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1981年巴菲特財務(wù)報告-閱讀頁

2024-09-11 13:44本頁面
  

【正文】 e performance to be illusory as a measure of true investment results for our owners. We applaud the efforts of Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker and note the currently more moderate increases in various price indices. Nevertheless, our views regarding longterm inflationary trends are as negative as ever. Like virginity, a stable price level seems capable of maintenance, but not of restoration. 過去我們曾解釋通貨膨脹是如何使我們的帳面表現(xiàn)比經(jīng)濟實質(zhì)要好看的多,我們對 Fed(聯(lián)邦準(zhǔn)備理事會 )主席 Volcker 先生所作的努力使得現(xiàn)在所有的物價指數(shù)能溫和 的成長表示感謝,儘管如此,我們?nèi)詫ξ磥淼耐ㄅ蜈厔莞械奖^,就像是童真一樣, 穩(wěn)定的物價只能維持現(xiàn)狀,卻沒有辦法使其恢復(fù)原狀。 inflation itself will be punishment enough. (Copies of previous discussions are available for masochists.) But, because of the unrelenting destruction of currency values, our corporate efforts will continue to do a much better job of filling your wallet than of filling your stomach. 儘管通膨?qū)ν顿Y來講實在是太重要了,但我不會再折磨你們把我們的觀點在複述一 遍,因為通膨本身對大家的折磨就已足夠了 (若誰有被虐狂可向我索取複本 ) ,但由於 通膨間斷不止的使貨幣貶值,公司只能儘力的使你的皮夾滿滿,更勝於填飽你的肚子。 But is it? Several decades back, a return on equity of as little as 10% enabled a corporation to be classified as a “good” business ., one in which a dollar reinvested in the business logically could be expected to be valued by the market at more than one hundred cents. For, with longterm taxable bonds yielding 5% and longterm taxexempt bonds 3%, a business operation that could utilize equity capital at 10% clearly was worth some premium to investors over the equity capital employed. That was true even though a bination of taxes on dividends and on capital gains would reduce the 10% earned by the corporation to perhaps 6%8% in the hands of the individual investor. 但事實真是如此嗎 ?? 過去數(shù)十年來,一家公司的股東權(quán)益報酬率只要超過 10%,便可 以被歸類為一家優(yōu)良企業(yè),所以當(dāng)我們把一塊錢投入到這家公司,其將來能產(chǎn)生的經(jīng) 濟效益將會大於一塊錢, (考量到當(dāng)時長期債券殖利率約為 5%,而免稅公債則約 3%), 因為即使考量稅負成本,實際到投資人手中仍能有 6%8%。 That day is gone. But the lessons learned during its existence are difficult to discard. While investors and managers must place their feet in the future, their memories and nervous systems often remain plugged into the past. It is much easier for investors to utilize historic p/e ratios or for managers to utilize historic business valuation yardsticks than it is for either group to rethink their premises daily. When change is slow, constant rethinking is actually undesirable?!雇顿Y大眾慣於利用歷史 的本益比而經(jīng)營階層則習(xí)慣用傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但卻不去深思其前提是否早已改 變,但現(xiàn)狀的改變極其緩慢,那麼持續(xù)不斷地思考便變得相當(dāng)必要,而一旦變化快速, 則拘泥於昨日的假設(shè)將會付出極大的代價,而目前經(jīng)濟步調(diào)的變動速度快到令人窒息。 Thus, with interest rates on passive investments at late 1981 levels, a typical American business is no longer worth one hundred cents on the dollar to owners who are individuals. (If the business is owned by pension funds or other taxexempt investors, the arithmetic, although still unenticing, changes substantially for the better.) Assume an investor in a 50% tax bracket。 If, on the other hand, all earnings of our typical American business are retained and return on equity again remains constant, earnings will grow at 14% per year. If the p/e ratio remains constant, the price of our typical stock will also grow at 14% per year. But that 14% is not yet in the pocket of the shareholder. Putting it there will require the payment of a capital gains tax, presently assessed at a maximum rate of 20%. This return, of course, works out to a poorer rate of return than the currently available passive aftertax rate. 但如果把所有盈餘都保留起來,而報酬率維持不變,則盈餘每年會以14%的速度增加, 又假設(shè)本益比不變,則公司的股價每年也會以 14%的比例增加,但增加的部份卻不算 是已落入股東的口袋,因為收回去的話需要付最高約 20%的資本利得稅,所以不管怎 麼說,還是比最基本的免稅公債 14%低。 Most American businesses pay out a significant portion of their earnings and thus fall between the two examples. And most American businesses are currently “bad” businesses economically producing less for their individual investors aftertax than the taxexempt passive rate of return on money. Of course, some highreturn businesses still remain attractive, even under present conditions. But American equity capital, in aggregate, produces no valueadded for individual investors. 多數(shù)的美國公司都把大部份的盈餘分配出去,所以算是介於兩個極端的例子之間,而 大部份美國公司目前的稅後投資報酬率卻都比投資免稅債券還差,當(dāng)然也有少數(shù)例 外,但如今總的來說,美國公司並未為投資人貢獻任何附加的價值。 there are few industries in which the prospects seem bright for substantial gains in return on equity. 但要強調(diào)的是,我並不是說所有美國公司表現(xiàn)的比以往差,事實上,反而是比以前還 要好一點,只是最低門檻比以前提高了許多,而遺憾的是,大部分的企業(yè)對此皆束手 無策,只能祈求門檻能夠大幅降低,極少有產(chǎn)業(yè)能為股東賺取高投資報酬的。 A further, particularly ironic, punishment is inflicted by an inflationary environment upon the owners of the “bad” business. To continue operating in its present mode, such a lowreturn business usually must retain much of its earnings no matter what penalty such a policy produces for shareholders. 而通貨膨脹對於體質(zhì)不佳的企業(yè)來說,更是雪上加霜,為了要維持既有的營業(yè)規(guī)模, 這類低投資報酬率的公司往往必須保留住大部分的盈餘,不管對於股東的權(quán)益有多大 的損害也莫可奈何。 What makes sense for the bondholder makes sense for the shareholder. Logically, a pany with historic and prospective high returns on equity should retain much or all of its earnings so that shareholders can earn premium returns on enhanced capital. Conversely, low returns on corporate equity would suggest a very high dividend payout so that owners could direct capital toward more attractive areas. (The Scriptures concur. In the parable of the talents, the two highearning servants are rewarded with 100% retention of earnings and encouraged to expand their operations. However, the nonearning third servant is not only chastised “wicked and slothful” but also is required to redirect all of his capital to the top performer. Matthew 25: 1430) 這種債券投資的道理也適用於股票投資之上,理論上如果說這家公司報酬率相對較 高,那麼把盈餘留在公司繼續(xù)投資下去,但若這家公司報酬率差,那麼為何不把賺的 盈餘分配給股東,讓股東自己去尋找其他報酬率較高投資機會呢 ??(古經(jīng)文亦贊同 :有個 三個 僕人的寓言,老天爺讓其中二個會賺錢的僕人,保留他們所賺的錢並鼓勵他們擴
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