【正文】 is a decision strategy that relies on limited information and that reflects time constraints and political considerations. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 8 IllStructured Problem ? A problem for which the existing and desired states are unclear and the method of getting to the desired state is unknown. ? Unique and unusual problems that have not been encountered before. ? They tend to be plex and involve a high degree of uncertainty. ? They frequently arouse controversy and conflict. Copyright 169。Chapter 11 / Slide 1 Chapter 11 Decision Making Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 9 IllStructured Problem (continued) ? They cannot be solved with programmed decisions. ? Decision makers must resort to nonprogrammed decision making. ? They can entail high risk and stimulate strong political considerations. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 15 Bounded Rationality (continued) ? Framing and cognitive biases illustrate the operation of bounded rationality, as does the impact of emotions and mood on decisions. ? Framing refers to the aspects of the presentation of information about a problem that are assumed by decision makers. ? How problems and decision alternatives are framed can have a powerful impact on resulting decisions. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 23 Alternative Development, Evaluation, and Choice ? The perfectly rational decision maker exhibits maximization – the choice of the decision alternative with the greatest expected value. ? For the decision maker working under bounded rationality, alternative solutions and probabilities of success are not all known. ? Cognitive biases also e into play. ? People are especially weak intuitive statisticians. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 31 Solution Evaluation ? The perfectly rational decision maker should be able to evaluate the effectiveness of a decision with calm, objective detachment. ? The bounded decision might encounter problems at this stage of the process: – Justification – Hindsight Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 39 Hindsight ? The evaluation of decisions is also inhibited by faulty hindsight. ? Hindsight refers to the tendency to review the decisionmaking process that was used to find what was done right or wrong. ? It often reflects a cognitive bias. ? It is the tendency to assume, after the fact, that we knew all along what the oute of a decision would be. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 47 Perfectly Rational Decision Making Contrasted with Bounded Rationality Copyright 169。 and Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 60 How Do Groups Handle Risk? ? Do groups make decisions that are more or less risky than those of individuals? ? Will the degree of risk assumed by the group simply equal the average risk preferred by its individual members? ? Group decisions can involve risky and conservative shifts, and they occur in a wide variety of settings. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 68 Stimulating and Managing Controversy ? There are a variety of ways to stimulate controversy in decisionmaking groups: – Incorporating members with diverse ideas and backgrounds. – Forming subgroups to “tear the problem apart.” – Establishing norms that favour the open sharing of information. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 76 The Delphi Technique (continued) ? The heart of Delphi is a series of questionnaires sent to respondents. ? The main disadvantage is the rather lengthy time frame involved in the questionnaire phases. ? Its effectiveness depends on the writing skills of respondents and their interest in the problem. ? It is an efficient method of pooling a large number of expert judgments while avoiding the problems of conformity and domination that occur in interacting groups. Copyright 169。 2023年 3月 上午 11時 58分 :58March 5, 2023 1行動出成果，工作出財富。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 上午 11時 58分 12秒 11:58: 1楚塞三湘接，荊門九派通。勝人者有力，自勝者強(qiáng)。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 上午 11時 58分 12秒 11:58: 1最具挑戰(zhàn)性的挑戰(zhàn)莫過于提升自我。 2023年 3月 5日星期日 11時 58分 12秒 11:58:125 March 2023 1空山新雨后，天氣晚來秋。 上午 11時 58分 12秒 上午 11時 58分 11:58: 沒有失敗，只有暫時停止成功！。 , March 5, 2023 雨中黃葉樹，燈下白頭人。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 70 Traditional Brainstorming ? Brainstorming is an attempt to increase the number of creative solution alternatives to problems by focusing on idea generation rather than evaluation. ? It was originally conceived as a group technique. ? Research has shown that individuals working alone tend to generate more ideas than when in groups. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 62 How Do Groups Handle Risk? (continued) ? A key factor appears to be the initial positions of the group members before they discuss the problem. ? Group discussion seems to polarize or exaggerate the initial position of the group: – Somewhat conservative members exhibit a conservative shift when they discuss the problem. – Somewhat risky members exhibit a risky shift after discussion. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 54 Disadvantages of Group Decision Making ? Time – The time it takes to make a decision increases with group size. ? Conflict – Decision quality can take a back seat to political wrangling and infighting. – Groups will make better decisions when members feel psychologically safe. Copyright 169。 2023 Pearson Canada Inc. Chapter 11 / Slide 49 Group Decision Making ? Many anizational decisions are made by groups, especially when problems are ill structured. ? Why use groups for decisionmaking? Copy