【正文】 lide 18 Problem Identification and Framing (continued) ? When a problem is identified, it is framed in some way. ? A $10,000 expenditure can be framed as a cost or an investment. ? Different decision frames can lead to very different decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 19 Problem Identification and Framing (continued) ? Rational decision makers should be very selfconscious about how they have framed problems. ? They should try out alternative frames. ? They should avoid overarching, universal frames. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 20 Information Search ? The perfectly rational decision maker has free and instantaneous access to all information necessary to clarify the problem and develop alternative solutions. ? Bounded rationality suggests that information search can be slow and costly. ? Decision makers can have too little or too much information. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 21 Too Little Information ? Sometimes, decision makers do not acquire enough information to make a good decision. ? Several cognitive biases contribute to this such as using whatever information is most readily available and the tendency to be overconfident. ? Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to seek out information that conforms to one’s own definition of or solution to a problem. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 22 Too Much Information ? Too much information can also damage the quality of decisions. ? Information overload is the reception of more information than is necessary to make effective decisions. ? Information overload can lead to errors, omissions, delays, and cutting corners. ? Decision makers seem to think that more is better. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 23 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice ? The perfectly rational decision maker exhibits maximization – the choice of the decision alternative with the greatest expected value. ? For the decision maker working under bounded rationality, alternative solutions and probabilities of success are not all known. ? Cognitive biases also e into play. ? People are especially weak intuitive statisticians. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 24 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice (continued) ? People avoid incorporating existing data about the likelihood of events (“base rates”) into their decisions. ? Large samples warrant more confidence than small samples. ? Decision makers often overestimate the odds of plex chains of events occurring. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 25 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice (continued) ? People are poor at revising estimates of probabilities and values as they acquire additional information. ? The anchoring effect illustrates that decision makers do not adjust their estimates enough from some initial estimate that serves as an anchor. ? It is possible to reduce some of these cognitive biases by making people more accountable for their decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 26 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice (continued) ? The perfectly rational decision maker can evaluate alternative solutions against a single criterion – economic gain. ? The decision maker who is bounded by reality might have to factor in other criteria such as political acceptability. ? The decision maker working under bounded rationality frequently “satisfices” rather than maximizes. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 27 Satisficing ? Satisficing means that the decision maker establishes an adequate level of acceptability for a solution to a problem and then screens solutions until he or she finds one that exceeds this level. ? When this occurs, evaluation of alternatives ceases, and the solution is chosen for implementation. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 28 Risky Decision Making ? Choosing between decision alternatives often involves an element of risk. ? When people view a problem as a choice between losses, they tend to make risky decisions. ? When people frame the alternatives as a choice between gains they tend to make conservative decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 29 Risky Decision Making (continued) ? It is important to be aware of what reference point you are using when you frame decision alternatives. ? Framing a problem as a choice between losses can contribute to a foolish level of risk taking. ? Learning history can modify preferences for or against risk. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 30 Solution Implementation ? Decision makers are often dependent on others to implement their decisions, and it might be difficult to anticipate their ability or motivation to do so. ? Implementation problems often occur when those who must implement a decision are not the ones who made the decision. ? Crossfunctional teams can help prevent these kinds of implementation problems. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 31 Solution Evaluation ? The perfectly rational decision maker should be able to evaluate the effectiveness of a decision with calm, objective detachment. ? The bounded decision might encounter problems at this stage of the process: – Justification – Hindsight Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 32 Justification ? Substantial dissonance can be aroused when a decision turns out to be faulty. ? To prevent such dissonance, decision makers sometimes avoid careful evaluations or devote their energy