【正文】 :58:1211:58:12March 5, 2023 1意志堅強的人能把世界放在手中像泥塊一樣任意揉捏。 2023年 3月 上午 11時 58分 :58March 5, 2023 1少年十五二十時，步行奪得胡馬騎。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 11時 58分 12秒 11:58:125 March 2023 1做前，能夠環(huán)視四周；做時，你只能或者最好沿著以腳為起點的射線向前。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 77 靜夜四無鄰，荒居舊業(yè)貧。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 69 Stimulating and Managing Controversy (continued) ? These tactics must be managed carefully to ensure that open conflict does not occur. ? A devil’s advocate can be appointed to identify and challenge the weaknesses of a proposed plan or strategy. ? The controversy promoted by the devil’s advocate improves decision quality. ? To be effective, the advocate must present his or her views in an objective, unemotional manner. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 61 How Do Groups Handle Risk? (continued) ? A risky shift is the tendency for groups to make riskier decisions than the average risk initially advocated by their individual members. ? A conservative shift is the tendency for groups to make less risky decisions than the average risk initially advocated by their individual members. ? What determines which kind of shift occurs? Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 53 Do Groups Actually Make HigherQuality Decisions? (continued) – individual judgments can be bined by weighting them to reflect the expertise of the various members. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 48 Summary of Cognitive Biases in Decision Making Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 40 Hindsight (continued) ? Another form of faulty hindsight is the tendency to take personal responsibility for successful decision outes while denying responsibility for unsuccessful outes. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 32 Justification ? Substantial dissonance can be aroused when a decision turns out to be faulty. ? To prevent such dissonance, decision makers sometimes avoid careful evaluations or devote their energy to trying to justify a faulty decision. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 24 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice (continued) ? People avoid incorporating existing data about the likelihood of events (“base rates”) into their decisions. ? Large samples warrant more confidence than small samples. ? Decision makers often overestimate the odds of plex chains of events occurring. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 16 Cognitive Biases ? Cognitive biases are tendencies to acquire and process information in a particular way that is prone to error. ? They constitute assumptions and shortcuts that can improve decisionmaking efficiency, but they frequently lead to serious errors in judgment. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 10 The Compleat Decision Maker – A Rational DecisionMaking Model ? A rational decision maker might use a model that involves a sequence of steps that are followed when making a decision. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 2 Learning Objectives 1. Define decision making and differentiate wellstructured and illstructured problems. 2. Compare and contrast perfectly rational decision making with decision making under bounded rationality. 3. Discuss the impact of framing and cognitive biases on the decision process. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 7 WellStructured Problems (continued) ? Programs shortcircuit the decisionmaking process by enabling the decision maker to go directly from problem identification to solution. ? They are also known as rules, routines, standard operating procedures, or rules of thumb. ? They provide a useful means of solving well structured problems. ? Programs are only as good as the decisionmaking process that led to the adoption of the program in the first place. Copyright 169。 and – only criterion for decision making is economic gain. ? These perfectly rational characteristics do not exist in real decision makers. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 21 Too Little Information ? Sometimes, decision makers do not acquire enough information to make a good decision. ? Several cognitive biases contribute to this such as using whatever information is most readily available and the tendency to be overconfident. ? Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to seek out information that conforms to one’s own definition of or solution to a problem. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 29 Risky Decision Making (continued) ? It is important to be aware of what reference point you are using when you frame decision alternatives. ? Framing a problem as a choice between losses can contribute to a foolish level of risk taking. ? Learning history can modify preferences for or against risk. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 37 Preventing Escalation of Commitment ? Encourage continuous experimentation with reframing the problem. ? Set specific goals for the project in advance that must be met if more resources are to be invested. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 45 Rational Decision Making – A Summary ? The rational decisionmaking model provides a good guide for how many decisions should be made. ? It provides only a partially accurate view of how they are made. ? For plex, unfamiliar decisions, the rational model provides a pretty good picture of how people actually make decisions. Copyright 169。 – some division of labour can occur。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 58 Groupthink Symptoms ? Illusion of invulnerability ? Rationalization ?