRational IntuitiveWay Jianjun Zhang現(xiàn)狀陷阱 一家專業(yè)從事海上貨物打撈的公司給你兩種不同描述的選擇方案： Jianjun Zhang從不同的參考點(diǎn)構(gòu)思問(wèn)題情境：好的意見(jiàn)能夠被采納群體比個(gè)體好群體中的成員都有正確的答案嗎？群體成員會(huì)接受正確答案嗎？群體同最好的個(gè)人表現(xiàn)一樣好是群體不如最好的個(gè)人否169。 Jianjun Zhang民主與獨(dú)裁各自的優(yōu)勢(shì)開明專制的要求：咨詢式獨(dú)裁東亞國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)TheRationalityDecisionCompletechoice Satisfyingideas還是 Jianjun Zhang兩個(gè)決策例子 — 為何效果不同？相同的決策參與者，相同的政治環(huán)境，相同的重要性，為何結(jié)果不同？因?yàn)槿缦挛鍌€(gè)改變：?角色定位：由不同部門代表者變?yōu)楹脩岩傻耐ú牛?skeptical generalists)?組織者的改變：不僅組織、拍板，更要發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題（ intellectual watchdog)?平等化：忘記現(xiàn)有規(guī)則、等級(jí)差別?分組：因見(jiàn)解不同分組而不是因利益不同?弱化領(lǐng)導(dǎo)影響： Kennedy缺席初期討論決策過(guò)程從辯護(hù)式變?yōu)檎{(diào)查式。?形成兩方之間的對(duì)話，從而激勵(lì)辯論 Jianjun Zhang一 .建設(shè)性沖突：兩種方法兩個(gè)組坐到一起來(lái)討論這些計(jì)劃 ,并尋求一致的一系列假設(shè) 。很多經(jīng)理人通過(guò) “聲音 ”來(lái)體現(xiàn)他們的公平：任何人都有機(jī)會(huì)表達(dá)自己的觀點(diǎn)。 169。advocates的出現(xiàn)而變得流行。?鼓勵(lì)少數(shù)人的觀點(diǎn)：雖然很少被采納，但這些觀點(diǎn)深化和廣化了討論，拓寬了組織的思路。由于缺乏制動(dòng)機(jī)制，導(dǎo)致這種討論無(wú)休無(wú)止 。從而又落入無(wú)休止的圈中。Thebasisonproblem?generallybasedoncultureDecisionsModel:野渡無(wú)人舟自橫?GarbagelookingdecisionProblemsSolutio
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