【正文】 11:58:1211:58:1211:583/5/2023 11:58:12 AM 1越是沒(méi)有本領(lǐng)的就越加自命不凡。 11:58:1211:58:1211:58Sunday, March 5, 2023 1乍見(jiàn)翻疑夢(mèng)，相悲各問(wèn)年。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 65 How Do Groups Handle Risk? (continued) ? If this polarization results from the sensible exchange of information, it might actually improve the group’s decision. ? If it results from oneupmanship, it might lead to lowquality decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 52 Do Groups Actually Make HigherQuality Decisions? ? Is the frequent use of groups to make decisions warranted by evidence? ? Groups should perform better than individuals when: – the group members differ in relevant skills and abilities, as long as they do not differ so much that conflict occurs。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 36 Escalation of Commitment (continued) ? Reasons for escalation of mitment: – Dissonance reduction. – Social norm for consistent behaviour. – Motivation to not appear wasteful. – The way the problem is framed. – Personality, moods, and emotions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 20 Information Search ? The perfectly rational decision maker has free and instantaneous access to all information necessary to clarify the problem and develop alternative solutions. ? Bounded rationality suggests that information search can be slow and costly. ? Decision makers can have too little or too much information. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 6 WellStructured Problems ? A problem for which the existing state is clear, the desired state is clear, and how to get from one state to another is fairly obvious. ? These problems are simple, and their solutions arouse little controversy. ? They are repetitive and familiar and they can be programmed. ? A program is a standardized way of solving a problem. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 11 The Rational Decision Making Process Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 25 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice (continued) ? People are poor at revising estimates of probabilities and values as they acquire additional information. ? The anchoring effect illustrates that decision makers do not adjust their estimates enough from some initial estimate that serves as an anchor. ? It is possible to reduce some of these cognitive biases by making people more accountable for their decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 41 How Emotion and Mood Affect Decision Making ? Strong emotions frequently figure in the decision making process. ? Emotions can help decision making but strong emotions can also be a hindrance. ? Mood affects what and how people think when making decisions. ? Mood has the greatest impact on uncertain, ambiguous decisions of the type that are especially crucial for anizations. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 54 Disadvantages of Group Decision Making ? Time – The time it takes to make a decision increases with group size. ? Conflict – Decision quality can take a back seat to political wrangling and infighting. – Groups will make better decisions when members feel psychologically safe. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 70 Traditional Brainstorming ? Brainstorming is an attempt to increase the number of creative solution alternatives to problems by focusing on idea generation rather than evaluation. ? It was originally conceived as a group technique. ? Research has shown that individuals working alone tend to generate more ideas than when in groups. Copyright 169。 上午 11時(shí) 58分 12秒 上午 11時(shí) 58分 11:58: 沒(méi)有失敗，只有暫時(shí)停止成功！。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 上午 11時(shí) 58分 12秒 11:58: 1最具挑戰(zhàn)性的挑戰(zhàn)莫過(guò)于提升自我。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 上午 11時(shí) 58分 12秒 11:58: 1楚塞三湘接，荊門九派通。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 76 The Delphi Technique (continued) ? The heart of Delphi is a series of questionnaires sent to respondents. ? The main disadvantage is the rather lengthy time frame involved in the questionnaire phases. ? Its effectiveness depends on the writing skills of respondents and their interest in the problem. ? It is an efficient method of pooling a large number of expert judgments while avoiding the problems of conformity and domination that occur in interacting groups. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 60 How Do Groups Handle Risk? ? Do groups make decisions that are more or less risky than those of individuals? ? Will the degree of risk assumed by the group simply equal the average risk preferred by its individual members? ? Group decisions can involve risky and conservative shifts, and they occur in a wide variety of settings. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 47 Perfectly Rational Decision Making Contrasted with Bounded Rationality Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 31 Solution Evaluation ? The perfectly rational decision maker should be able to evaluate the effectiveness of a decision with calm, objective detachment. ? The bounded decision might encounter problems at this stage of the process: – Justification – Hindsight Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 15 Bounded Rationality (continued) ? Framing and cognitive biases illustrate the operation of bounded rationality, as does the impact of emotions and mood on decisions. ? Framing refers to the aspects of the presentation of information about a problem that are assumed by decision makers. ? How problems and decision alternatives are framed can have a powerful impact on resulting decisions. Copyright 169。Chapter 11 / Slide 1 Chapter 11 Decision Ma