【正文】 already being seen now in areas from robocalls to lightsout manufacturing. Economic efficiency will be the driver. The social consequence is that goodpaying jobs will be increasingly scarce.” g 11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Argument 2: The consequences for ine inequality will be profound For those who expect AI and robotics to significantly displace human employment, these displacements seem certain to lead to an increase in ine inequality, a continued hollowing out of the middle class, and even riots, social unrest, and/or the creation of a permanent, unemployable “underclass”. Justin Reich, a fellow at Harvard University39。t ensure employment driven demand it will bee increasingly less petitive.” Geoff Livingston, author and president of Tenacity5 Media, wrote, “I see the movement towards AI and robotics as evolutionary, in large part because it is such a sociological leap. The technology may be ready, but we are not—at least, not yet.” An equally large group of experts takes a diametrically opposed view of technology?s impact on employment. In their reading of history, job displacement as a result of technological advancement is clearly in evidence today, and can only be expected to get worse as automation es to the whitecollar world. Argument 1: Displacement of workers from automation is already happening—and about to get much worse Jerry Michalski, founder of REX, the Relationship Economy eXpedition, sees the logic of the slow and unrelenting movement in the direction of more automation: “Automation is Voldemort: the terrifying force nobody is willing to name. Oh sure, we talk about it now and then, but usually in passing. We hardly dwell on the fact that someone trying to pick a career path that is not likely to be automated will have a very hard time making that choice. Xray technician? Outsourced already, and automation in progress. The race between automation and human work is won by g 10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER automation, and as long as we need fiat currency to pay the rent/mortgage, humans will fall out of the system in droves as this shift takes place…The safe zones are services that require local human effort (gardening, painting, babysitting), distant human effort (editing, coaching, coordinating), and highlevel thinking/relationship building. Everything else falls in the targetrich environment of automation.” Mike Roberts, Inter pioneer and Hall of Fame member and longtime leader with ICANN and the Inter Society, shares this view: “Electronic human avatars with substantial work capability are years, not decades away. The situation is exacerbated by total failure of the economics munity to address to any serious degree sustainability issues that are destroying the modern ?consumerist? model and undermining the early 20th century notion of ?a fair day39。t do that most human of all things: emotionally connect with her.” Michael Glassman, associate professor at the Ohio State University, wrote, “I think AI will do a few more things, but people are going to be surprised how limited it is. There will be greater differentiation between what AI does and what humans do, but also much more realization that AI will not be able to engage the critical tasks that humans do.” Argument 4: The technology will not advance enough in the next decade to substantially impact the job market Another group of experts feels that the impact on employment is likely to be minimal for the simple reason that 10 years is too short a timeframe for automation to move substantially beyond the factory floor. David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT?s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, noted, “The larger trend to consider is the peration of automation into service jobs. This trend will require new skills for the service industry, which may challenge some of the lowertier workers, but in 12 years I do not think autonomous devices will be truly autonomous. I think they will allow us to deliver a higher level of service with the same level of human involvement.” Jari Arkko, Inter expert for Ericsson and chair of the Inter Engineering Task Force, wrote, “There is no doubt that these technologies affect the types of jobs that need to be done. But there are only 12 years to 2025, some of these technologies will take a long time to deploy in significant scale…We39。t do, such as services that require thinking, 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g creativity, synthesizing, problemsolving, and innovating…Advances in AI and robotics allow people to cognitively offload repetitive tasks and invest their attention and energy in things where humans can make a difference. We already have cars that talk to us, a phone we can talk to, robots that lift the elderly out of bed, and apps that remind us to call Mom. An app can dial Mom39。cars39。 cars will be totally unmanned. The human39。t think all 39。human hand39。t allow the answ er that I feel strongly is accurate—too hard to predict. There will be a vast displacement of labor over the next decade. That is true. But, if we had gone back 15 years who would have thought that ?search engine optimization? would be a significant job category?” Marjory Blumenthal, a science and technology policy analyst, wrote, “In a given context, automated devices like robots may displace more than they create. But they also generate new categories of work, giving rise to second and thirdorder effects. Also, there is likely to be more humanrobot collaboration—a change in the kind of work opportunities available. The wider impacts are the hardest to predict。t think the human race can retire en masse by 2025.” Argument 2: Advances in technology create new jobs and industries even as they displace some of the older ones