4食品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估-在線瀏覽
2025-04-09 05:20本頁面
【正文】 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征 Hazard Identification 危害定義 Hazard charac terization 危害特征 Exposure Assessment 暴露評(píng)估 Chance of getting accident: Estimate: 事故發(fā)生的幾率計(jì)算： P=% 177。 MRA 45 Issues in Exposure Assessment 暴露評(píng)估中的問題 ?Available data and models on inactivation and / or growth of pathogens do not apply across the whole food chain up to the point of consumption 有關(guān)失活的或生長的病菌的可用數(shù)據(jù)和模型不能代表整個(gè)食品鏈（最終到食用） MRA 46 Issues in Exposure Assessment 暴露評(píng)估中的問題 ? Recontamination after production or preparation often not considered 經(jīng)常不考慮生產(chǎn)和制備過程中的再污染 ? Uncertainty and variability in data and models are often not transparent 不能明確數(shù)據(jù)和模型的不確定性和可變性 MRA 47 The quantitative and/or qualitative estimation of the probability of occurrence and severity of defined adverse health effects in a given population due to the consumption of a certain pathogen / food bination 特定人群食用了含病菌食品后，定量、定性估計(jì)產(chǎn)生不利影響的的可能性及其嚴(yán)重程度 Risk Characterisation (1) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征（ 1） Purpose目的 MRA 48 Risk Characterization (2) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征（ 2） Estimated number of cases of a certain illness per year per persons in a given population caused by a certain microanism (or number of microanisms) in a certain food 測定特定人群由特定食物中特定微生物引起的特定疾病的每年每 10萬人的發(fā)病次數(shù) Should include attendant uncertainties 應(yīng)包括服務(wù)員的不確定性 Risk Estimate for a food 某種食品的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì) MRA 49 ? Define microanism and its virulence 定義微生物及其毒性 ? Define target consumer group and effect 定義目標(biāo)消費(fèi)群和影響 ? Determine fate of microanism during production, distribution, preparation use 測定微生物在生產(chǎn)、運(yùn)輸、制備和食用過程中的命運(yùn) Calculation of Risk Estimate 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)的計(jì)算 MRA 50 ? Determine consumption habits 測定消費(fèi)習(xí)慣 ? Use specific doseresponse data 使用特定的劑量 反應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù) ? Calculate risk estimate with attendant uncertainties (assumptions specified!) 用伴隨物的不確定性（特殊的消費(fèi)）計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 Calculation of Risk Estimate 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的計(jì)算 MRA 51 Exemples of risk estimate 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)的例子 00 ,0 50 ,10 ,1 50 ,20 ,2 51211109 8 7 6 5 4l o g10 ( r i s k / s e r v i n g )probabilityMRA 52 Variability 可變性 Variability is a property of nature, the diversity of things. Cannot be reduced through further study or additional measurements. 可變性是自然天性，體現(xiàn)了事件的多樣性。 Lammerding, 1999 MRA 53 Uncertainty 不確定性 ??? Uncertainty is our ignorance lack of knowledge. In many cases, it can be reduced through further study or expert information. 不確定性由缺乏知識(shí)造成，在許多案例中，可以通過深入研究或?qū)＜倚畔斫档??！白畈畎咐钡姆桨甘且浴鞍踩吘墶睘槟繕?biāo)。 MRA 56 . probability of illness associated with one serving 例：與某一食物有關(guān)的疾病的可能性 lowrisk population 低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)人群 highrisk population 高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)人群 00 ,0 50 ,10 ,1 50 ,20 ,2 5 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4l o g10 ( r i s k / s e r v i n g )probability00,050,10,150,20,250,312 11 109 8 7 6 5 4log10 (ris k / s erv ing)probabilityMRA 57 Sensitivity analysis 敏感性分析 When the pathogen / product pathway analysis is modelled, sensitivity analysis allows to determine which factor(s) have the greatest influen
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